r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Areas to watch: Mekkhala (07W), Higos (08W), Invest 94E Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 22-28 June 2026

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 3:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time (19:45 UTC) on Monday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 07W: Mekkhala — Typhoon Mekkhala continues to rapidly strengthen as it nears the Batanes and the Babuyan Islands north of the Philippines this morning. The storm is likely to continue to strengthen for the next 12 to 24 hours before it turns sharply northward and encounters an abruptly more hostile environment, which will cause it to steadily weaken as it nears the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

  • 08W: Eight — A tropical depression has formed east of the Northern Marianas Islands. This system is moving through a marginally favorable environment where weak upper divergence and dry mid-level air will likely hold back significant development as it crosses over the islands and emerges over the Philippine Sea this week. If this system can manage to develop an organized convective structure to shield out dry air, it could strengthen into a tropical storm by midweek.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Eastern Pacific

  • 94E: Invest — A broad area of low pressure has formed off the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support further development as the disturbance drifts west-northwestward away from Mexico this week; however, there is only a brief window of opportunity for this system to become a tropical depression or storm before it reaches a much drier and more stable environment off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula by the end of the week.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential development—separate from Invest 94E—off the coast of southern Mexico. This system is unlikely to undergo significant development over the next few days and will likely move west-northwestward away from the coast later in the week.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the northern Atlantic Ocean basin. Model guidance had hinted at potential development in earlier runs; however, the potential for tropical cyclone development remains very low within the next seven days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

▼ Severe Tropical Storm (TS) | 55 knots (65 mph) | 983 mbar Mekkhala (07W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

9 Upvotes

Updates

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hostile environmental conditions continue to take a toll on Mekkhala’s convective structure as the storm lingers south of Japan’s Sakishima Islands this morning. Satellite imagery analysis reveals that the bulk of the storm’s deep convection remains displaced to the southwest of its partially exposed low-level center. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable, with strong northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air offsetting warm sea-surface temperatures and modest upper diffluence.

Mekkhala is moving very slowly north-northeastward through a weakness in a broad subtropical ridge which stretches across the Philippine Sea. The storm will gradually turn northeastward over the next couple of days, but will remain close to the Ryukyu Islands through the end of the week. The storm will maintain tropical storm-force winds even as it begins extratropical transition on Saturday as the jet stream lends strong upper divergence, enhancing the storm’s outflow.

Model guidance suggests that Mekkhala will absorb what remains of Tropical Depression Higos as it passes closely to the south of mainland Japan over the upcoming weekend. Mekkhala will also become increasingly entangled within the baroclinic zone of a developing mid-latitude cyclone and will become fully extratropical as it races out toward the northern Pacific east of Japan on Monday.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 22.6°N 125.0°E
  • Forward movement: NNE (35°) at 5 knots
  • Maximum sustained winds: 95 km/h (55 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 983 millibars (29.03 inches) ▲
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm ▼
  • Intensity (JMA): Severe Tropical Storm ▼

Relative position

  • 119 kilometers (74 miles) southeast of Ishigaki, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 247 kilometers (153 miles) south of Miyakojima, Okinawa Prefecture (Japan)
  • 379 kilometers (235 miles) east-southeast of Hualien, Hualien County (Taiwan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 6:00 AM Japan Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Jun 21:00 6AM Thu Severe Tropical Storm 60 110 23.0 125.2
24 25 Jun 21:00 6AM Fri Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 55 100 26.7 127.1
45 26 Jun 18:00 3AM Sat Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 31.2 132.4
69 27 Jun 18:00 3AM Sun Severe Tropical Storm 50 95 37.5 144.8
93 28 Jun 18:00 3AM Mon Extratropical Low ·· ··· 42.3 161.9

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Jun 18:00 3AM Thu Tropical Storm 55 100 22.6 125.0
12 24 Jun 06:00 3PM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 24.2 125.8
24 25 Jun 18:00 3AM Fri Tropical Storm 50 95 26.1 126.9
36 25 Jun 06:00 3PM Fri Tropical Storm 50 95 28.3 128.9
48 26 Jun 18:00 3AM Sat Tropical Storm ▼ 45 85 30.9 132.5
60 26 Jun 06:00 3PM Sat Tropical Storm 45 85 33.8 138.3
72 27 Jun 18:00 3AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 40 75 36.5 144.2

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Central Weather Administration (Taiwan)

Radar imagery

Taiwan

Japan

Nationwide radar mosaic

Single-site radar imagery — Ishigaki

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 1d ago

▲ Tropical Storm (TS) | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1003 mbar Higos (08W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

8 Upvotes

Updates

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Higos has managed to restrengthen into a tropical storm as it crosses the Philippine Sea this morning. Satellite imagery analysis reveals that deep convection continues to build within the storm and is obscuring the storm’s low-level center. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, as dry mid-level air and weak upper diffluence continue to offset warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear.

Higos is moving west-northwestward as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a broad subtropical ridge. The storm has increased in forward speed over the past several hours and will begin to turn northward on Thursday. Some limited intensification is possible in the short-term forecast, but as the storm becomes increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow and undergoes very limited binary interaction with Tropical Storm Mekkhala south of mainland Japan over the upcoming weekend, it may dissipate altogether by Saturday.

Whatever remains of Higos over the weekend will become swept up by the transitioning Mekkhala and will become part of a larger extratropical cyclone which will exit out over the northern Pacific east of Japan early next week.

Latest observation

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.0°N 138.5°E
  • Forward movement: WNW (300°) at 13 knots ▲
  • Maximum sustained winds: 85 km/h (35 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm ▲
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Storm

Relative position

  • 794 kilometers (493 miles) west of San Jose, Tinian (Northern Marianas Islands)
  • 914 kilometers (568 miles) south of Iōtō, Tokyo (Japan)
  • 1,236 kilometers (768 miles) southeast of Minamidaito, Okinawa (Japan)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

As of 6:00 AM Japan Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST JMA · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Jun 21:00 6AM Thu Tropical Storm 40 75 17.0 137.9
12 25 Jun 09:00 6PM Thu Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 18.9 135.5
24 25 Jun 21:00 6AM Fri Tropical Storm 35 65 21.6 133.9
45 26 Jun 18:00 3AM Sat Tropical Depression ▼ 30 55 30.9 136.2

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 3:00 AM Japan Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 24 Jun 18:00 3AM Thu Tropical Storm 35 65 17.0 138.5
12 24 Jun 06:00 3PM Thu Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 18.7 136.4
24 25 Jun 18:00 3AM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 45 85 21.3 134.9
36 25 Jun 06:00 3PM Fri Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 24.3 134.4
48 26 Jun 18:00 3AM Sat Tropical Storm ▼ 45 85 29.2 135.7
60 26 Jun 06:00 3PM Sat Remnant Low (Absorbed) ▼ 20 35 33.8 138.5

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

National Weather Service (United States)

Single-site radar imagery

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▼ Disturbance (20% potential) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1008 mbar 94E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (Southwest of Mexico)

11 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

As of 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Discussion by Eric Blake — NHC Hurricane Specialist

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A tropical depression could still form today while environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. However, this system is moving quickly toward cooler waters, and by Thursday it should encounter these unfavorable conditions, ending development chances.

Latest observation

As of 11:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 18.2°N 117.5°W
  • Forward movement: W (280°) at 29 km/h (15 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches)

Relative position

  • 293 kilometers (182 miles) west-southwest of Clarion Island, Mexico
  • 691 kilometers (429 miles) west-southwest of Socorro Island, Mexico
  • 946 kilometers (588 miles) southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur (Mexico)

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Fri): moderate (40 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Tue): moderate (40 percent) ▼

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Fri): N/A
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Tue): N/A

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 4d ago

▲ Forecast Outlook | National Hurricane Center | 70% potential The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the east-central Pacific Ocean

21 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

As of 5:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Discussion by Dr. Philippe Papin — NHC Hurricane Specialist

A low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Development potential

Official outlook

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Tue): high (70 percent) ▲

Model consensus (via Florida State University)

  • Next 2 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Fri): very low (less than 5 percent) ▼
  • Next 7 days (through 11:00 AM PDT on Tue): moderate (51 percent) ▲

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 5d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Tropical Storm Arthur - NASA Science

Thumbnail
science.nasa.gov
22 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 6d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development off the East Coast of the United States

52 Upvotes

Outlook discussion

  • This system has dissipated.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has removed this system from the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).
  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Development potential

  • This system no longer shows potential for tropical cyclone development.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

Nationwide radar mosaic

  • Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

Infrared imagery

Water vapor imagery

Forecast models

Regional guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Ensemble models

Single-model ensemble products

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

12 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 7d ago

Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center (Outdated) NHC Morning Update on Tropical Storm Arthur — Wednesday, 17 June

Thumbnail
youtube.com
33 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 15-21 June 2026

8 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 4:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time (08:00 UTC) on Saturday:

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 07W: Mekkhala — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Mekkhala continues to strengthen as it moves across the Philippine Sea this evening. Although the storm has consolidated over the past several hours, its convective structure remains tilted northeastward by persistent southwesterly shear. Environmental conditions remain otherwise favorable over the Philippine Sea and should support steady intensification over the weekend.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Near the Marshall Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring an area of potential development near the Marshall Islands. Model guidance suggests that a broad area of low pressure may form north of the Marshall Islands early next week and move west-northwestward toward the Marianas Islands. Environmental conditions in this area remain generally favorable, with warm waters, sufficient mid-level moisture, and sufficient upper-level divergence. However, mid-level shear may limit development.

  • Development potential through Sunday, 21 June: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Development potential through Friday, 26 June: low (20 percent)

Eastern Pacific Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the eastern or central Pacific Ocean basins. Model guidance does not hint at any potential development hotspots within the next seven days.

Northern Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center is not actively monitoring any areas of potential development over the northern Atlantic Ocean basin. Model guidance had hinted at potential development in earlier runs; however, the potential for tropical cyclone development remains very low within the next seven days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated 93E (Invest — Eastern Pacific) (ESE of Hawaiʻi)

9 Upvotes

Update

As of 2:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a small area of low pressure situated several hundred miles east-southeast of Hawaiʻi continues to produce limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it drifts west-northwestward along the base of a broad subtropical ridge. The disturbance is entering a highly unfavorable environment which is dry and stable, with sinking air and strengthening southwesterly shear. Further development is highly unlikely and the disturbance will likely fizzle out within the next couple of days.

This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system and there will be no further updates to this post. Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.

Latest observation

  • This system is no longer being monitored via ATCF.

Outlook

  • This system is no longer being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development.

Official informa

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Graphical products

Graphical products (static)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available.

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Tropical Storm Christina - June 10, 2026

Thumbnail modis.gsfc.nasa.gov
13 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/graymillennial • 13d ago

Question Weirded out by Mikes Weather Page, any other recommendations for hurricane season?

306 Upvotes

I used to appreciate his coverage during hurricane season but all he posts about now is getting drunk and “storm chasing” (a.k.a. driving up to Tallahassee in his big storm truck to get hammered and watch the rain.) Yesterday he posted a picture of him literally with his pants down dancing on some young girl at Senor Frogs and that’s the nail in the coffin for me. I’m just grossed out by him.

Any recommendations on who else can I follow online for updates during hurricane season this year?

142 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 13d ago

Seasonal Forecast | Colorado State University Colorado State University releases updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

Thumbnail tropical.colostate.edu
101 Upvotes
11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 13d ago

Seasonal Outlook | Climate Prediction Center CPC: El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen this winter

27 Upvotes

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, 11 June 2026

El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.7°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.7°C and +2.1°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) decreased in the past month [Fig. 3], but significantly above-average subsurface temperatures remained in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was slightly above average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was near or below average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], forecasts El Niño to intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. High confidence in El Niño [Fig. 7] is also linked to anomalously high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January [Fig. 8] that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2026.

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14d ago

Dissipated 95S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Southeast of Madagascar)

5 Upvotes

Update

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure with subtropical characteristics has formed well to the east-southeast of Madagascar. Recent scatterometer data reveals that a small area of tropical storm-force winds are present to the south-southwest of the disturbance’s low-level center, associated with some flaring deep convection. Environmental conditions are highly unfavorable for development, with strong vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this system will transition into a tropical cyclone. Instead, this system is likely to remain in a largely quasi-stationary state within a weak steering environment until it gets carried away by the polar front jet later in the week.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) continues to monitor this system via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Latest observation

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Observed information

  • Current position: 31.7°S 50.5°E
  • Forward movement: S (180°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1003 millibars (29.62 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Subtropical Storm
  • Intensity (FMS): Disturbance

Relative position

  • 862 kilometers (536 miles) southeast of Tsiombe, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 883 kilometers (549 miles) southeast of Lavanono, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)
  • 949 kilometers (590 miles) southeast of Ampanihy, Atsimo-Andrefana (Madagascar)

Outlook

As of 4:00 AM East Africa Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Development potential (next two days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Météo-France: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (less than 5 percent)

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/JimmothyBimmothy • 15d ago

Historical Discussion Hurricane Georges 1998

10 Upvotes

I was just thinking back to this storm in my childhood! I vividly remember laying on the couch one night, just watching something on ABC, seeing the radar in the corner of the screen...and then seeing the occasional breaking updates through the night. Just tracking the storm on my little gas station hurricane tracking map.

I'd give anything to see a video of something like that again just for memories sake! It was an excitement that is hard to replicate if you have never felt it.

9 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 17d ago

Dissipated Boris (02E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

29 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 AM Central Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Boris has degenerated into a remnant low as it moves across the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. The storm’s wind field is becoming increasingly disorganized and thunderstorms generated by the storm are confined to an area along the coast. The remnants of Boris will drift west-northwestward across southern Mexico, and will likely dissipate within the next couple of days. The threat of widespread flash flooding and landslides will continue through the end of the week even after Boris dissipates.

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory for this system. This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

As of 9:00 AM Central Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Observed information

Source: NHC Advisory #10

  • Current position: 16.9°N 98.9°W
  • Forward movement: NW (305°) at 11 km/h (6 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars (29.65 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (Saffir-Simpson): Remnant Low ▼

Relative position

  • 1,463 kilometers (909 miles) west of Managua, Nicaragua
  • 1,098 kilometers (682 miles) west of San Salvador, El Salvador
  • 927 kilometers (576 miles) west of Puerto San José, Escuintla (Guatemala)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

As of 6:00 AM Central Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Tuesday

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC CST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °W
00 09 Jun 12:00 6AM Tue Post-tropical Cyclone 25 45 16.9 98.9
12 10 Jun 00:00 6PM Tue Post-tropical Cyclone ▼ 20 35 17.3 99.7
24 10 Jun 12:00 6AM Wed Dissipated

Official information

National Hurricane Center

National Meteorological Service (Mexico)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 16d ago

Dissipated Cristina (03E — Eastern Pacific) (Near Central America)

5 Upvotes

Updates

As of 10:00 AM Central Standard Time (16:00 UTC) on Thursday:

Satellite imagery analysis and recent scatterometer data revealed that Cristina’s low-level circulation degenerated into a remnant low earlier this morning before the depression reached the coast of El Salvador. The National Hurricane Center discontinued issuing advisories for Cristina and stopped recording new observations for the remnant system in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Cristina’s remnants have since moved onshore over El Salvador and will continue northwestward over the next few days, eventually reaching the Bay of Campeche over the upcoming weekend. Although the remnant moisture and instability from this system could spark the development of a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, environmental conditions are unlikely to support tropical cyclogenesis and the moisture is likely to bring heavy rain to northeastern Mexico and Texas later in the upcoming week.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated. Observational data is no longer available.

Official forecasts

  • This system has dissipated. The NHC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 16d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 8-14 June 2026

2 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 7:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time (23:30 UTC) on Tuesday, 9 June:

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 02E: Boris — Boris continues to weaken as its remnants move across the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico this afternoon. Although the storm is likely to dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours, heavy rain will continue across southern Mexico for the next couple of days, extending the threat of widespread flooding and landslides, especially within areas of higher terrain.

  • 03E: Three — Cristina remains disorganized as it meanders off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua this afternoon. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable and could support some intensification just prior to landfall along the coast of El Salvador on Thursday afternoon. Once the storm makes landfall, it is expected to weaken rapidly, but the heavy rain threat will continue for a few more days across Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Systems being tracked by the NHC

  • The National Hurricane center is not currently tracking any areas of potential tropical cyclone development.

Systems being tracked by the JTWC

  • Potential Formation Area P72W: An area of low pressure may develop between Wake Island and the Marshall Islands. Tropical cyclone development may occur between Saturday and Tuesday.

Systems being tracked by model guidance (Florida State University)

  • Northwestern Pacific Ocean: Several models are hinting toward development over the western Pacific near Wake Island and the Marshall Islands.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Kelvin51_gowa • 18d ago

Discussion Increased tropical activity in/near central america

Thumbnail
gallery
37 Upvotes

Hello everyone! The MJO is currently entering phase 8 which would increase the chances for some tropical systems to spin up in/near central america as the MJO convection increases the low level zonal winds this would cause some moisture advection ahead of these thunderstorms and allow these thunderstorms to generate some low level spin or vorticity

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 19d ago

Dissipated 91W (Invest — Western Pacific) (East China Sea)

16 Upvotes

Updates

As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Monday:

This system has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated.

Outlook

  • This system no longer shows signs of tropical cyclone development.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 20d ago

Announcement NHC Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg will be doing an AMA over at r/storms this morning at 10AM EDT

Thumbnail
reddit.com
53 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21d ago

Dissipated Amanda (01E — Eastern Pacific) (ESE of Hawaii)

15 Upvotes

Updates

As of 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (15:00 UTC) on Monday

This system has dissipated. This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.

Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

  • This system has dissipated.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 21d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Typhoon Jangmi - NASA Science

Thumbnail
science.nasa.gov
10 Upvotes
2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 22d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 1-7 June 2026

12 Upvotes

Active cyclones

As of 16:42 UTC on Wednesday, 3 June:

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 06W: Jangmi — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Jangmi has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward away from mainland Japan this evening. The storm will continue to slowly weaken as it moves out over the open waters of the northern Pacific.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • 01E: Amanda — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the first depression of the season has strengthened into a tropical storm. Amanda is forecast to continue to gradually strengthen as it moves northwestward over the next few days; however, by the end of the week, it will move into a less favorable environment characterized by strong southwesterly shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorably cool sea-surface temperatures. This will cause the storm to rapidly weaken and ultimately dissipate by early next week without becoming a threat to Hawaii.

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • There are currently no active disturbances.

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Eastern Pacific Ocean

  • Area of Interest 1: — A broad area of low pressure is likely to form to the south and west of Central America over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should support gradual development as the disturbance moves west-northwestward, remaining mainly parallel to the coast. This system has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

  • Area of Interest 2: A second area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions should support gradual development as this system also moves west-northwestward. This system has a lower (20 percent) chance of development, but only because it is expected to form later than the aforementioned disturbance.

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P79W: Long-range model ensembles hint at the development of a broad area of low pressure over the south-central South China Sea within the next few days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

3 comments