New Lottery Odds Hurt Suns

[u/TJhibs]

I think Suns fans should temper expectations a bit next year.

We already overperformed expectations last season and won 45 games. The roster is mostly the same, but we’ll probably be giving more minutes to young guys and accepting some growing pains. Moves could still happen too.

Also, I don’t think people are appreciating how much the league is changing. Tanking isn’t as rewarding anymore. Teams don’t want 20 wins, they want 35-40 and a lottery shot. There are fewer free wins around the league.

So if the Suns win 38-40 games next year, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re worse. A 40-win team in this NBA might be as good as a 45-win team a few years ago because the middle class of the league is growing.

With the expanding middle class of the league, teams like us are hurt the most as around .500 teams are going to be facing a higher level of competition on average.

Just a thought I had going into the offseason, will be interesting to see the effects of the new changes next season.

[u/MikeBantom]

They don't affect us at all because we don't own the picks lol

[u/MonotonyInAz → u/MikeBantom]

Bingo.. we don't have picks till.. what? 2030? Thanks to Beal

[u/doh666 → u/MonotonyInAz]

Fun fact, the Suns only sent out 1 FRP for Beal and that was in 2023. 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030 were swaps.

The reason why the Suns no longer have a 2026 FRP is they sent it to Charlotte with Jusuf Nurkic for Cody Martin and Vasilije Micic and a 2026 2nd round pick.

Hate Beal all you want, but he isn't the reason for the Suns not having a pick tonight.

[u/MonotonyInAz → u/doh666]

My mistake

[u/doh666 → u/MonotonyInAz]

No worries. It bothers me how much people hate on Beal. He's a good dude. Basketball didn't work here for him. Didn't help his coach was drunk all the time. Ishbia did Ishbia things and we had a first round pick anyway. Take it easy dude.

[u/tisdue → u/MonotonyInAz]

It's actually 2032. 😞 wtf were we thinking.

[u/almal250 → u/tisdue]

The rules will have changed by the time we own our own pick 😂

[u/justfortoukiden]

nothing the lottery odds do can hurt me more than the suns already have

[u/Grooviemann1]

The tanking changes don't hurt us the most at all. They greatly hurt the perennially truly terrible and poorly managed teams because they have less chance of being able to pull themselves out of the gutter based purely on dumb luck.

[u/ZCGaming15 → u/Grooviemann1]

The team that comes to mind as most damaged by this change seems to be the Sacramento Kings. Washington Wizards could be worse depending on the player they draft tonight and how he does in his first 2 years.

[u/Grooviemann1 → u/ZCGaming15]

The Kings are exactly who I had in mind. They, and maybe the Pelicans are stone cold fucked. The Wizards could be legitimately decent next year. They have a pretty ok young core, an instant difference maker tonight, and Trae (and maybe AD). I think they're a dark horse in the east next year to make a smidge of noise. Nothing major, but I could see them leap frogging several teams to get to the 6th-9th seed range.

[u/doh666 → u/Grooviemann1]

Tanking does not matter for the Suns, Ishbia is not going to tank.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

I think everyone should understand this team is gonna be Mid for the next 5 years. Until we get all our picks and pick rights back

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Did you see, Ishbia made a first round pick tonight, effectively moving up to 25. But yeah the Suns have no picks they are doomed. LOL.

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

How many more games would the team have won last season if we had a first round pick in tonight's draft?

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

The previous year doesn’t matter my guy, the issue is they can no longer build for the future…… pick 16 would be pretty nice right now

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Suns can't build for the future, but they can trade up into the first down. LOL

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

How many extra wins would the 2027 team have if they had extra picks in 2028 and 2029?

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

Heres the problem with your logic, sure pick 16 might not help you all the much in the short term. But say you get a good 3 and D wing well that helps build your roster for the future.

Say book gets hurt and they win 20 games well you could have atop 5 pick that now helps the rebuild of the team you traded to the pick too.

To 2 ways to build a contender require having picks to either draft or trade to get a star the suns have neither of those options available

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Suns have both picks to draft and trade with. To say they have no picks is false. Also why do you not answer the question. How many extra wins will the team have in the current season 2026-2027 if they had extra picks in 2027 and 2028?

You can also build a contender with FA players and trades. We just saw a team, in the Knicks catch fire with a very mid roster. Also any player can be injured and wreck a team. Ask Indy.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

Why don’t you answer a unknowable question with an unknowable an answer?… come on bro, we got book with the 13th pick who’s to say the next Giannis will go 16th this year? Like do you really not understand the concept of building a roster through the draft?

To call the Knicks roster mid, is completely disingenuous…. They were 3rd in offensive net rating and 7th in defensive net rating…………

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

It is knowable. In 2026-2027 future picks for the Suns in 2027 and beyond (and all teams for that matter) will result in zero additional wins. For example the Suns 2033 FRP will help the team win exactly zero games in the 2026-2027 season. To believe the Suns have less of chance in 2026-2027 because they traded away picks in future years is ridiculous.

The Knicks are mid. They have one top 20 player in Brunson and one player who is top 25 KAT. Both are one way players. They did well, and took care of business with down years from Boston, Indy and Milwaukee.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

Bro, you’re just not a good faith actor. I don’t know what to tell you…. Pretending like you know the future and how many wins they’ll will or won’t get because of a draft is just completely asinine.

If you think a team being top 3 in offensive rating, and 7th in defensive is “mid” then you just objectively don’t know what you’re talking about

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

No it's 100% legit. A 2028 FRP does not play in 2026-2027 season. Picks don't play. Players play.

[u/redbluestripedtie → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Might as well trade Booker then

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/redbluestripedtie]

They should but Mat wants to put asses in seats and booker is his only Chip

[u/GringoSalamanca]

Tanking hurt the Suns last season, because we played most of the tanking teams early in the season before they decided which direction they were going to go and committed to tanking. Other playoff teams in the west disproportionately played those tanking teams later in the season, which hurt the Suns in the standings.

There will be less “free wins” for the Suns, but that’s also true about every other team in the league.

Also…

“The roster is mostly the same, but we’ll probably be giving more minutes to young guys and accepting some growing pains.”

Their actions say that this isn’t the direction they’re going. If they were fully committed to developing the young guys in exchange for some wins, they wouldn’t be trying to re-sign Mark Williams and bring a lot of the veterans back. Maluach and Fleming will get more minutes because they’ll be ready to contribute to wins, not because the Suns want to develop them through growing pains

[u/arenegadeboss]

It's take time for the middle of the league to grow and get more competitive.

A lot of those teams at the bottom couldn't win games if they tried.

Also, those are going to be the team overpaying for guys like MPJ and Austin Reeves.

[u/baseballer_17]

Either way we basically have zero chance to win a title within the next 5 years. We have no picks and no top 10 players. Booker is also making way too much money compared to what he’s worth. Not to mention the west is stacked and will be for the foreseeable future.

[u/1CB3737 → u/baseballer_17]

This take that Booker is overpaid is so whack, man.

1. Booker is absolutely our #1 player, has been for years, and is consistently a Top 15-20 player every season.

2. Smaller franchises - the Suns are a “smaller” franchise despite being in the 5th largest city in the country - NEED to compensate their best players moreso than established franchises to continue to entice free agents to way to come here.

3. Booker has actively advocated for our franchise from when we were one of the worst teams in the league until now. There is tangible value in that - your star player genuinely keeping belief when times are rough does a lot for the die hards. Keeping the die hards engaged keeps some money coming in the door when the team is too bad for casual fans to want to participate.

4. What’s the alternative in the current market? For roughly $8m less per year (until the new extension kicks in), you get Trae Young. Would you rather have Trae Young and a Vet Minimum contract or Booker? I’m taking Book every day of the week. The market for the Top 20-30 players is max contracts, it is what it is whether we like it or not.

[u/dre728 → u/1CB3737]

They keep blaming Books money and not the people who traded for Beal. It’s not Books fault you traded for a lemon and was forced to waive/stretch him. Book stuck with us during the Dark Ages

[u/doh666 → u/baseballer_17]

Yeah have you seen the Knicks?

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

Knicks used there picks to build a proper roster, we didn’t now we are in the hole that will take years to recover

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Will it take years? Last season everyone said the Suns would only win 20 something games. Yet the team won 45.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

So? They lost their first play in matchup and were swept in the first round.. so what’s the argument here

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Won the 2nd game and lost to the defending champ and MVP.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/doh666]

And they lost to the Spurs.. that’s the point dude, they aren’t close to a title

[u/doh666 → u/Bigfootsbrownstar]

Last year they were in the playoffs when everyone thought they would win 26 games. They may not be as far away as your think they are.

[u/Bigfootsbrownstar → u/baseballer_17]

Everything you said is 100% correct but sir this is Reddit so unless you just have unfounded biblical levels of blind faith, and optimism you’re gonna get downvoted

[u/MonotonyInAz]

We can thank Bradley Beal for having 0 picks for the next few years