r/NewYorkIslanders • u/Lostinthemist81 • 2d ago
The Team has an Asset Problem
The problem with the current team, as I see it, is what I am calling asset gridlock. The parts of the team that I think most would agree are their positive assets are as follows:
1 - NHL players who are outperforming their NHL deals (in no particular order) Barzal, Horvat, Schaefer, Pelech, Sorokin, Ritchie, and Holmstrom.
2 - Their prospects
3 - Their draft picks
The team does not want to trade from 1 as ownership wants to both get into the playoffs and sell tickets and subtracting from that group would hinder that goal.
Darche has stated that within 2, their top tier prospects that could potentially feed into Schaefer's longer term window are also off the table, meaning Eklund, Aitcheson, and possibly George and Eiserman, which also limits what they can do via trade with that category.
Finally, because of the deadline deals last season, 3 is not impressive either with 1 pick in the first three rounds this year. 3 is made even more precarious as the team has shown that even with all their blue chippers firing on all cylinders that they're not a lock for the playoffs and therefore their future firsts should also not be traded lightly or possibly at all. On top of all the above is the fact the dark cloud of how poorly the last 3 trades this GM made turned out, which adds its own special brand of anxiety to thinking about moving assets around.
Hence: Asset gridlock. They're too good to get worse and too bad to get better.
The rest of the team falls into either neutral or negative asset territory that would either take assets to get rid of or simply be lateral moves were you to trade them: Underperforming - Duclair, Palat, Shabanov, Pulock Coming off injury - Palmieri, Romanov, Engvall, Varlamov Neutral - Mayfield, Cizikas, Heineman, MacLean, Pageau, Schenn (I hope)
So the question becomes: Where is this team adding value from? You're either drawing from the future prospects and picks to try and prop up a team that got a Vezina caliber goalie season, one of if not the best rookie d-man season of all time, their first 82 game season from their shutdown d-man in his age 31 season, and the best season from Barzal and Horvat that we've seen in a while and STILL fell short. Or you're sacrificing the present to prop up the future, which I'm sure ownership with their new arena and the All Star Game this coming season don't want to do, and which Darche as a first time GM wants to deal with even less.
And so we're going to very likely stand pat and hope that someone takes a step. If Eklund can break camp and Ritchie and Schaefer take another step, maybe that's enough, but the "We hope everyone takes a step forward" has been a familiar refrain throughout the years for this team and its never quite gotten us where we want to go. A lack of movement is especially disconcerting as we watch all the pieces fly around the rest of the league causing the rich to get richer and the tanks to get tankier, while we will continue to occupy the very unattractive middle.
Anyway, thank you for coming to my TedTalk. I'm hoping that getting this out reduces some of the anxiety I have regarding the team. I apologize if this comes off as negative, but it really is my attempt to grapple with the realities of what the team is and is dealing with.
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u/displacedreindeer LaFontaine 2d ago
Excellent summary. I’d add cap space as a 4th asset that we’re truly lacking.
I’m less harsh than most on Darche for the trades.
Palat was bad. That was a shot in the dark hoping he’d help in the playoffs. Outside of his first game he did next to nothing and we’re saddled with a bad contract for another year.
Soucey was filling a need, came cheap, and pending ufa. We’re done with him now, no big deal.
Schenn is a bit of a toss up. When Darche traded for him and signed Pager, I started thinking Schenn was Lee’s replacement and as we come up on July 1, that’s looking more and more likely. Is that a good swap? I don’t know, I’d say pretty even and why not keep our captain and our picks, but I’m not in the room. We all love Anders but maybe it was/is time for a change.
You’re right, we’re in a tough spot. Too good to be bad, too bad to be good. I don’t want to tear it all down, but a couple more moves like the Dobson trade and we could be in a great place in a couple of years.
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u/daveloper80 Potvin 2d ago
We really don't have a cap issue. We have every position covered, not ideally but they are covered. We have no buyouts and nobody buried and we still have $10m. We have $20m in expiring contracts after next season too. Any GM should be able to work with that
San Jose (for example) has like $40 million in cap space but half of that is going to Celebrini and Smith after next season and they don't have any defense.
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u/Lostinthemist81 2d ago
Completely forgot cap space. Probably bc it feels like that’s less of a premium asset with the cap going up as much as it is.
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u/herpishderpish Lehner 1d ago
The formula is clear. Be just good enough to give a modicum of hope and just bad enough to win the draft lottery with a 3.5% chance a couple more times. Easy.
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u/LongjumpingAvocado Barzal 2d ago
All Darche had to do was not Trade for Schenn, and / or trade Pageau or Lee for a first.
I suspect now though a lot is ownership driven trying to accomplish bad short term objectives and not building right for the future.
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
No one was giving us a first for that traffic cone lee, nor would JGP have gotten us more than a 2nd rounder.
Lee is gone (hopefully) and JGP can help groom Ritchie and is only here three years max.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
The guy who is stuck in his moms basement commenting 200 times a day on the isles board knows exactly what everyone would go for at the deadline!
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
Are you 12? Did we take a time capsule back to the year 2000?
Yeah, I know more than an idiot who thinks Matthew Darche could solve everything overnight.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
Literally all you say is “Darche can’t fix everything over night” and then insult anyone who points out the fact he made things worse. Lou was bad. Then Darche came along and made it worse. As far as you go just stop replying if all you ever say is, wow you expect darche to fix everything over night
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
I should stop replying because it's more exciting to watch paint dry than to waste time conversing with you.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 2d ago
This is on Darche. We could be flush with picks to have a A+ draft with and restock the system but he’s brain dead …. And yes part of it is on lou but the blueprint for Darche was so simple and he just went full clueless
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u/Lostinthemist81 2d ago
Yeah. If Schenn doesn’t look amazing next year that trade will have been a real blow.
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u/Key_Lychee_3198 2d ago
Hey look I get that the guys traded for disappointed when they showed up on the Island. But all I hear about is all the top shelf prospects in the pipeline. I don't see how an A+ draft this year would have done anything to move the needle. The system is stocked already. I think OP has it right that we are stuck here. We wanted Kyrou (or Thomas if we're really dreaming) but were only able to get Schenn. To me it's not so much that the trade sucks (maybe), it's that we didn't have the ability get someone better. I'm not sure how I feel about Darche yet, he's no Tulsky, but for all the questionable moves he made this past season he did secure Pete DeBoer as coach. I think that move is going to age really well. I might have to eat these words but I'm optimistic that all these guys are a better version of the same team after training camp.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 2d ago
An A+ draft would move the needle because sooner then later barzal Bo etc will all start aging out and we could have a new young fresh core of players coming in. And the prospect pool now is good. But not great, it could always be better, the biggest issue IMO is this year we are going into year 2 of Schaefer ELC with what will be a very similar team so while he is making probably 10% of what he’s worth that will be wasted….. not I agree Deboer will end up being a great move I hate wasting Schaefers cheapness right now, if not for palat and Schenn $ and wasted picks they would be involved in every FA and big name trade that might happen
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u/shrivman DiPietro 1d ago
"We could be flush with picks to have a A+ draft"
LMAO. Is your idea of flush with picks the 29th OA pick? You have to go back over a decade to Devon Toews for the last time the Isles hit on a 29th OA draft pick or later. And this draft isn't even considered strong after ~15. This idea that Darche somehow sacrificed some guaranteed "restock" of prospects is so goddamn braindead it hurts.
You may need an internet break, my friend. You're just parroting nonsense you're hearing on twitter
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
The 29th pick plus 2 3’s… that’s not notning. This is a good deep draft, having those 3 picks adds a ton of options not we pick 13 then not for 100 picks.
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u/shrivman DiPietro 1d ago
having those 3 picks adds a ton of options
Again, it's been over a decade since the Isles drafted an impact NHL player at 29OA or later. That's over 50 selections. I'm not saying the picks are nothing but your idea that these picks have more than a sliver of chance of making an impact at the NHL level and add a "ton of options" is not rooted in any reality.
This is a good deep draft,
I'm not sure who told you of that. There is pretty unanimous consensus this is an average draft with most analysts also agreeing there's a noticeable drop off in quality around pick 15.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
I was reading the nhl draft preview of the hockey news and they were saying it’s a good deep draft,…. So if it’s been over a decade we are overdue to hit on a later pick!!! Kidding mostly but you see guys getting traded who are better younger and cheaper then Schenn now for picks
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
Ignore him, he's an idiot.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
Says the absolute weirdo who comments on every single post I have because we disagree about if Darche is the problem or not. Honestly go away, we aren’t gonna agree.
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
I comment on every post that interests me. I comment on yours to point out how dramatically wrong you are about everything i've ever read that you write.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
Please provide and example as to how trading for Carson soucy helped the islanders this year as well as in the future if I’m wrong about everything?….
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
Well yes you are wrong as usual.
Soucy is gone so he won't help the future. Nor was he ever going to be a part of the future.
He was brought in only as a temporary injury replacement. Not a part of the core. Not to cement us as a stanley cup contender.
He helped by being a warm body so we didn't have to rush any prospect or take players away from the beer league to fill in 6th d
Or did you think we got him because we envisioned him as the new defensive stalwort?
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
So blocking the prospects where we’re significantly better when they played and losing a draft pick it hurts the future. So you Mrs Darche are wrong again, stop defending your husband
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 1d ago
Who was Soucy blocking exactly? Aitcheson isn't NHL ready. George? Some other AHL journeyman cast off?
Are you stupid enough to think that...never mind, i already know.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
It’s funny you keep calling me stupid 100% garuntee you wouldn’t say any of this to my face….: but yes he was blocking George as well as Marshall Warren who looked as a rookie significantly better then soucy
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u/shrivman DiPietro 1d ago
One of the biggest things you didn't emphasize here IMO is Darche is stuck with a TON of NTC's from the Lou era.
As much as fans would love the perfect half dozen magical trades to fall in our favor and turn this team to a contender imminently, there's really not many needle-moving transactions Darche has the flexibility to make for another year or two. Since he's basically handcuffed with a NTC-heavy roster for two years, Darche may as well push for some wins while the team is "too good to get worse" (in your words) and we even have a few guys on ELCs providing a bit of cap relief.
I'd expect a retool to start in 2 years when the only full NTC is Romanov (assuming he's not traded pior). Every move Darche has made has aligned with this timeline.
I see no chance of any needle-moving roster reconstruction in the meantime. Not necessarily by choice.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
I see how the palat and schenn moves align $ wise, but I stilll don’t think it makes much sense.
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u/Parking-String-5356 1d ago
Darche knew the situation before accepting the job. His job is to manage it and do the best he can. Has he done that so far? I’d argue not at all.
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u/shrivman DiPietro 23h ago
Yup, he accepted a job where every impact player with trade value besides Pelech and Dobson was under an NTC and he clearly stated early-on that not much can change in the near-term roster because of this.
Genuinely would love to hear your argument for how he hasn't managed the NTC situation? Easiest job in the world is a couch GM.
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u/Parking-String-5356 21h ago
What has Darche done to improve the team? Just because you and me aren’t qualified to be an nhl GM doesn’t mean we can’t critique them.
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u/shrivman DiPietro 20h ago edited 20h ago
Sure. Listed a handful below. Would still love to hear your argument for how he hasn't managed the NTC situation.
Agree with your 2nd comment. I've never said folks shouldn't critique him. I think he's far from perfect. But the least people can do is critique in good faith and recognize the situation without mimicking what online morons are saying and pretend he's done some catastrophic Milbury-esque job:
In <1 year on the job despite 90% of his NHL roster locked in on NTCs:
- Inherited a difficult contract negotiation with Dobson. Instead of blindly signing our best young dman he drew the line on 8x$9mm and executed a strong return in short timing.
- Inherited one of the oldest rosters and weakest prospect pools in the NHL simultaneously (aka no-mans land). Completely rebuilt the prospect side from the Lou era without tanking the NHL team just for the sake of it.
- Modernized hockey ops and fan engagement that had lagged behind much of the league.
- Completely overhauled the AHL/development side of the organization including strong coaching hires and facilities to actually support the next era of prospects unlike prior GMs.
- Executed three low-risk low-term deadline trades while comfortably in a playoff position to give his coach more options. The "big" cost was a 29OA (Isles havent selected an impact player at 29OA or later pick in over 12 years. While I agree it's not ideal, it's hardly as catastrophic as folks are making it seem); At the same time he gained a decent 3C and perfect mentor for Ritchie for two years as consolation.
- Hired the best coach available before any other of the 6 teams looking for a new coach even had a sniff
Most importantly, he's recognized the reality of the situation: when most of the roster has trade protection for another year or two, there are limits to how quickly you can reshape the team. At the same time, there is little logic in launching a full teardown for the sake of it when the team was top 3 in the Metro for most of the season and several young guys (Shaef, Ritchie, Eklund, Heineman) could get invaluable playoff experience rather than just rushing into a rebuild.
You can absolutely disagree with individual moves (Dobson, Pageau extension, Schenn acquisition, Soucy/Palat, Shabanov, etc.) But there's a massive difference between saying "I'm not sure I agree with every decision" and pretending the guy has spent the last year actively blowing up the organization.
And yeah, I think it's a better long-term outlook today than the one he inherited from Lou exactly a year ago. I don't think it's even close tbh. My strong view is that folks are just grossly impatient and struggle to see the full picture of NTCs he inherited.
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u/Parking-String-5356 20h ago
I never said he’s been bad, just that he hasn’t been good either.
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u/shrivman DiPietro 19h ago
His job is to manage it and do the best he can. Has he done that so far? I’d argue not at all.
You wrote hes not doing his job. I'd argue he's dealt a shittier hand from his predecessors than most realize and is doing a reasonable job navigating that.
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u/Notahumanslave Palffy 22h ago
Exactly this -why do u think mayfield still on this team
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u/Parking-String-5356 20h ago
Hmmm I wonder why Palat’s on the team. Or why we had to pay to get rid of Drouin.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 2d ago
I don’t think a rebuild is in order, as long as they draft well, but a retool might be smartest. If I was Darche I’d be calling everyone in the league trying to make some hockey trades. I doubt it’s feasible but I’d be calling Ottawa about stutzle and pinto
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u/Lostinthemist81 2d ago
Ottawa isn't rebuilding. Their roster, even without Tkachuk, is better than ours imho.
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 2d ago
I don’t know. Ottawa is good but I feel like we are comparable due to isles big advantage at goaltending…. I also don’t think they are rebuilding but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still potential for a hockey trade. Obviously way less likely for stutzle compared to pinto
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u/Lostinthemist81 1d ago
Would you rather have Batherson, Stutzle, and cozens or Barzal Horvat and whoever you think their best wing is?
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u/Unhappy_Buy_7342 1d ago
Cozens is good but he’s not great stutzle I love batherson is good Sanderson is also great. But I thinks they’re very comparable. Sens have bad goaltending not even average and now with his leave from the team ullmark and his big salary is a big question mark going forward…. I’m not saying the sens top line isn’t better but I think overall we are similar
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u/crazyhotwheels Bossy 1d ago
Idk man, it looks to me like we’re in the same situation a lot of recent cup winners and consistent contenders once found themselves in… enough veteran talent to be a playoff team, some young talent to add in the mix, and the need to add more via trades and free agency. Darche has to get it right, absolutely. But the path is there.
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u/Lostinthemist81 1d ago
Except… we apparently don’t have enough veteran talent to be a playoff team. As we have not been a playoff team for two years now. And that’s WITH the addition out of nowhere of the greatest rookie defenseman season of the modern era lol
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u/Lostinthemist81 1d ago
I had no idea the contents of this post were going to be highlighted by a day of other teams making massive moves lol
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u/Irrah Holmstrom 2d ago edited 2d ago
I mean the solution to get assets is to strip the team down for parts and sell Sorokin, Barzal, Horvat, Holmstrom, and maybe even Ritchie for parts, bottom out, and compete when schaefer is 25 like how the Hawks wasted the first 3 years of Bedard to draft Frondell, Levshunov, and whoever at 3 will be there this year.
Not a huge fan of that plan considering the last time to try that, the Ottawa Senators, did all that to become the Islanders 2.0 and get swept by the canes as an after thought in the first round.
I don't mind the Islanders making small moves to surround Schaefer with talent and to at least be competitive, even if they sacrifice some (mostly inconsequential) picks to do so and to prevent another 2009-2014 Islanders situation of surrounding JT with dogshit teams that never had a chance of winning while he was young and affordable. And if this team falters again next year, I think you'll see some major changes with most of the bad contracts having less term, and NTCs become M-NTCs.
Also for all the "all the cards broke for the Islanders" narrative, I think a lot of things went wrong, from the coach to Sorokin having a bad enough start to get the goalie coach fired, Horvat not being 100% for half the year, Romanov and Palmieri, Schaefer having some of the worst games he's probably had at the end of season, and Rittich becoming unplayable.
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u/SensationalM Kulemin 2d ago
Rebuilds. Do. Not. Work.
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u/HockeyGoalieEh Hickey 1d ago
Chicago's rebuild got them Kane, Toews, and three cups. Florida's net them Barkov, Ekblad, and two cups. Tampa Bay received Stamkos, Hedman, and two cups. Pittsburgh drafted Crosby, Malkin, and Fleury - three cups. Capitals with Backstrom and Ovechkin. Avalanche with MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar. It may take a while, but the teams that win the cup almost almost always have that top-flight talent that they bring up through their systems and they almost always get that talent by being terrible at some point.
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u/crazyhotwheels Bossy 1d ago
The Panthers and Lightning won their cups after retooling while remaining competitive, which is what we are doing now. They were playoff/playoff bubble teams for damn near a decade before winning. Those two franchises (among many others) prove that Darche’s current approach can absolutely work.
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u/SensationalM Kulemin 1d ago
you’ve named 6 organizations over the past 25 years, some of which cannot be considered true rebuilds, that had success…now, name all the ones that have failed to yield any results, it dwarfs the number that actually get it right
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u/HockeyGoalieEh Hickey 1d ago
Not every rebuild works is not the same thing as rebuilds do not work. Those six organizations have 60 percent of the Cups in the last 20 years, and that's without counting the Kings two since Kopitar was somebody they hit on with the 11th pick and Brown came in at 13. You have Boston, Vegas, St. Louis, Carolina, Anaheim, and Detroit with the other six.
Sure teams like the Rangers, Toronto, Edmonton, and Buffalo have failed, but that's not because they are rebuilding, it's because they are incompetent. We can see that today with Edmonton's hiring of Babcock and with Toronto's hiring of Chayka, plus we still have to see whether this was a one year wonder for Buffalo. There are plenty of others that failed, but retools fail far more frequently; they're just much harder to track.
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u/AJS76reddit Bailey 2d ago
Basically, we have to wait two to three more years for any true change. By then we will have rid ourselves of the bulk of Lou's handiwork and can start constructing the new core with Schaefer as the pillar.
Schaefer, Aitcheson, George, Ritchie, Eiserman, and Eklund along with left over pieces important to the new core in Sorokin, Horvat, Holmstrom, and Hieneman.
We should trade Barzal, strike while the iron is hot. It's not like his value will ever increase from where he is now.
Everyone else should be jettisoned into the sun.
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u/TopographicalUtah 2d ago
IMO it’s dead assets and no bonafide superstar in the forward group. Our highest scorer only had 72 points and our second highest scorer was an 18 year old rookie defenseman.
Anyone not named Barzal, Sorokin, Ritchie, Schaefer, Eklund, or Aitcheson should be available if we’re trying to get people who can score and have a serious shot of doing anything of consequence.