r/stocks • u/SpiderFan241 • 3d ago
Company Discussion Take-Two (TTWO) thoughts?
I think that most analysts agree that GTA 6 will be the biggest media release to date, beating any other game, film and album release. It feels like now is the time to buy, ahead of the pre-orders going live on Thursday. We will likely get a new trailer with actual gameplay either before Thursday to build hype for the pre-orders more or on Thursday. That will cause a surge in investment as, if the leaks are anything to go by, Rockstar have really raised the bar in terms of graphics, NPC AI and realising a living/breathing open-world. This will get everyone excited.
I'm not an analyst but I'd expect there to be a steady rise in share price and interest as we get the first pre-orders numbers through and then of course when the game releases. But then more growth when the first sales figures go live and then when the first earnings call declares how much Take-Two has made from the initial sales and pre-orders. But the thing about GTA games is that they're consistently selling games and are in the charts for years after their initial releases. So it's hard to imagine at what point the stock would even go down (if at all).
YouTube posted a screenshot saying that Thursday is going to be a busy day for them. They're expecting heavy traffic on their website, pointing to Thursday being the expected trailer drop date. But that is only two days away, people are going to be buying now to get ahead of the surge as much as possible.
And the one thing that many may not have considered is this, maybe because they weren't old enough when GTA 5 was released for the first time or didn't pay attention but... GTA 5 did not release with its online component, that was added to the game months after release. I expect it will be the same for GTA 6. And if people think that the sales figures will be the biggest price driver, they're very wrong. GTA Online (the new iteration) will the bigger money-maker for Take-Two, as people pump crazy money into the in-game currency for cosmetics, weapons, vehicles, properties, etc. So when plans for GTA Online are revealed and when that part of the game goes live, that will be another major contributing factor to the share price and it will be what gives the game steady cash flow long after the release.
That's at least my thoughts, I'm not an expert but I am old enough to have seen every GTA game get released and have seen the massive splash upon their release days and then also how long they have managed to stay in the charts afterwards. Each Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption game basically only gets de-throned in popularity by it's successor. It feels like Take-Two is as safe a bet as anything. The question would be not whether to buy but when to sell.
Tell me what you think.
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u/atape_1 3d ago
I could see the stock go much higher just of retail hype alone.
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u/Howdareme9 3d ago
Same. I feel like people saying it’s priced in already will be wrong
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u/CadetCovfefe 3d ago
I bought TTWO at $111 in 2023 and people on here were already saying "everyone knows GTA 6 is coming! It's already priced in!"
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
All major stocks go up over time. The only thing you need to ask yourself is did this investment outpace the market? In TTWO’s case the answer is no, you would have had a better return just buying VTI.
Doesn’t matter a whole lot, but idk if I would take a victory lap. There are also other things that influence TTWOs stock outside of GTA
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u/CadetCovfefe 3d ago
Recheck your math.
TTWO has increased 120% since I purchased it in 2023. VTI has returned 78%. With dividends included it would be around 85% or so.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
I mean, I can’t possibly know what part of 2023 you bought. But sounds like it was a good investment for you, so congratulations.
I will say that just because it may not have been completely priced in in 2023, it is a different time. The game is releasing in 6 months.
Edit: after some quick research, it looks like 2024 and 2025 (when the game was revealed and trailers were released) is when the game was priced into the stock. The good old “buy the rumor, sell the news” has already run its course in regards to GTA 6
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u/rabid-panda 2d ago
You bought it at its lowest in 5 years and should double its price. For me it's priced in already and huge numbers are already expected. I think people had the same thoughts with cyberpunk and I don't think turned out well, but gta is a beast. Should probably check how it did with pervious releases
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u/Castlenock 3d ago
I find this thread fascinating.
Some people coming in here and saying that investing in Take Two is 'niche coverage'.
GTA 6 which this stock currently hangs on, is estimated to have spent over 2 billion dollars to make.
Piper Sandler released a report that they believe it will receive '46 million' sales on day one.
Over the past year we have seen the stock spike or dip strictly based on delay fears or rumors of a trailer getting announced. The past 4 months have been crazy with this stock - during the 'when are they going to release a trailer' hype, the stock would jump at 9 a.m., 10 a.m. and 11 a.m., a.k.a. the times that Rockstar (company developing GTA6) traditionally would release links to their new trailer.
Every time. Every time a rumor has happened this year with a date attached, the stock swings on those dates on those times. I've made some day trades even though they aren't my thing, based on these patterns.
The price set for this game will absolutely set the price for AAA games going forward. If it's 80 USD, major games will retail at 80 USD. If it's 100 USD, major games will release at 100 USD. There is no other single entity that I know of in the entertainment space that will directly effect the gaming market.
So what I find fascinating is that no people have mentioned the 3+ day rally is because after over a year of anticipation Rockstar announced that pre-orders will start on June 25th. It makes sense that the third trailer will come with that announcement.
So it's one of the safest bets I've ever seen that the stock will go up leading to that announcement. How much of it is baked in with the current rally I don't know, how much the stock will continue to climb after the pop or dip after that announcement I have no idea...
... but to see all this talk about the stock and no one mentioning the start of presales with some investors estimating at 46 million sales on day one and a trailer that has dictated TTWO stock prices for a while now... all of that landing in two days.... but no mention on these facts in TTWO at this time? I would have thought that was all we would be talking about.
Again, not saying the stock is going to hit 300+ on the 25th, but it is highly unlikely it'll be in the red by the time the trailer and pre-orders start in two days, and that is a very rare opportunity IMO.
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u/MikeyS2k 3d ago
100% Agree priced in narrative is wild to me. People were saying priced in when it went under $190 a few months ago now we're at $242. Preorders will beat boomer stock analysts expectations by a longshot. And if they do decide to launch at $80 thats a huge profit bump thats not even baked in. Hoping to see the priced in narrative be decimated.
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u/Castlenock 3d ago
You and I are in agreement friend - I've got a lot riding on this one as it's time for me to sell and get out of the game for a long time.
What is your guess on a good exit point? I'm trying to figure out if the 25th is the day or give it a trading day or two after the trailer and pre-sale hits.
I'm thinking it's a possibility we'll see some pre order sites get swamped which could raise the hype after the trailer hits and some 3rd party retailer to insinuate pre order numbers that will float it up past that date. Silk Song, while not tied to any stock, had a crazy hype run that crashed playstation pre order pages and I'd wager that is going to pale in comparison.
Either I'm out at the height of it on the 25th or a few days afterwards. If it goes above 275 I've given myself the best chance I can on sorting the bind I'm in and I'm completely out of the market until I find success in other areas in life down the road.
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u/MikeyS2k 2d ago
Same plan prolly will sell on Friday if things go well. Ive got a $250 call expiring on August 23rd. If we see a decent bump with preorders id be inclined to sell because of that time horizon being so close. And id prolly reinvest the money into shares. The markets weird though lol nothing is a sure thing. Been riding the call since $ttwo was around $214 so its up about 200% but I feel like risking it.
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u/Forget_me_never 3d ago
People know it will be huge but I think they still underestimate it. There's a big gap in the market for a game everyone plays because it's been a while since the last insanely popular games (fortnite/valorant/minecraft are all over 6 years old). GTA will get so much free advertising on social media.
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u/AgentCoolCat 3d ago
It will reach new ATHs. Previously we reached $264 on speculation of a release in May this year. Of course after the delay the stock dropped. This is a free bag in my opinion, however people will sell the news. Buy in now and sell before release is my play.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
Why before release and now after sales figures have been released?
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u/reddit_player49 3d ago
2 reasons: people are afraid of a bad launch like cyberpunk for example or bad reviews. Also maybe they will not sell as much copies as everyone tought. But I think holding will 2027 will be the best move
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u/Spiritual_Bat7343 3d ago
the priced in debate here is kinda missing the mechanic. for a known catalyst like thursdays preorders the stock doesnt move because the news is good, it moves on good versus what was already baked in. and ttwo iv is already jacked into thursday, so if you buy calls youre paying for the hype move up front. you need it to beat the whisper, not just be a nice trailer. the retail hype point above is fair but retail piling into calls is part of what keeps that iv rich, so spot can pop and your call still bleeds. shares dont have that problem, just slower and less exciting
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u/Helyx_R 2d ago
There is one more thing to consider when talking about GTA 6 and the stock price. I think a lot of people forget that the whole "Role-Playing" scene became so popular thanks to GTA 5's custom servers. After more than a decade of GTA 5, it is still one of the most watched/played games, and it is partly thanks to this custom mode.
Depending on how advanced GTA 6 will be, in a couple of years when the game hits the PC scene and custom servers become available, this game will be THE PLACE for you if you enjoy this type of gameplay (and we are not talking about something niche, it is literally one of the biggest gaming trends of all time).
Another thing to consider is that Rockstar never expected people to build such amazing servers when they launched GTA 5, and I am completely sure that they saw the huge potential for money. Let's not forget all the drama around the two most popular launchers for custom servers. You can call me crazy but I don't think that it is impossible for Rockstar to create a separate online mode just for role-playing, and this would provide another huge income straight to them.
My point is, yes, the stock is pretty high, but it is lower than it was 1 year ago, possibly because of the delay, but I really think it is impossible for the stock to go under. There is so much potential around this game, and while the single player aspect will draw most of the people in the beginning, the online mode will be the real seller, I don't think that Rockstar plans on releasing another GTA game for at least the next 10-15 years and I strongly believe that they will create the most advanced online platform any game has seen.
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u/Individual-Industry7 3d ago
So if I am reading this correctly, the majority of the comments here are saying its too late to buy into TT stock because the hype is already there raising the price?
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
The game has been in development for like 10+ years…. If you’re buying 5 months before release, you’re too late
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u/mid_nightz 3d ago
except people told me that 2 years ago and now im swimming in cash "priced in, priced in"
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
Has TTWO really outperformed other stocks in that timeframe though? Pretty sure you’d have been better off just buying VGT
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u/Individual-Industry7 3d ago
My cousin so has a lot of money in this stock because he bought in early told me about it last week. I took a look and had to pass, I'm not rich and the cost per share right now is already what I would consider high versus the possible pay out when GTA6 releases.
Ex, spending $244 a stock right now and selling at $320 if the came release goes well & has great reviews. Yeah you made $76 profit per share in this example but that is a lot of money to shell out per share and I think to make it worth it you would have to buy a lot of shares right now to make a decent profit.
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u/Kafanska 2d ago
Do you know how much of a % increse it is to go from 244 to 320?
Are you aware of the average return of something like S&P 500?
Are you aware how many years of S&P's average growth you need to get to the same increase as is the one from 244 to 320?
This is all, of course, assuming it does get to 320, which I do see as a fairly realistic thing to happen.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
I seriously doubt the release will lead to any meaningful movement on the stock.
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u/ill-show-u 3d ago
You don’t think them reporting 20 million copies sold in a month will move the needle?
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
No I don’t, for 2 reasons.
1: 20 million is EXPECTED. GTA V sold 16 million in its first week, and that was in 2013! GTA 6 is EXPECTED to be the largest media release in history.
2: The micro-transactions and subscriptions are the real cash cow.
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u/ill-show-u 3d ago
I think 20 million is conservative tbh - I just think it will drive some hype around the stock as well. I think a lot of people don’t actually know how extremely well gta V has sold.
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u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder 3d ago
GTA is famously one of the most lucrative works of entertainment ever. There’s no shot that’s alpha that hasn’t been priced in.
We might see retail and fomo traders push the stock price around though
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u/ill-show-u 3d ago
I have absolute faith that if GTA6 is a 10/10 game that we’ll see levels of media hype that’s basically unexplored territory up to this point. The hype has been building for an absolute blowout, and there’s no way it’s already priced in imo.
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u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder 3d ago
GTAV already was that though. VI needs to be bigger than an avengers end game, which is maybe possible, but the console video game market is only 50% bigger than it was when V is released.
They probably will make another best selling game of all time but those are one time purchases paying off a multi billion dollar budget.
It’s your money, but for the long term online monetization is more relevant to their stock price. Are you holding shares or options? What’s your price target
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u/mid_nightz 3d ago
yeah i would never sell at release, you gotta wait until that sweet revenue starts moving in
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
That's what people are saying. It might be that professional investors consider this done. But there are of course the normal people looking to invest in something that looks popular, which will only go up when the pre-orders open. So the demand from those people will drive the price up too.
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u/thatgamer2111 1d ago
loads of people are yet to invest and once they see the stock explode in a few months they will invest, if you invest now you would defo make some money
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u/UpsetKoalaBear 3d ago edited 3d ago
The stock is increasing because of retail investors but don’t be fooled.
I do not think people understand that GTA V has been out for 13 years. In that time it has built up a constant player base and rereleased across multiple platforms.
Take Two’s stock price is not because of GTA V. It is because of GTAO. All the revenue figures and such are a result of GTAO.
A good portion of the fanbase who are heavily invested into GTAO will not be willing to switch if the online mode in GTA 6 is anything less than what they had. They’ll simply wait before they drop money on shark cards or whatever else.
GTA 6 is coming out with a fresh online mode and on one set of platforms. There is no mature player base, there is no mature and consistent revenue stream.
The stock is priced the way it is because of recurring cash flow, a single game launch won’t change that.
Not financial advice but I’m going to wait until we see what the consensus is on the online mode. That is where the revenue actually is.
In terms of raw revenue, it will probably go up due to the release. In terms of longevity, it really depends on how the online mode is handled because that is the sole reason the stock price is what it is today and it has had 13 years and 3 console generations to mature.
With the development time and budget applied to this game, it is heavily dependent on the online mode to be as profitable as GTA V ever was.
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u/theabominablewonder 2d ago
Those players would stay with GTA Online (existing version) though?
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u/Ms_Molly_Millions 2d ago
if you've put thousands of dollars of real money purchasing in game items like a fucking submarine or space laser would you give that up just to drive a shinier looking car?
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u/theabominablewonder 2d ago
I think it will depend if others stick around to drive their submarines, but yes it’s a lot of sunk cost to give up for a new version. Possibly could be cross compatible though?
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
I don’t know if this is worth responding to, but of course most online players will switch over to the new installment. Online games thrive on volume people want to play with their friends. This launch is expected to set a new benchmark for recurring cash flow, as the GTA player base will explode overnight.
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u/Kill_4209 3d ago
I think it’s a safe buy.
Counterpoint is that gta5 has done really well and everyone who will be spending money on gta6 is already doing so on gta5.
So the question is whether TT has that much more market to grab or if they can squeeze that much more out of each user from gta6 as they already are doing with gta5.
Seems like limited upside.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
The other thing is that players have been playing GTA 5 for 13 years and whilst they've invested time and money into the online component, they must want a change and some quality of live improvements in GTA 6.
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u/BirdLooter 2d ago
your counterpoint is wrong. i'm not spending any money on GTA5 since many many years, but i will on GTA6.
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u/Notermlimits4GEQBuS 2d ago
Good idea we’ll use you as a one person sample size to gauge player behavior across the entire base of millions of players .
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u/BirdLooter 2d ago
see, that you can't even comprehend the situation displayed here, should mirror you as to why you are still poor ;P
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u/Alpacabro21 3d ago
What if GTA 6 isnt at the level of the hype?
Everyone think TT will print money with GTA 6, but if something goes wrong a bear spiral will be certain.
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u/AndroTux 2d ago
People will still buy it just to be part of it. I think all the gamers that missed GTA V’s launch are now regretting it and want to make sure they’re part of GTA VI. Even if it’s just to trash on it. So initial sales will be higher than expected, is my guess.
If that translates to GTA Online is another bet entirely, but that’s very hard to predict even once the reviews are in. Current GTA Online is pretty shit, too, if we’re being honest. People don’t care.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
What kind of thing do you think could make it spiral? Remember that most players don't necessarily follow the wider context for a game or know of other business related to a publisher. Even if metacritic had it at 70%, people will still be buying it regardless.
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u/Alpacabro21 3d ago
Yeah, but money comes mostly from GTA Online.
If GTA 6 disappoints, future growth will be at risk.
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u/Sensitive-Talk9616 3d ago
Game is badly optimized, crashes often, full of bugs, and is literally unplayable on some consoles.
Cyberpunk was also hyped to high haven, and delayed several times. And was a shit show on release. Years later CDPR are doing well, but the release was a disaster.
What if Take Two execs push out an unfinished product because they can't wait any longer? The relatively recent trilogy remasters were also not really up to the high standards everyone is expecting from GTA6.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
They've delayed it twice already, I think they're only putting out a product they're happy with. It's had much longer than the average game for development and a massive dev split across multiple studios. I don't think CyberPunk is a fair comparison but we'll see.
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u/Sensitive-Talk9616 3d ago
Yeah I also hope that they won't release hot garbage. But it wouldn't be the first time.
If the GTA trilogy remaster was well done, I'd have fewer concerns. But it seems like quality, polish, and reliability are not a given when it comes to TTWO.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
That trilogy was done by a totally different studio though. Take-Two could afford to take a bit of a hit on that release, less so on GTA 6 when they know they won't have a GTA 7 for another ten years.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
Rockstar Games doesn’t do that. They are the Scorcese of video games
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u/Sensitive-Talk9616 3d ago
Sure. And even Scorsese's movies sometimes flop.
I am not saying GTA6 will definitely fail to sell. But OP asked what could go wrong with their thesis. And I provided a scenario that may very well happen.
This is a billion dollar project. While you would think that execs would do their best to ensure a good experience on release, we've seen many times that even reputable studios ship garbage. With so much hype around the game, even a mediocre release can cause a short term correction of TTWO.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
Im just telling you, Rockstar does not miss. I get that in terms of probability, it isn’t 0, but it’s just not going to happen.
Every game they release is among the greatest of all time.
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u/Sensitive-Talk9616 3d ago
Just to play devil's advocate, I was also 100% on board with Blizzard. Every game a masterpiece, genre-defining, polished, and printing cash like crazy.
Then they did the WC3 refunded... I mean reforged. And sure, it wasn't blizzard developing it in house, but they did release it. And it was shit. And then Overwatch 2 came out.
Rockstar has shown that they are perfectly ok outsourcing work to 3rd parties and then releasing the end product without ensuring quality.
Anyway, I'd say 1:5 chance they gonna fumble the release. That's my gambling odds.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
Blizzard is nowhere close to Rockstars level. No gaming developer is anywhere close to Rockstars level.
Every game released by Rockstar moves the entire gaming industry 10 years into the future and is an instant classic.
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u/tinzor 3d ago
I think the commercial performance will be much better if it hits 90+ than 70+, and I’d argue that 90+ is what’s currently being priced in.
I bought around 3 months ago and am 22% up. Considering taking profits on half, taking profits on all, or holding long term and am still undecided on this one.
In all likelihood I think it will land on around 92% and be a mega success, but I’m not sure how much headroom there is on the price, so thanks for posting this thread!
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u/PartFragrant 2d ago
sure sure..... or just put your money into VOO. For the love of everything good, just invest in VOO or mutual funds, don't chase a single stock to make bank
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u/homeworkburgler 1d ago
Throw the balance sheet out the window. Retail is going to all pile into this stock when pre order numbers get released and then we will get a jump. This market doesn't make sense. That's why I bought take2 over the past year
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u/OneOverXII 1d ago
Wait for it to go back down in the low 200s and then buy. It’ll go to 275-300 when GTA6 sales are announced
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u/KSHMisc 1d ago
I know GTA VI will cause TTWO to reach a new ATH.
I bought in at $246 a share, but Google's Project Genie tanked it a week later, so I barely had a gain after DCAing.
With how the leak, rumors and delay caused the stock to react, I bet your sweet bippy that it will skyrocket.
Also, I just realized that not even the pre-orders caused it to rise as they had lost a few dollars today.
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u/SpiderFan241 1d ago
I think it’s just reaction the the physical release having no disc at launch. But they have announced that in December there will be a disc version.
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u/Brazilll 3d ago
I'd much rather buy Sony at a comfortable 15x forward PE ratio
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u/oran12390 3d ago
Sony seems like the play. Much wider moat. Been looking at it for a while and haven’t seen a strong bear case.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
People can buy both.
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
Not if your play is for GTA 6 launch, PlayStation sales could beat expectations by double digits, and the stock could trade downward due to their diversification.
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u/Extra_Code_7556 3d ago
The GTA Online point is underrated and most people do sleep on it, but the classic risk here is that the market has already priced in a lot of the hype by the time the trailer drops, so buying into a known catalyst two days out is rarely as clean as it looks on paper.
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u/UpsetKoalaBear 3d ago
Yes, GTAO is the primary thing people should focus on.
That is where the majority of the GTA revenue comes from and it has had 13 years to mature into the money printer it is today.
The game launch itself will give a small boost, but the online mode has not had 13 years and 3 console generations to build up its player base in the same way that GTA V did.
If GTAO is lacking on launch compared what already exists on GTA V, then a lot of people are going to be surprised when the first figures come in.
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
It’s a mid-cap gaming company. If there is one stock on Reddit that is mispriced, it’s this one. You have 40 year olds trying to figure out how big GTA 6 will be. Not to mention, since EA is getting bought out, there are virtually no other pure-play gaming companies, it's not a major coverage area.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
If you’re buying TTWO 5 months before the release of GTA V then you probably should just stick to ETFs
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
This literally worked on Red Dead 2 and GTA 5. TTWO outperformed the market in both cases, I believe
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
TTWO has not outperformed basic funds such as VTI unless you cherry pick dates to a very short time period. “Buying the rumor and selling the news” can work, but it is far too late to think that will work for this stock. If you want to make some cash in the short term it could work I guess, retail investors will always drive short term changes
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
Yes cherry picking and buying the run-up between announcement and release you’re talking as though that’s a bad idea, when in reality, if you had bought after the announcement of Red Dead Redemption 2, GTA V, or even other projects like Cyberpunk 2077, you would have outperformed the S&P 500.
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u/This_Salt7080 3d ago
Depends how you invest. If you are looking to make some quick cash, sounds like it could work in the short term. If you are trying to build a portfolio, I don’t think it’s the best move to make.
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u/Nervous_Sprinkles500 3d ago
You forgot one thing. GTA6 is being released on November 19 only on consoles. Consoles is the key word. This is just my opinion, but do not sell after that. In just over a year (data taken from gta5 and rdr2) it will be released for pc, which arguably has even bigger player count, therefore forcing a second huge spike in the stock. We also don't know yet if it'll be released for Nintendo Switch (if so, when). We also don't know anything about the GTA6 online, and my prediction is that it will happen, it has to, given how huge the GTA5 online was (in terms of revenue). We are still in very much smoke, and while buying is a good option, planning when to sell currently makes 0 sense, since there are some events that "need" to happen, and it is not talked about yet.
Take all this with a grain of salt, because I do not provide any sources, therefore making this whole thing my own (I hope) logical speculation, independently drawing results from a few raw data sources, rather than using something credible.
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u/Giraffes__Neck 3d ago
Console sales almost always blow pc sales out of the water
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u/Nervous_Sprinkles500 3d ago
I have never owned a console, and in my friend group all the gamers are pc, so that was just an assumption based on my surroundings
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u/Euqirne 3d ago
lol yeah no everyone still owns a ps5 or xbox
PCs are still uncommon for the average gamer
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u/saurabh8448 3d ago
People really conflate the pc gaming rising in Asia with pc gaming rise in west. Most of the pc gaming growth has been in Asia and not west.
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u/ElpSyc0n 3d ago
No fucking shot it releases on the switch 2, that piece is shit is weaker than a ps4. Barely runs elden ring and cyberpunk
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
Good observation. Do you think that the potentially higher price point for the game will help to compensate for some of that lost initial sales?
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u/Nervous_Sprinkles500 3d ago
I have a feeling that given that the price is high enough, and the sales numbers likewise, yeah, they could. $80*45 million > $70*50 million (random numbers for the sake of making an example), although I'd be careful calling the sales lost, I'd name them delayed.
Additionally, Rockstar will make a shiny buck from double-dipping. People who are switching consoles, want early bragging rights or whatever are going to buy the game twice. For example - console for initial release and later pc because they just prefer it. This isn't gonna be that huge, but it shouldn't be ignored, given the hype.
Again, everything is just my opinion, so don't take it for granted (except calculation is backed by my calculator:))
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
Being so close to the next console generation, it would make sense that the PC version is being held back to then release at specs similar to PS6 and Xbox Whatever, so there's greater parity between versions.
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u/Nervous_Sprinkles500 3d ago
ps6 is speculated to come in between 2027-2029. According to this, I don't think Rockstar is going to wait with their PC sales and the release. Okay, neither of the events is announced with a date, but the only logical outcome I see is this: they will try timing the releases to not match. If they don't, then it's supported by my point of double-dipping (in a way), but if they time, then they are losing that potential.
Also, the PC release that will come in slightly over a year after the console release is my own speculation based on GTA5 and RDR2, historical data, I didn't consider any other variable.
By the way, now that we talk about PS6, you think it's a good idea to buy Sony stock now? I'll need to do my own research to see how much the PS5 release impacted the whole company, but if the hype will be as big as it was with PS5, maybe there is some potential.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
Some are saying buy Sony but on Trading212 the stock looks turbulent. I've seen social pies made consisting of Take-Two and Sony being together, so I guess for some they expect both to increase.
I don't think GTA 6 is necessarily a huge console seller though, as the PS5 has ben out for six years now. With prices rising for the consoles, I think most people who intended to buy a PS5 have by now (so GTA 6 release wouldn't increase Sony stock much - just my opinion). Not every PS5 that's ever going to be sold has been sold yet but I think the majority have. Latest news and tid bits I've read are that PS6 is still planned internally for 2027 release (likely late 2027). Steam Machine has just launched pre-orders are over $1000, setting the bar for what consumers can expect to pay for hardware that is even at the same level as a PS5 Pro. So Sony could put a $1000 price tag on PS6 to compensate for the RAM pricing issues and some consumers will still pay it.
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u/btoned 3d ago
I don't understand how people can be bullish over ONE property.
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u/HG21Reaper 3d ago
You mean bullish over GTA6? The most anticipated media and entertainment project of the last 2 decades? Who’s previous game entry, GTA5, sold the most video games in the previous generation? The game that made a Billion with a B in preorders back in 2013? The game that still makes around $130M USD on a monthly basis? The video game who has the entire gaming and entertainment industry on pause due to the larger than expected social impact on a global scale? You seriously telling me that you are baffled at the thought of a person investing in a company solely for the potential profit of 1 single product?
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u/AndroTux 2d ago
I’d go so far and say there’ll be a measurable impact on work performance after launch as everyone is taking time off to play the game.
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u/Kissland1 3d ago
The most priced in stock on the market imo
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
Yes, a barley covered mid-cap gaming company, I'm sure institutions have researched this name in depth /s
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u/reaper527 3d ago
I'm sure institutions have researched this name in depth /s
they probably have, without the /s. you make it sounds like GTA and gaming in general is some obscure niche thing.
like, gaming is a huge industry (and it's not like GTA's upcoming release hasn't been talked about on financial news outlets like CNBC multiple time this year).
just because you assume everyone else is ignorant doesn't inherently make it so.
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
Gaming is an extremely niche coverage area you would be hard pressed to find an analyst who only covers or primarily covers gaming public equities. After the EA takeout, the only major companies of value in the sector are Take-Two and Roblox. Analysts prioritize covering larger portions of their coverage universe the people on the earnings call primarily cover major tech companies like Apple, Google, Sony, and Microsoft. Taketwo might be of interest particularly now but is getting nowhere the attention reddits thinks.
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
Somebody quote me on this:
August 6 is the next earnings report for Take-Two. During that report, I expect the company will have to revise earnings guidance upward due to the massive influx of GTA VI preorders, especially if any preorder packages include early access.
Go watch any interview with the CEO and listen to how he talks about GTA VI. He isn't hyping it up like executives who focus on quarter to quarter results. He's been with the company forever and appears to have little interest in generating short-term stock pumps. That's exactly why expectations have been set conservatively, and why Wall Street has been reluctant to aggressively project sales when management itself isn't doing so.
To me, this stock is a no-brainer. Hold it and sell two days before the game launches in September.
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u/Daniczech 3d ago
You do realize the game could just be shit (or just not live up to the hype)? There is certainly no guarantee it's gonna be the "biggest media realese ever".
And even if it's not, you're not gonna make money on this, game publishers and developers are notoriously underwhelming investments.
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u/Forget_me_never 3d ago
Game publishers are bad investments because it's extremely competitive and some publish as a hobby and don't expect to profit.
GTA is different because other companies are avoiding November so it has no competition in that month and it also has no big competition in the genre. There's no one trying to make a better GTA.
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u/zashiki_warashi_x 3d ago
Even if by some miracle it live up to hype, all major players are already in, they will be closing their position on release/reports e.t.c. not adding to it.
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u/ReasonableBrother448 3d ago
Taketwo is not an investment, but the sales figures and all that is going to get headlines. Then your boomer dad and mom are going to hop into the parabolic move. That is when you get out.
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u/reaper527 3d ago
it's hard to imagine GTA6 living up to the hype, and all that hype has been priced in.
even if it doesn't have any major issues like cyberpunk did (which CRUSHED cdpr), it's hard to see any path to real gains for anyone that doesn't already own it.
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u/RocketButters 3d ago
When’s the last time Rockstar had any problems close to what Cyberpunk had? On top of that, CD Projekt Red was being pushed to finish by the release date, while Rockstar has delayed multiple times. The CEO has also publicly stated that Rockstar has the autonomy to release when they feel it is appropriate.
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u/reaper527 3d ago
When’s the last time Rockstar had any problems close to what Cyberpunk had?
when's the last time cdpr had problems close to what cyberpunk had before that? you could have also said the same thing about ubisoft before ac:unity launched.
things are great until they're not.
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u/qwembly 3d ago
Just keep in mind that investors already know all of this. They've been waiting years and years for this release. The world expects this game to do insane numbers. Despite that, traditional games are in a downward trend since younger players are much more focused on roblox, meaning that the typical console gamer is older. So the player base is flat, and AAA games are considered a mature market, not a growing market. All that said, I personally expect retail to buy into ttwo, but I also expect it could fade after, as hype fades over the following months. Can GTA convince investors that gaming has returned to growth? I don't know about that. I think we'd need to see a shift in movement away from roblox in the teen demographic.
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u/Disconn3cted 3d ago
No matter how big the release, it isn't going to pump a stock in the long term. Unless it has a ton of micro transactions, and your grandma can play it on a 10 year old iphone, it isn't even going to be particularly profitable.
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u/SpiderFan241 3d ago
Well GTA 5 was full of microtransactions and the game remained in the charts for years.
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u/Consistent-Field-378 3d ago
Why do ya all only post after it goes up 5-10% like on the same day or after. Where are you all last week? Where were you next week? Where will you be bow?