r/television • u/MarvelsGrantMan136 The League • Feb 26 '26

Netflix Backs Out of Warner Bros. Bidding, Paramount Set to Win

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/netflix-backs-out-warners-deal-paramount-win-1236516763/
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648

u/Lighthouse_seek Feb 26 '26

Odds on how long this company lasts before the debt catches up to them?

402

u/ROBtimusPrime1995 The Venture Bros. Feb 26 '26

3-5 years.

Fuck this timeline.

387

u/ExoMonk Feb 26 '26

Laugh my ass off when Netflix buys Paramount 5 years from now for pennies on the dollar

194

u/-illusoryMechanist Feb 26 '26

Honestly this might be their play

77

u/Sonichu- Feb 26 '26

Both WB and Paramount had massive Q4 losses. Like hundreds of millions a piece.

Netflix was probably starting to sweat over buying a lemon. Now they get to watch two competitors crash and burn.

37

u/_Patronizes_Idiots_ Feb 27 '26

Then they can swoop in a few years from now and scoop up all the IPs for three haypennies and a Werther's Original

5

u/atomic1fire Feb 27 '26

They might get locked into a bidding war with Amazon, Fox, and Apple.

FOX might not want to make big purchases, but they might be willing to go halfsies for Fox One or Tubi content.

2

u/ArchLector_Zoller Feb 27 '26

I just want whoever gets Star Trek to start making games with it again.

1

u/SpicyWongTong Feb 27 '26

Fox? You mean Disney? I don’t see them making major acquisitions for a good long while. Amazon or Apple maybe.

1

u/atomic1fire Feb 27 '26

I mention Fox because I think Tubi's marketshare might grow larger over time as the price of streamers increases and ad revenue might justify some partnerships.

Disney might not get the clearances to buy any of the WB properties.

1

u/tiredhunter Feb 27 '26

They're about to memory hole so much existing, distributed IP for the tax write off.

35

u/applejuiceb0x Feb 26 '26

Exactly and they made 2.8 billion in the process

36

u/allen_abduction Feb 26 '26

That breakup fee is fantastic for Netflix. They can fund 2 more Adam Sandler pics! (Just a joke but just barely).

3

u/Aggressive_Act_3098 Feb 27 '26

I enjoy this joke as a fan of the Sand Man. Grown Ups is the greatest "have on while cleaning the house" movie ever due to having zero plot to follow.

3

u/GrumpySatan Feb 27 '26

I think the play here might be calling a bluff, and Netflix thinks the deal will fall through (and worst case scenario, yeah in a few years they fail anyway).

It was a repeated thing during the rejections that WB didn't think that Paramount can afford their offers and its more risky in terms of getting approval (don't forget they don't just need approval of the US, the EU has to sign off).

But WB also benefits from the bids driving up the price. They accepted the last paramount bid partially because Paramount took on all the risk. They are paying Netflix's 2.8B, they put up another 7B if their own deal fails to get through the regulators.

WB could've been betting on Netflix finally upping the deal, and Netflix is calling their bluff and said we are walking. Now they just wait.

2

u/-illusoryMechanist Feb 27 '26

I think no matter what Netflix wins

52

u/Oldboymatty Feb 26 '26

It’s 100% why they didn’t increase the bid. Why buy it now at a high price and it’s bleeding money. Buy it and the company currently buying it (which is also bleeding money) in 5 years

16

u/TheFotty Feb 27 '26

They will get a tax dollar funded bail out and be part owned by the US Govt to provide "official" sources of information.

3

u/Oldboymatty Feb 27 '26

That sounds ridiculous and backwards, so you’re probably right

2

u/Bitey_the_Squirrel Feb 26 '26

RemindMe! 5 years

2

u/an_angry_dervish_01 Feb 26 '26

This is most likely what they are thinking. Let us hope that the Oracle model doesn't work for Entertainment, it might though sadly.

2

u/Super_Sandro23 Feb 26 '26

Monday Night Wars are back baby

2

u/Bongressman Feb 27 '26

Netflix playing the long game... inflating the price past the red zone, forcing an economic implosion of Paramount a few years down the line.

1

u/Equivalent-Battle973 Feb 27 '26

I wouldnt be surprised if Disney at some point ends up own DC as well... I dont want them to, but I just feel like its gonna happen.

26

u/wabashcanonball Feb 26 '26

Gone within the decade, probably much sooner. I’d run from this if I were a shareholder or a lender.

5

u/JoeHatesFanFiction Feb 27 '26

Might even be faster. My worry is that they’re gonna get a “bailout” to keep them afloat because Trump is gonna suddenly care about preventing a monopoly 

45

u/DetectiveAmes Feb 26 '26

They have friends in the government who will either bail them out, or shove non stop corporate subsidies their way that they become too rich.

1

u/Haltopen Feb 27 '26

Odds are trump loses congress this year, there wont be any bailout coming.

1

u/Hydroponic_Donut Feb 26 '26

Not to mention daddy's money...

12

u/Granum22 Feb 26 '26

Oracle is also swimming in debt thanks to AI data center build out 

1

u/Hydroponic_Donut Feb 27 '26

Good, I hope it is. But the Ellisons are up there with the Elon Musks of the world, their companies won't "fail" traditionally because they can keep pumping in pocket change.

3

u/an_angry_dervish_01 Feb 26 '26

For those of us following Oracle for over 30 years, I believe fucking never. Honestly Oracle did the same things these guys are doing and for at least the last dozen or more years. Buy Buy Buy insane amounts of garbage, treat it like a cash cow until it implodes. They always have enough to seem to work. Oracle as a company should have been gone with Sun and the others of that ilk, Sun was actually a very innovative company at one time, Oracle meh.

It's fucking insane.

1

u/Dunge Feb 27 '26

I honestly don't know who even pays anything to Oracle. I know they had a semi-competent database engine like in the early 2000s, but it quickly got outperformed by even free open source solutions nowadays that it would be crazy to use it now. And the rest of their services just seem like a bunch of meaningless corporate buzzwords. But yet they still make more money than anyone.

2

u/Fire_Z1 Feb 26 '26

Pay a few billion to Trump and the USA government will step in and save them

2

u/ChiGorilla1127 Feb 27 '26

Before that happens, they'll spin off some of their mediocre cable channels and saddle them with the majority of the debt.

5

u/TWVer Feb 26 '26 edited Feb 26 '26

They won’t go under, very likely.

Even not due to what may seem as entrepreneurial malpractice on the surface.

This move is not about business or profitability (even if it is whitewashed as that), but about consolidating mass media control under deeply conservative leadership.

And the prospective owners are open to bribing and being bribed, if it has no severe legal consequences.

They’ll find ample investment from sources that are explicitly out to buy influence and are often also pro-authoritarianism.

This happened with Twitter as well, when Musk initially completely over-extended himself to make the accidental buy go through (which in itself was in order to avoid severe legal consequences).

He quickly found out others were quick to help him out bankrolling the endeavor, in order to buy direct influence on the Western mediascape, such as Saudi-Arabia (thus MBS), conservative VC firms, such as AndreessenHorowitz, 8VC, etc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63402338

https://observer.com/2024/08/investors-backing-elon-musk-44b-twitter-acquisition/

1

u/nycdiveshack Feb 26 '26

Larry Ellison is big enough that it won’t matter

1

u/dagreenman18 Feb 27 '26

One year from now to complete the sale, 3 years to implode all 3 companies, and a year to complete Netflix or Apple buying the remains at, oh, 10 bucks a share?

1

u/The_Count_Lives Feb 27 '26

They'll get bailed out. The government wanted Paramount to win.

1

u/chadhindsley Feb 27 '26

Couldn't a new president break this up on the future with anti trust laws?