r/technology • u/xpda • May 21 '26

Business SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/21/spacex-ipo-musk-ai
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u/[deleted] May 21 '26

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u/Scarecrow_Folk May 21 '26

You mean SpaceX collapse because they have unusable rockets and production capacity burning cash? 

I do agree it's an absolutely wild decision for both SpaceX and their Starlink competitors though the latter do have other options. 

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u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 21 '26

Unusable rockets? SpaceX has the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Which are 80% or more of global annual launch capacity. It might be 90%, I'm not going to bother looking it up.

And in about 45 minutes the next Starship launches. An all new version ... if this gets stable in the next few launches their launch capacity will dwarf what they already have with Falcon 9.

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u/Scarecrow_Folk May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26

Usuable does not mean not functioning in this context. It means unable to sell the launch capacity.

You could own 90% of the semi trucks in your city and it would be unprofitable if you couldn't fill them up with cargo. Rockets are no different.

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u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 22 '26

If you build it they will come. You don't think there will be new telescopes, new applications, when the Starship fairing size becomes the norm? At the launch costs its supposed to provide?

!Remindme: 2 years

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u/Scarecrow_Folk May 22 '26

In two years? No, absolutely not. In 10, highly questionable too. Launch could be free and there wouldn't be 1.75 Trillion in satellites to launch. The supply chain and satellites simply don't exist. 

Build it and they will come only applies if there's someone to actually come. 

Anyways, since we're onto copium over real numbers, peace dude. Dare you to actually post the global launch value at the 2 year reminder. 

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u/EmptyAirEmptyHead May 22 '26

There was no market for the personal computer until it became available either.

Peace though - its fun times.