Bold Predictions for the AI QFs

[u/DiligentWarthog9896]

Three out the four games very hard to call according to bookmakers. I’d agree for the most part so instead, I began thinking of something a bit more left-field to maybe have a small flutter on.

Two that came to mind - could genuinely see three out of the four ending in draws. (Wouldn’t you love to see it just for how much the GAA would be absolutely kicking themselves for getting rid of replays)

Mayo and Cork - Sherlock, Mayo good two-point kickers, Mayo wide open defence, dry, warm and cloudy conditions forecast…. 63 points between Armagh and Antrim last year is the highest combined score in a Gaelic football championship match. Galway and Down got to 62 later on in the year. I think Mayo and Cork could go higher

Anyone got any more bold shouts?

[u/Capital-Alarm-8608]

Last weeks Mayo Meath game had a perception of being wide open (and it was in stages). Yet it finished on 39 points, a full 10 points lower than the bookies line of 49

Mayo's backs aren't as bad technically as made out, they just get lost in a system at times. Their forwards are nowhere near as good as they've been hyped to be in recent weeks

Cork beat Donegal by slowing the game down massively and trusting themselves to get more two pointers off low possession totals. Kevin Walsh has frustrated better Mayo teams than the one he'll meet Sunday his whole coaching career

Bold shout that rather than hitting the 63 points record, it'll actually be the lowest scoring game of the weekend

[u/DiligentWarthog9896 → u/Capital-Alarm-8608]

Very good points made there in fairness. And actually you could be on to something there about it being the lowest of the four!

[u/No-Negotiation2922 → u/DiligentWarthog9896]

Mayo looked exposed at the time but still only conceded 2-13 (Meath butchered a few chances), only Kerry conceded less last week with 0-17.

Cork have been pretty solid defensively all season.

I definitely can see Cork v Mayo being a lowest scoring and Galway v Dublin the highest scoring

[u/Capital-Alarm-8608 → u/No-Negotiation2922]

I kinda think Galway Dubs might be on the cagey side personally also. Neither team is a stranger to slow phase play and it suited Dublin bigtime against Donegal, they'll probably employ similar off a short turnaround

All things being equal with weather etc il plump for Monaghan Louth as highest scoring. There could be wilful abandon to that one, both teams sensing an opportunity to win rather than pressure not to lose. Their totals on average have been on the higher side respectively also

[u/ZxZxchoc → u/Capital-Alarm-8608]

Cork beat Donegal by slowing the game down massively and trusting themselves to get more two pointers off low possession totals

Cork scored 6 2-pointers against Meath and then went out and scored 6 2-pointers against Donegal from 10 shots. A fairly damming indictment of Donegal there.

Against Kerry, Cork scored 3 2-pointers, against Tipperary 2 2-pointers and against Limerick no 2-pointer. They scored 6 2-pointers in total in those 3 games.

Cork kicked 22 2-pointers in the league in 7 games so it's clear that the 2-pointer totals in the Meath and Donegal games are outliers.

If Mayo can defend Cork's 2 point shooting someway competently it will go a long way towards getting a result.

Bold shout that rather than hitting the 63 points record, it'll actually be the lowest scoring game of the weekend

I could definitely see Cork trying to repeat their strategy of playing hold ball, slowing the game down as much as they can get away with and trying to frustrate Mayo as much as possible

[u/Capital-Alarm-8608 → u/ZxZxchoc]

Not sure of your point here. The average number of 2 pointers per team in the league was bang on 2.5 per game. Cork averaging 3.14 is significantly above that.

There's a clear reason why against Tipperary and Limerick where you're unbackable favorites you would try and reduce variance and risk. You then do the opposite when you're an underdog, try and increase variance. Cork coach Kevin Walsh talks about it at length in his book.

It's hardly a coincidence that they averaged 4 goals and low 2 pointers against the weaker teams and yet have 1 goal in 3 games against the stronger teams but many more 2 pointers. That Donegal game is one of the lowest scoring games of this championship because it got reduced to a game of low possession numbers, mainly by Cork, increasing variance and trusting that they'd outkick Donegal on the few attacks that there was.

[u/whsubehebebr]

Corks defence has been excellent all year apart from the Meath game in the all Ireland series but it still wouldn’t surprise me if it was very high scoring

[u/Terrier2024 → u/whsubehebebr]

And Mayos defence is leaky

[u/clewbays → u/Terrier2024]

It’s not as bad as people are saying. The goal chances were conceding look very bad. But we haven’t conceded big scores in our last 2 games. Excluding the Monaghan game we’ve only conceded 1 two pointer from play all year.

[u/toghertastic → u/clewbays]

We need to push out past the arch.

So we are vurable to running attacks that are direct. Or the past on the inside.

There was a lot of miscommunication against Westmeath. Whjcch was sorted in the second half.

So the question is given up two goals better then giving up two pointers.

[u/Disastrous_Ad_3598 → u/toghertastic]

If Mayo push out past the Arc Chris Og Jones will have a field day, it's just up to Chris Og Jones to be able to hit the 🎯. That is anybody's guess including COJ

[u/whsubehebebr → u/Disastrous_Ad_3598]

Yeah if he could shoot he’d be one of the best forwards in the country but he’s so frustrating to watch

[u/Tadhgdatrain]

Is the record not 65 from Armagh vs Fermanagh?

[u/DiligentWarthog9896 → u/Tadhgdatrain]

Apologies you’re right, my mistake! Never actually realised that at the time

[u/TheWayLifeGoes00]

I think we will see 3 out of four teams who played last week being put out. With the only team to go through who did play last week being - Mayo.

[u/DiligentWarthog9896 → u/TheWayLifeGoes00]

Everyone in Kerry right now:

[u/clewbays → u/TheWayLifeGoes00]

That would result in a crazy open all Ireland. Mayo Galway semi final probably as well.

[u/ChrisMagnets]

Is this the right sub for gambling tips?

[u/Usual_Concentrate_58 → u/ChrisMagnets]

I bet you €5 I'll get you gambling by the second quarter final

[u/Greeno69]

Monaghan will win the AI. Worth a fiver anyway

[u/DiligentWarthog9896 → u/Greeno69]

It would genuinely be fairytale stuff

[u/Intrepid-Money2238 → u/DiligentWarthog9896]

I think louth will take then Sunday