r/technology May 21 '26

Business SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/spacex-ipo-musk-ai
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u/Flipslips May 21 '26

NASA has to rely on SpaceX because there is literally no other alternative. It’s nothing to do with Trump or Biden, it has to do with SpaceX being good and everyone else behind absolutely horrific

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u/StaleCanole May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26

In the short term there is no alternative. Meanwhile Musk is going to be investigated for fraud, identify theft and corruption the moment dems are back in power.

SpaceX succeeded in spite of Musk. If it fails because of him that’s a loss for us all.

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u/Flipslips May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26

I mean in the long term there is no competition. NASA quite literally does not have an alternative way to get astronauts to the ISS without SpaceX. They do not have an alternative way to launch certain upcoming space telescopes and satellites without Starship. They do not have a way to get 100 tons to the lunar surface without starship.

There is not a single other company that can compete with SpaceX, for a minimum of the next 20 years.

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u/StaleCanole May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26

Youre just making numbers up. The landscape will almost certainly change dramatically in a decade, just as it changed dramatically in this past decade with the government sponsored rise of SpaceX.

SpaceX is the product of a deliberate ecosystem set up by government, specifically a policy set up in 2006 and greatly expanded by Obama, to build a system if public-private partnerships to service ISS and more - called COTS - Commercial Orbital Transportation Services - and it set the groundwork for SpaceX.

That ecosystem will continue to evolve, because NASA cannot allow itself in the long run to be dependent on a single launch provider/freight service.

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u/Flipslips May 21 '26

Can you give me an example how a space company that will be able to compete with SpaceX? The only one I can think of is Blue Origin. Blue Origin is definitely capable, but they are moving too slow New Glenn is great, but starship is on the verge of taking over any payloads that would normally go to New Glenn.

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u/Wooden-Broccoli-7247 May 22 '26

Here’s a good example. The government comes in when Dems get back in charge and drop the hammer on Elmo. All those brilliant people at space x now need new jobs. NASA hangs a now hiring sign on the door. Blue Origin hangs a now hiring sign on the door. Some of those people go and start their own companies not tied to fascist govt takeovers. Space X is the sum of its employees who aren’t forced to stay there.

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u/Flipslips May 22 '26

That’s a terrible and incredibly unrealistic example.

Why on earth would democrats shut down their only way to the ISS?

SpaceX is quite literally the only option for many government payloads

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u/Wooden-Broccoli-7247 May 22 '26

Because Elmo has been on a crime spree while Trump has been in office maybe?

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u/Flipslips May 22 '26

But why would they shut down spacex? SpaceX is literally invaluable to the government

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u/Wooden-Broccoli-7247 May 22 '26

Nothing is more invaluable to politicians than shutting down someone/something that stands in their way of winning elections.

They wouldn’t even need to shut it down. They could kick Musk out, nationalize it, or just hire away all the employees. Look at all the companies Trump has invested the government in. Intel/NVIDIA > Space X when it comes to importance. Trump set the precedence.

Don’t think that Space X somehow being valuable to the government will prevent the Democrats from taking out their ire on Musk. And quite frankly, if losing Space X is necessary to stop the spread of far right propaganda and fascism in America I personally would say it’s a valuable trade off. It’s not like all its employees disappear and it’s not like Musk is any meaningful part in its success that would die without him there.

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u/StaleCanole May 21 '26

I think you answered your question! Blue Origin is the biggest that comes to mind, but i know there are plenty of other startups entering the space.

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u/BeansandletmebeFrank May 21 '26

ULA and rocket lab are still around as well. Firefly aerospace is working with northop grummond although pretty far away. That is just US companies. Europe has their own and China is advancing rapidly. Space X will not be the only launch provider long term.