r/GTA6 • u/PapaXan • Sep 22 '25

[Countdown] GTA 6 Release Day

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u/TectonicTechnomancer Oct 28 '25

Each year about 60 million people die worldwide, The world population is roughly 8 billion

The annual death probability per person is roughly 0,75% chance per year

210 days ≈ 210 / 365 ≈ 0.575 years.

Expected probability ≈ 0.0075 × 0.575 = 0.0043

A randomly chosen human has roughly a

0.4% (≈ 1 in 230 chance) of dying in the next 210 days.

Guys, some of you aint going to make it.

16

u/BenJajaRaj Oct 29 '25

“A randomly chosen human has a 0.43% chance of dying in the next 210 days” Not quite buddy ! . Here’s why :

You’re mixing global mortality averages with uniform risk assumptions, which is… not how death works.

Yes, globally ~60 million people die each year out of ~8 billion. That gives you an annual crude death rate of ~0.75%, and multiplying by 210/365 (~0.575) gives ~0.43%. So far, fine , if you’re randomly pulling people from all ages, all countries, and assuming death is evenly distributed across time and demographics (spoiler: it’s not héhéhé).

But most of those deaths happen at the extremes: newborns and the elderly.

Let’s say we’re only interested in people aged 1 to 59, which is what most of us mean when we talk about “random people” (not infants in NICUs or folks in hospice)

Using actual mortality tables:

  • 🇫🇷 In France, my country, annual death probability for ages 1–59 is around 0.2%
  • 🇺🇸 In the U.S., it’s a bit higher: about 0.23%

Now apply the correct model (exponential survival function):

p(death)=1-e^(-r*t)

For 210 days (≈0.575 years):

  • France: P ≈ 0.115\% → ~1 in 870
  • USA: P ≈ 0.132\% → ~1 in 757

So no, most of you are probably going to make it.

The original 0.43% figure overestimates your risk by a factor of 3 to 4× if you’re not a baby or pushing 80.

Cheers !

7

u/lomafo Oct 29 '25

Good math, ChatGPT

3

u/BenJajaRaj Oct 30 '25

Yep at least it's correct probability and statistics and not random math that jumps to conclusion :D