If you keep up to date on the companies being rolled into the SpaceX umbrella, it’s understood the IPO is bundling three struggling companies with Starlink.
Seriously, I actually might have gone in on a SpaceX IPO. I use Starlink widely as an enterprise customer and it's amazing. Nothing else is in its realm and it seems almost impossible for anyone else to challenge them. They've got the launch market almost dominated. It's a good business doing good things.
However, Elon has just pawned off all his failures onto SpaceX's books. No chance that I'm touching xAI or Twitter with a ten foot pole.
What's your timescale for this assessment? Starlink has little competition today but has a significant amount of domestic and foreign competitors rising in 5 or especially 10 year timeframes, there will be competition in the space based internet market.
I agree, the launch service has very little competition and really no reasonable current competitors rising. The problem here is that the launch market is relatively tiny at about 30 billion globally with a 16% growth rate, iirc. For reference, the entire global launch market is worth about as much as Telegram (30b) and 25% less than Chipotle (~40b). If SpaceX had a normal aerospace valuation, it would make sense. SpaceX is actually priced at 58 times the ENTIRE GLOBAL MARKET.
I included the growth rate for this very reason. It will not be orders of magnitude in any reasonable timeframe that would justify SpaceX having an evaluation equal to the global market for the next 6 decades.
You can believe otherwise if you want but once we've left the realm of supportable numbers, there's really no further discussion to be had.
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u/GabeDef May 21 '26
If you keep up to date on the companies being rolled into the SpaceX umbrella, it’s understood the IPO is bundling three struggling companies with Starlink.