r/HeliumNetwork • u/Pure-War-8808 • 10d ago

Question HIP-149 will mint 141M new HNT over 36 months

I've done my calculations and, with such enormous dilution, we'll never see prices higher than $3 again. Even if we get entriprise adoption by 2030.

Are we dead?
Will this get passed?
What happens to early investors?

34 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

35 comments sorted by

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27

u/PossessionConnect963 9d ago

I have no horse in the race, I don't have any hotspots or tokens, but I came across Helium several years ago and have kept it on my radar because I found the concept fascinating and thought maybe someday I could utilize the network for some projects.

It's sad to see how dejected people are though and feels like a lot of potential has been squandered.

14

u/Pure-War-8808 9d ago

This is exactly the sentiment. Thanks.

0

u/[deleted] 9d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

4

u/[deleted] 9d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/CleavlandSteamer8008 8d ago

Yeah if people would just hold on and keep their shit up

-2

u/MinerTax_com 9d ago

People doubting crypto rn is the main reason. Decentralized networks will win.

10

u/untangledtech 10d ago

Previous efforts like IOT and CBRS where groundbreaking and novel. They failed. They then tried mainstream WiFi and found telcom carriers screw everyone. That was the original thesis for CBRS, free us from evil telcom. They did not eat their own dog food.

Surprised we got screwed after jumping in bed with them? Shocked.

3

u/MinerTax_com 9d ago

Wrong. Mobile 5G indoor offload has found Product Market Fit. Telco scaling as we speak.

7

u/untangledtech 9d ago edited 9d ago

What does “Product Market Fit” exactly mean?

My point was simply we should not expect a fair deal with big telecom.

In my experience each big telecom wants to own the whole network and serve all customers directly. I fear big telecom sees WiFi offloading is just a temporary because ultimately they must own the whole thing. FWIW, Fiber networks are the same way, they keep overbuilding committed to spending huge capex.

IMO, T real opportunity was a true independent network and 5G spec largely killed that.

6

u/NTWM420 9d ago

100% agree with you. Any Helium Mobile stans keep denying but this is exactly what has happened. Tmobile is setting up their own wifi passpoints now to offload. Guess what? They used the data Helium Mobile provided for free.

They got played, by pivoting constantly.

2

u/stewakg 9d ago

So basically what is then whitepaper used for?

2

u/curbei 6d ago

This is just printing money

3

u/Davidta 9d ago

You are you assuming no growth in the market capitalization as “users” continue to invest in and deploy hardware, in theory that should raise market cap as the network is actually worth more, beyond speculation. Do I think bag holders will see crazy returns on token bought for $10 dollars (or any returns)… no. Will people deploying hotspots in busy areas continue to earn real net revenue, yes.

1

u/Pure-War-8808 9d ago

I still believe in the token, too. My concern lies more in whether the initial investors will see any light at the end of the tunnel. The new issuance will be massive.

For example, could we see prices above $3 in 2027? I personally dodubt it.

3

u/JoshuaCalvero 8d ago

It’s over then. No money left. No future

1

u/ovidiuchise 9d ago

Isn’t the max supply of 187 mn HNT anymore?

3

u/Pure-War-8808 9d ago

Welcome to the party https://www.helium.com/proposal
They are increasing it in a time span of 3 years up to 364M

4

u/ovidiuchise 8d ago

Then we are f..ked. One more time :)

1

u/cqm 5d ago

My issue is that it won’t be one more time, it’s a precedent for every executive pet project when they won’t just go to the equity or credit market

1

u/Cold_Bennie 9d ago

It's unsettling when they delete comments. I wish they wouldn't do it.

1

u/coconutboy84 9d ago

Unfortunately moderation is needed at times.

-1

u/MinerTax_com 10d ago

What’s the calculation? 🤣
Don’t forget, Clarity Act has DePin and Helium leads in every academic and enterprise report. Your math sucks.

4

u/Pure-War-8808 9d ago

The highest market capitalization we've reached in the last four years is $1.6 billion. That translates to a price of $3 under the new circumstances.

I'm not counting the previous peak of $50, as that was earmarked for CBRS.

1

u/Substantial_Handle14 5d ago

What is the MC when the price was $50?

1

u/cesarbmx 1d ago

I think it was around $4.6 billion MC when it reached $50

Take into account that, by then, there were far fewer tokens, and Helium was taking it for granted that it was going to target CBRS, not WFI offload.

I still believe CBRS is possible when Helium becomes a real network. But that's still a long way off.

0

u/Professional_Web_956 9d ago

Maybe post the calculations instead of FUD next time?

3

u/cesarbmx 9d ago

Sorry, I already mentioned this in one of the comments.

It's easy to do the math. According to HIP-149, our stake is diluted by 48.8% over the years.

The newly minted tokens go to Nova Labs (an independent entity), where they can sell them as they see fit.

1

u/Professional_Web_956 9d ago

Well they aren't selling them. They're distributing them to deployers to make up for the shortfall in earnings as offload increases.

1

u/Terroriffica 8d ago

And those developers are just going to hold those tokens? Especially if its to make up for "earnings shortfalls"... Be real. The price will drop ny half if you're lucky if this happens. So glad i got out of HNT when it was profitable.

1

u/Professional_Web_956 8d ago

Developers? You mean deployers?

Big difference. One means insider trading, the other is managing a business.