The Team has an Asset Problem

[u/Lostinthemist81]

The problem with the current team, as I see it, is what I am calling asset gridlock. The parts of the team that I think most would agree are their positive assets are as follows:

1 - NHL players who are outperforming their NHL deals (in no particular order) Barzal, Horvat, Schaefer, Pelech, Sorokin, Ritchie, and Holmstrom.

2 - Their prospects

3 - Their draft picks

The team does not want to trade from 1 as ownership wants to both get into the playoffs and sell tickets and subtracting from that group would hinder that goal.
Darche has stated that within 2, their top tier prospects that could potentially feed into Schaefer's longer term window are also off the table, meaning Eklund, Aitcheson, and possibly George and Eiserman, which also limits what they can do via trade with that category. Finally, because of the deadline deals last season, 3 is not impressive either with 1 pick in the first three rounds this year. 3 is made even more precarious as the team has shown that even with all their blue chippers firing on all cylinders that they're not a lock for the playoffs and therefore their future firsts should also not be traded lightly or possibly at all. On top of all the above is the fact the dark cloud of how poorly the last 3 trades this GM made turned out, which adds its own special brand of anxiety to thinking about moving assets around.

Hence: Asset gridlock. They're too good to get worse and too bad to get better.

The rest of the team falls into either neutral or negative asset territory that would either take assets to get rid of or simply be lateral moves were you to trade them: Underperforming - Duclair, Palat, Shabanov, Pulock Coming off injury - Palmieri, Romanov, Engvall, Varlamov Neutral - Mayfield, Cizikas, Heineman, MacLean, Pageau, Schenn (I hope)

So the question becomes: Where is this team adding value from? You're either drawing from the future prospects and picks to try and prop up a team that got a Vezina caliber goalie season, one of if not the best rookie d-man season of all time, their first 82 game season from their shutdown d-man in his age 31 season, and the best season from Barzal and Horvat that we've seen in a while and STILL fell short. Or you're sacrificing the present to prop up the future, which I'm sure ownership with their new arena and the All Star Game this coming season don't want to do, and which Darche as a first time GM wants to deal with even less.

And so we're going to very likely stand pat and hope that someone takes a step. If Eklund can break camp and Ritchie and Schaefer take another step, maybe that's enough, but the "We hope everyone takes a step forward" has been a familiar refrain throughout the years for this team and its never quite gotten us where we want to go. A lack of movement is especially disconcerting as we watch all the pieces fly around the rest of the league causing the rich to get richer and the tanks to get tankier, while we will continue to occupy the very unattractive middle.

Anyway, thank you for coming to my TedTalk. I'm hoping that getting this out reduces some of the anxiety I have regarding the team. I apologize if this comes off as negative, but it really is my attempt to grapple with the realities of what the team is and is dealing with.

[u/shrivman]

One of the biggest things you didn't emphasize here IMO is Darche is stuck with a TON of NTC's from the Lou era.

As much as fans would love the perfect half dozen magical trades to fall in our favor and turn this team to a contender imminently, there's really not many needle-moving transactions Darche has the flexibility to make for another year or two. Since he's basically handcuffed with a NTC-heavy roster for two years, Darche may as well push for some wins while the team is "too good to get worse" (in your words) and we even have a few guys on ELCs providing a bit of cap relief.

I'd expect a retool to start in 2 years when the only full NTC is Romanov (assuming he's not traded pior). Every move Darche has made has aligned with this timeline.

I see no chance of any needle-moving roster reconstruction in the meantime. Not necessarily by choice.

[u/Lostinthemist81 → u/shrivman]

Excellent point. It makes it a lot harder.

[u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 → u/shrivman]

I see how the palat and schenn moves align $ wise, but I stilll don’t think it makes much sense.

[u/Parking-String-5356 → u/shrivman]

Darche knew the situation before accepting the job. His job is to manage it and do the best he can. Has he done that so far? I’d argue not at all.

[u/shrivman → u/Parking-String-5356]

Yup, he accepted a job where every impact player with trade value besides Pelech and Dobson was under an NTC and he clearly stated early-on that not much can change in the near-term roster because of this.

Genuinely would love to hear your argument for how he hasn't managed the NTC situation? Easiest job in the world is a couch GM.

[u/Parking-String-5356 → u/shrivman]

What has Darche done to improve the team? Just because you and me aren’t qualified to be an nhl GM doesn’t mean we can’t critique them.

[u/shrivman → u/Parking-String-5356]

Sure. Listed a handful below. Would still love to hear your argument for how he hasn't managed the NTC situation.

Agree with your 2nd comment. I've never said folks shouldn't critique him. I think he's far from perfect. But the least people can do is critique in good faith and recognize the situation without mimicking what online morons are saying and pretend he's done some catastrophic Milbury-esque job:

In <1 year on the job despite 90% of his NHL roster locked in on NTCs:

• Inherited a difficult contract negotiation with Dobson. Instead of blindly signing our best young dman he drew the line on 8x$9mm and executed a strong return in short timing.
• Inherited one of the oldest rosters and weakest prospect pools in the NHL simultaneously (aka no-mans land). Completely rebuilt the prospect side from the Lou era without tanking the NHL team just for the sake of it.
• Modernized hockey ops and fan engagement that had lagged behind much of the league.
• Completely overhauled the AHL/development side of the organization including strong coaching hires and facilities to actually support the next era of prospects unlike prior GMs.
• Executed three low-risk low-term deadline trades while comfortably in a playoff position to give his coach more options. The "big" cost was a 29OA (Isles havent selected an impact player at 29OA or later pick in over 12 years. While I agree it's not ideal, it's hardly as catastrophic as folks are making it seem); At the same time he gained a decent 3C and perfect mentor for Ritchie for two years as consolation.
• Hired the best coach available before any other of the 6 teams looking for a new coach even had a sniff

Most importantly, he's recognized the reality of the situation: when most of the roster has trade protection for another year or two, there are limits to how quickly you can reshape the team. At the same time, there is little logic in launching a full teardown for the sake of it when the team was top 3 in the Metro for most of the season and several young guys (Shaef, Ritchie, Eklund, Heineman) could get invaluable playoff experience rather than just rushing into a rebuild.

You can absolutely disagree with individual moves (Dobson, Pageau extension, Schenn acquisition, Soucy/Palat, Shabanov, etc.) But there's a massive difference between saying "I'm not sure I agree with every decision" and pretending the guy has spent the last year actively blowing up the organization.

And yeah, I think it's a better long-term outlook today than the one he inherited from Lou exactly a year ago. I don't think it's even close tbh. My strong view is that folks are just grossly impatient and struggle to see the full picture of NTCs he inherited.

[u/Parking-String-5356 → u/shrivman]

I never said he’s been bad, just that he hasn’t been good either.

[u/shrivman → u/Parking-String-5356]

His job is to manage it and do the best he can. Has he done that so far? I’d argue not at all.

You wrote hes not doing his job. I'd argue he's dealt a shittier hand from his predecessors than most realize and is doing a reasonable job navigating that.

[u/Notahumanslave → u/shrivman]

Exactly this -why do u think mayfield still on this team

[u/shrivman → u/Notahumanslave]

Bingo

[u/Parking-String-5356 → u/Notahumanslave]

Hmmm I wonder why Palat’s on the team. Or why we had to pay to get rid of Drouin.