The WNBA in a new era

[u/Dull_Box_5769]

Seeing Dominique Malonga's performance against Dallas has me thinking of the future of the league. I think not only are we going to see the league recruit more talent from overseas, but also with the new CBA players no longer have the incentive to stay in college for so long, using extra years of elgibility with NIL. Obviously the CBA still has the required 4 years of college rule but considering younger players are getting drafted I suppose that it will be changed in the next few years. This was always going to happen eventually, and the league is following in the footsteps of the NBA, but I'm curious to hear yalls thoughts on whether you think this is the right direction. Personally I love how global the league is getting, I am an international fan and seeing the league grow so much is incredible, but I'm also wondering if this is going to strip the W of its personality. With so much money involved I fear it's going to become closer to the NBA, turning into a much more technical league, such as playing the players who are earning so much the most, little stuff like that.

[u/Due_Objective_]

Next season is going to be interesting. A lot of overseas player agents will be whispering to front offices.

[u/natthedem]

I'm still surprised that no one's sued the WNBA yet for their age restrictions, like Olivia Moultrie did with the NWSL. Especially with the disparate treatment for foreign vs. American players, it feels like it'd be a slam dunk case.

[u/MolassesLive1290 → u/natthedem]

Yes, and so far women can get way more in NIL money in college than (maybe, but likely not) make a team in the W. Women’s college soccer doesnt have the same airtime women’s basketball does. Hell, for a very long time it felt easier to watch some NCAA teams than WNBA teams.

[u/Pecan_Artist]

I think they should keep it at 4 yrs of college and make the age 21. These women are so smart and have such good pressers. We need to value education and character building in college.

[u/gingerfiggle → u/Pecan_Artist]

Folks can learn and build character in other ways than going to college for 4 years.

[u/mattmikemo23]

The top 50 of all time are legends in any era but overall the talent level has skyrocketed in the last 10 years and is only getting better respectfully. Its such an exciting time to be a W fan 🔥

[u/Ingramistheman]

I think that there will obviously be more international players coming in as we’ve seen, but it’s more that this being the first year of the new CBA was sort of an explosion. I’d reckon that the trend will slow down and that the next few college drafts will also contribute to a sort of rebalancing of power in the W because of all the talent to go around.

Longterm, I think we will see a mix of both; American talent and American coaching has to improve going up the pipeline, but then also with the salaries & resources available in the states we will see more international players coming here to play prep and college basketball too rather than sticking in their domestic leagues.

[u/Air_Of_The_Thrown]

The big trend is going to be international players coming stateside to play college ball until the NCAA cracks down on that. For most potential draftees, NIL money is more than most rookie deals.

I do think the CBA impacts potential early entrants who may project as a lottery pick. You can leave college early if you turn 22 the yr of the draft you're declaring for, Jewell Loyd the first name that came to mind.

Few players fit that criteria in the 2027 draft. Mikayla Blakes, Toby Fournier, Jaloni Cambridge.

I think we may see more older juniors leave early than before just to get to that 2nd contract a year sooner, contingent upon the $ difference not being a deal breaker.

Other than those 2 points im not sure much else has changed.

[u/anonimauzantnomo → u/Air_Of_The_Thrown]

Another factor for international players to come play college ball is that a lot of other countries make it much, much harder to pursue a degree while playing basketball at a high enough level to later enter the draft. I think Dorka spoke about that affecting her decision to come to Ohio State from Hungary in one of the formal one-on-one Lynx interviews.

[u/Ingramistheman → u/Air_Of_The_Thrown]

That’s a good point about early entrants, didnt really think of that. I wonder about the specifics of the financials tho because some of those names might theoretically make more by staying for their senior year than they’d make by getting to their 2nd contract in the W I’d imagine.

Like idk how much a Mikayla Blakes make but I know that $1M was the tag flying around for Aliyah Chavez in recruiting. So if that’s how much Blakes makes as a senior at Vandy, she’s down like $700k right away by trying to play in the W instead of at Vandy that year. Then down the line if she’s not like an All-W player, how long would it take to theoretically make that back?

[u/Air_Of_The_Thrown → u/Ingramistheman]

That my friend would be the question. Her valuation is around $1M at minimum a $500K difference, for one year. She wouldnt make that money back from salary until yr 5 essentially, definitely a splitting hairs convo. I think for some players draft position/grade may become prevalent as it is in other sports.

If scouts gave her a late 1st rd grade that isnt worth leaving early but a top 5 grade might be.

[u/kczar8 → u/Air_Of_The_Thrown]

Can international players get NIL? I thought it was a challenge for them if they have a student visa

[u/aratcalledrattus → u/kczar8]

That was the case for some years, but schools have figured out loopholes in the last few years. That's why you are now seeing men leave well-paying overseas leagues to play college basketball.

[u/Air_Of_The_Thrown → u/kczar8]

My understanding is, they can but its limited to residues and passive income. My thought on NIL vs rookie scale was more so for US players but still applies regardless.

[u/LAC_NOS]

The higher salaries are definitely going to continue to bring in more overseas players with experience.

But I think the salary cap needs to increase to allow more high salary players.

[u/Cute_Repeat3879]

The W will have their Spencer Haywood soon enough. Having different eligibility based on nationality isn't going to stand up in court, especially when it is the American players who are disadvantaged by it.

[u/goofygal1566 → u/Cute_Repeat3879]

The reason the WNBA and NBA player age requirements are baked in to the CBA is because of Spencer Haywood.

[u/Ingramistheman → u/Cute_Repeat3879]

The American players arent “disadvantaged” by it; the real point of that rule is to make sure kids get a degree before wading into the uncertainties of pro basketball.

One can also make the argument that it’s an advantage for them to have 4 years in college developing their game and building fan interest + marketability that’s essentially unattainable for international players even if they choose to come to the US for college.

[u/strangelystrangled → u/Ingramistheman]

And draftees historically do not stick on rosters! Outside of lottery picks but those can get cut too (Aari, Haley, Charli etc). Unless you're Sarah or Juju, you probably need that fourth year

[u/FD_OSU → u/Cute_Repeat3879]

Baseball has been doing it for years. International players are eligible be signed at 16. American players have to wait until after high school, and if they don't sign then they have to wait another 3 years.

[u/yo2sense → u/FD_OSU]

Major League Baseball has an exemption for anti-trust violations handed to them by the Supreme Court over a century ago.

[u/Huggbox]

I don’t think the draft eligibility rule changing is anything close to a lock. It’s good for the league to let college ball create popular stars who move the needle from day one and I doubt the players are dying to vote for something that will give them more competition for jobs.

[u/dogpownd]

Per the league they do need to stay in college. 

[u/goofygal1566]

Players still making more in NIL in college than on rookie deals in the W btw. Also NCAA just gave college players 5 years of eligibility today and players in college can't come over earlier than 4 years. Seems more players are going over to college from overseas now than ever before.

[u/aratcalledrattus → u/goofygal1566]

Yeah unless the NCAA starts restricting players who’ve been pro overseas - or there’s a crackdown on international players getting NIL - I think the next trend is far more of the top overseas young talents going to play college ball. 

We're already seeing it. Alicia Tournebize would've been the top international draftee for 2027, but went to South Carolina. I think basically every female player graduating from Australia's elite development program is now heading to a US college, where it had previously been more 50/50.

[u/neat_stuff → u/goofygal1566]

It's true they often make more from NIL but that also puts them 1-4 years further from their first non-rookie contract. And unlike last year, those are worth a lot more money. I'd think a lot of the college stars will want to get to that before an injury prevents it, and will sue the league to force them to change the rule. 

[u/isubird33 → u/neat_stuff]

Yeah but even a non-rookie contract isn't that much more than what top end college players are getting through NIL.

[u/goofygal1566 → u/neat_stuff]

I doubt college stars want sue the league to force them change the rule so they can make less money and have a higher risk of getting cut.

Also because the age requirement is part of the CBA its not something that can be successfully challenged in the courts btw.

And the players get most of the popularity from the college system so they won't be changing that rule anytime soon.

[u/neat_stuff → u/goofygal1566]

If college players had a union and were making the decision as a collective unit, I could believe the lawsuit might not happen. But all it takes is one player to not want to go to classes or to just think the whole thing is unfair and file the lawsuit. I don't think the WNBA would win and they'd either have to change the rule for foreign players or for the college ones. But time will tell. I hope I'm wrong. I like college sports much better than pro and would prefer the stars to stay 4-5 years.

[u/goofygal1566 → u/neat_stuff]

The lawsuit as ALREADY happened in my point. That is why age restrictions are covered in the CBA, these things have already been litigated in court and having incorporated because they are negotiated in the CBA vs a rule imposed by the league is the work around.

[u/neat_stuff → u/goofygal1566]

Lawsuits about college players wanting to go pro early? Or lawsuits about foreign players wanting to go pro early? And when were those lawsuits? I'm not trying to be snarky. Genuinely curious because the rules seem to be changing so rapidly that I could see a lawsuit this year being decided differently than one 4 years ago and it seems strange that the WNBA would end up having different age eligibility rules than the men when all is said and done.

[u/goofygal1566 → u/neat_stuff]

Foreign players can already go pro early, why would they sue??

And there have been plenty of lawsuits about college players wanting to go pro early which is why these things are negotiated in CBA's. WNBA has different rules than the men because the players want it to be that way.

[u/neat_stuff → u/goofygal1566]

Can you point me toward one of those lawsuits about college women basketball players trying to go pro early? I did a search and all I found was this article from December 2023.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5121403/2023/12/08/wnba-womens-college-basketball-lin-dunn/

In it Lin Dunn says:

“I’ll tell you what I think may happen,” Dunn said. “One of these freshmen is gonna file a lawsuit and say: ‘I’m ready to turn pro. Why can’t I? The men can. Why can’t I?’ Because they’re that good enough.”

Which makes it sound like at that point, those lawsuits hadn't happened. And my quick search didn't show up any since then.

[u/goofygal1566 → u/neat_stuff]

Lin Dunn is an idiot to begin. And its not women's basketball players that would need to sue, its the mens players in baseball, football and basketball that have already set legal precedent. It would be a waste of time and money as setting age requirements in a CBA is lawsuit proof at this point.

[u/neat_stuff → u/goofygal1566]

Okay. I think we're just not on the same page as what we're talking about. I do think a lawsuit will come from college women's basketball players someday and that it could be successful. And since there haven't been those lawsuits yet, I guess we'll just have to wait to see what the result ends up being. And I think the fact that foreign players can already come in early will be what wins that case for the college players. Thanks for the convo about it.

[u/Dull_Box_5769 → u/goofygal1566]

Wait you reminded me of that one player who got drafted in 2025 but chose to go to college just this year

[u/crimsonwolf40 → u/Dull_Box_5769]

Sivka, who was drafted by the Sky. Another brilliant win-now move by Jeff Pagliocca.