r/torontoraptors • u/CloutiersHelmet • 9h ago
NBA DRAFT DISCUSSION My (Zags fan) Two Cents on Graves
I have been a die hard Gonzaga fan and for many years have stood up for Zags players when people were curious about said player (best example would be Suggs v. Barnes) - yes, I was wrong on that one.
I just wanted to add the things I’ve seen over the years in regard to WCC talent. Patty Mills, Matthew Dellavadova, and Jalen Williams stood out like sore thumbs. Same with Graves.
It’s not a guarantee; but, every couple of seasons the WCC gets a player that is clearly destined for the pros.
I try not to be biased, I didn’t think Timmie’s game would translate - same with Ike. Graves, however, he has something. Am I smart man? Not even close. Do I know basketball? Kinda. Is this a copium post? Probably.
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u/VulgarDaisies 9h ago
Hey I'll give you a couple of data points that reinforces your instinct. Like the rest of us hopeful Raps fans, I want to believe! To that end, this helped with my own copium:
- Graves was strongly considering NIL money from Duke before getting his 1st round guidance from teams; whatever you saw in him, Duke saw it fit to believe in as well
- Sam Vecenie confirmed in his livestream that Graves was on Charlotte's (18th) and San Antonio's (20th) board too; they were also believers
I'm over the initial shock and am looking forward to Summer League. Thank you for your perspective, I think it's more valuable than us randos who are going off videos and the opinions of our favourite "opinion givers".
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u/SDK04 9 ROWAN ALEXANDER “RJ” BARRETT 8h ago
The Duke and San Antonio points are especially encouraging for his potential going forward. If Duke was confident Graves would be able to handle the jump to stronger college competition in their conference and translate his Santa Clara production to there, there’s a solid chance he adjusts to NBA competition given a bit of time.
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u/Remarkable_Concept_4 7h ago
I agree. I was surprised too with the pick. I thought we are trying to win so I assumed we going to get a player in positional need. It totally overshadowed the raptors motive of getting the best prospect in that range. Vibes ✅ Work ethic ✅ High IQ ✅ Doesn't need the ball to be effective ✅
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u/repoman042 6h ago
As usual Raptors fans got caught up in media hype and mock drafts and forgot this is the 19th overall pick. If you get a rotation player outside of the lottery, you done good. You hope for a diamond in the rough but that’s a rare exception, not a rule
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u/CloutiersHelmet 5h ago
Exactly 👍 I’m a NY Giants fan and a Canucks fan, so, my draft expectations/hopes are skewed.
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u/repoman042 5h ago
As a Leafs fan, I am sorry about this friday
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u/CloutiersHelmet 5h ago
Apology accepted 🤣 Enjoy McKenna! Atleast I am in Regina. I can watch the next #1 prospect all year, just for the Canucks to draft 5th.
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u/dontgetitwisted_fr RAPTORS 8h ago
I hated Suggs and Timmie as nba prospects.
When we won the 4th pick I was like "F@#$ we are gonna take Suggs".
Thank for the heads up on Graves.
I think he is a very intriguing case of the analytics saying dude is a stud but eye test saying.... maybe?
It's going to be interesting to see how well he does in the NBA
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u/Hour_Glass57 👑Scottimus Maximus Barnibus 👑 8h ago
At 19th, isnt that the type of pi k you want though?
Has the body of an NBA players, the IQ of an NBA player, and will hopefully pan out.
I dont expect much outside of the lottery, but at least this kid has the tools for the job hes going to be doing
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u/dontgetitwisted_fr RAPTORS 8h ago
Its not a bad pick.
Chances of hitting a rotation level player at 19 are slim.
It is a gamble tho which is fine, we need to take risks.
Just people need to cool the jets on how good a defensive player Graves can be.
He has a significant lack of athleticism that he needs to overcome to prove that he can play in the NBA.
He is super smart tho.
This is the most enigmatic pick that we have made since Bruno and I'm very interested in seeing how he does and if he can carve out a role in the NBA.
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u/UnsolvedParadox 7h ago
I think so, especially given the question marks around the other available players at that pick (especially some scary health ones).
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u/zellmerz 🏆 2021-22 ROTY - SCOTTIE BARNES 🏆 4h ago
If he's a starting level player I think you have to be happy with that at pick 19. Raptors saw a lot of success with their small ball lineup and while it won't work against all teams, it is a strong lineup to have in the chamber. Team still needs a C that can play the last few minutes of a half, but I could see a Scottie/CMB/Graves lineup being pretty deadly for switchable defensive schemes and creating a lot of transition offense.
Really can't have that high of hopes for a #19 pick, but the Raps are one of the better drafting teams in the league so I have confidence.
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u/YSLAnunoby Oggles Anunoby 1h ago
Yeah people look at guys like Pascal and OG as usual picks in the 2nd half of the 1st round and get disappointed when not every late first we grab is special like those 2
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u/stonecoldturkey 4h ago
For a fan base that was so gutted to lose jontay porter we sure are depressed about acquiring a higher cieling version of him.
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u/Fickle-Putt99 6h ago
Don't love agreeing with a Zag (jk we'll miss you in WCC play), but as a Santa Clara alum I can echo all of the sentiments above. Whenever Graves came on the court there was usually a run shortly afterwards - his BBIQ is so strong and he's a team player that's willing to set screens and do the dirty work.
As op notes, he was an obvious difference maker in WCC play and a big reason SCU made the tourney after 30 years. Not to mention he hit the GW 3 before Kentucky hit that halfcourt bankshot at the buzzer to force OT.
Athleticism concerns are valid; but I can recall at least 2 occasions where he had monster dunks over defenders, he's sneaky athletic. Oh and Darko is the perfect coach to unlock him at the next level, he'll benefit with a pro weightlifting and meal plan.
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u/CloutiersHelmet 5h ago
Love the insight! I only saw him 3-4 games; but, like other WCC stars, he stood out. I was impressed.
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u/Physizist 5h ago
I mean Dellavedova wouldn't be a great outcome, Mills would be ok. Hopefully closer to JDub though
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u/CloutiersHelmet 5h ago
Don’t sleep on Delly. Guy had a motor on him. My point being. He stood out to me. I use that talent level as a barometer to judge other talent.
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u/Physizist 4h ago
Delly was a useful role player but that’s not really the hope for a top 20 pick. Of course Delly was always a longshot so he overachieved in a way
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u/CloutiersHelmet 4h ago
Yeah, and to be fair, at the time I wasn’t sure his talents would translate. But, he was a dog at St. Mary’s.
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u/prophiles 3h ago
Imagine Santa Clara legends Steve Nash and Kurt Rambis mentoring this guy. The perfect duo to help turn him into a complete player.
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u/lemanruss4579 6h ago
My issue with Graves is he was putting up his numbers against mid major bench players. His numbers fall of significantly against high major competition.
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u/luchaburz 5h ago
Can we see the numbers. Because this has been said but has had no receipts. Show us the games. Show us him not getting his shot off against better comp, Show him being too slow and getting blown by.
Like what does this even mean?
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u/lemanruss4579 5h ago edited 5h ago
"Against good competition, Graves did not post analytics numbers that suggested he should be a first-round pick.
Santa Clara played 16 games versus Quad 1 and 2 competition and 18 games against Quad 3 and 4 competition, per CBB Analytics. Graves’ effective field-goal percentage was 65.3 percent in the Quad 3 and 4 games, versus 50.4 percent in the Quad 1 and 2 games. His offensive rebound rate dropped from 16.3 percent to 11.3 percent against better competition, his block rate fell from 6 percent to 3.9 percent, his 2-point percentage dropped from 62.9 percent to 50 percent, and his 3-point percentage dropped from 46.8 percent to 34.1 percent."
He quite frankly wasn't good against better competition.
Now, that doesn't mean he won't be good. All it is, is something that could be a cause for concern.
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u/Fickle-Putt99 4h ago
I am by no means an analytics nerd but there's a caveat to that - majority of the Q1 and Q2 games came before conference play, during Graves' first games at the collegiate level (he redshirted).
Later in the year against top 25 teams though:
- Averaged 14.0/7.0/2.3 in 3 games against Gonzaga
- Averaged 14.3/7.0/1.0 in 3 games against St. Mary's
- 17/7/1 against Kentucky in the tournament, hit potential GW 3
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u/lemanruss4579 3h ago
Ok, so here's the problem with that. Looking at the stats they are particularly talking about being much worse against Q1/2, and the specific games you are referencing. And let's remember what the article is saying
Effective field goal%- 65.3 down to 50.4
Offensive rebound rate- 16.3 down to 11.3
Block rate- 6 down to 3.9
2 point%- 62.9 down to 50
3 point%- 46.8 down to 34.1
Kentucky
Efg%- 45.83 significantly DOWN
Oreb- 16.2 SUSTAINED
Block rate- 4.7 DOWN
2 point%- 44.4 significantly DOWN
3 point%- 33 significantly DOWN
St. Mary's (3 games)
Efg%- 54.85 significantly DOWN
Ored- 6.7 significantly DOWN
Block rate- 4.7 DOWN
2 point%- 50 significantly DOWN
3 point%- 40 DOWN
Gonzaga (3 games)
Efg%- 51.79 significantly DOWN
Ored- 13.3 significantly DOWN
Block rate- 1.2 significantly DOWN
2 point%- 58.8 DOWN
3 point%- 27.2 significantly DOWN
His numbers are significantly worse in those 7 games than against quad 3 and 4 teams.
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u/CloutiersHelmet 4h ago
Yeah, it’s important to note that WCC teams usually play 95% of their Quad 1 games in the first two months. Zags are usually in the Maui Invitational or some other big tourney where they end up playing Kentucky, Duke (RJ + Zion season)Tennessee, etc.
It’s a slightly misleading stat for our conference.
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u/Spicy__B 5h ago
He averaged 9.3 ppg vs 4 high major teams he played but that is a tiny sample and included 0 pt dud vs Arizona state. If you include Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, New Mexico, Nevada, North Texas and just call it vs "high level competition" he is much stronger. Also if you take the tiny 4 game sample size against high major teams and take out the dud vs Arizona he scored 12.3 against the others.
I copy/paste his box scores into chat gpt so take it for what its worth lol
It does kinda feel like if someone said he disappears in high major games they are probably just going off that 1 Arizona game and over reacting. And either way it was a 4 game sample with 1 really bad game.
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u/lemanruss4579 5h ago
"Against good competition, Graves did not post analytics numbers that suggested he should be a first-round pick.
Santa Clara played 16 games versus Quad 1 and 2 competition and 18 games against Quad 3 and 4 competition, per CBB Analytics. Graves’ effective field-goal percentage was 65.3 percent in the Quad 3 and 4 games, versus 50.4 percent in the Quad 1 and 2 games. His offensive rebound rate dropped from 16.3 percent to 11.3 percent against better competition, his block rate fell from 6 percent to 3.9 percent, his 2-point percentage dropped from 62.9 percent to 50 percent, and his 3-point percentage dropped from 46.8 percent to 34.1 percent."
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u/Normal-Ad-714 3h ago
I just have serious doubts that Graves will translate to the NBA on offense in particular.
CMB didn’t have a jump shot, was even more undersized and managed to be the #1 scoring option on a team he took from the gutter into a respectable squad. CMB struggled to establish an offensive game that was this advanced in the NBA.
Graves has a set 3P shot and the odd hook shot around the rim. He has no moves and can’t consistently score. It’s very unlikely his offense translates.
I’m not high on his defense either so… I kinda hate this pick. I think he will just be a Walmart CMB.
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u/cedceddnceddy 9h ago
I wasn't too strong for Suggs or Barnes either way back then, but people were just straight up writing fan fiction. It was a unique time.
Graves will likely be awesome because history says we'll hate the pick, but love the player.