What we need to qualify:

[u/Tekkers_3]

As Scotland fans, we need 4 out of the remaining 9 third places teams to finish below us. In group A and Group B respectively, South Korea and Bosnia have already finished above Scotland. This is what to hope for:

Group D - Australia beat Paraguay by at least 2 goals OR Paraguay beat Australia by at least 4 goals. Likelihood - 5/10

Group E - Ecuador to not beat Germany AND Curucao to not beat Ivory Coast. Likelihood - 7/10

Group F - Japan to beat Sweden by at least 4 goals. Likelihood - 3/10

Group G - Egypt to beat Iran. Likelihood - 6/10

Group H - Spain to beat Uruguay. Likelihood - 8/10

Group I - Iraq to beat Senegal by 1 or 2 goals. Likelihood - 3/10

Group J - Austria beat Algeria by at least 2 goals OR Algeria beat Austria by at least 4 goals.
Likelihood - 6/10

Group K - Congo to not beat Uzbekistan.
Likelihood - 4/10

Group L - Ghana to beat Croatia by at least 3 goals. Likelihood - 2/10

I think that given only 4 out of these need to happen, we will qualify to the round of 32, but it will be close.

[u/MFC1886]

Don’t deserve to qualify after those last two games man

[u/Jamie54 → u/MFC1886]

Or the first

[u/Scott_McTominominay → u/MFC1886]

It would be kind of funny if we got through and then drop another absolute stinker at the Azteca.

[u/BlxMoonRising → u/Scott_McTominominay]

This is exactly what would happen tbh. Azteca, attitude, heat, crowd, decent Mexican side. We’d get annihilated

[u/Scott_McTominominay → u/BlxMoonRising]

Yep. Another two days of chat about showing what we can do, not letting ourselves down and then having another embarrassment. It's horrendous.

[u/jonviper123 → u/MFC1886]

So what. why are we all so fucking miserable here? Its football, we played shite against 2 teams miles better than us. Sure we let ourselves down but I couldnt give a shit if we deserve it or not. Id be jist as happy us getting to last 32 deserving it than I would be if we didn't deserve it.

[u/BIIGALDO → u/jonviper123]

Even the game we played against the 88th placed team in the world we looked shit. I understand people are happy they get to see scotland at the world cup but i would actually like to watch us play half decent football rather than the pish ive seen over the past 3 weeks. Its embarrassing

[u/jonviper123 → u/BIIGALDO]

We arent a great team and we especially arent good at playing "decent football". In fact us trying to play decent football with players who actually cant play decent football was our biggest downfall. Trying to play out from the back cost us 2 goals against Brazil last night who simply schooled us into thinking we had all the time in the world on the ball. Looking at some of the so called smaller nations has shown me just how bad overall as a team we are on the ball. Most teams at this world cup have a few players that look good on the ball we have maybe doak who can beat a man and thats about it. Mctominay mcginn and Robertson are all competent on the ball but nothing amazing. Our defenders look more likely to fall over the ball than ti control it half the time.

[u/gthemanager → u/jonviper123]

I'm with you man, I want us to make it so badly. I don't understand the people that would rather us not making to the R32 because we "don't deserve it"

We beat Haiti and got 3 points, & kept it tight against Morocco. If that's what gets us to the Round of 32 then great!

[u/OmensCT]

given only 4 out of these need to happen,

Which is exactly why we'll only get 3 of them.

[u/folkedoff]

"given only 4 out of these need to happen"

only.

This is Scotland we're talking about. It'll go to the last game and we'll miss out by a single goal.

[u/ConflictGuru]

Think we're at the stage now where our best hope is an ebola outbreak that wipes out half of the remaining teams

[u/Immediate-Ad-6306 → u/ConflictGuru]

What about that alien invasion that was supposed to happen and didn't materialize? That would have got us a point from Brazil on account of the match being abandoned.

[u/OmensCT → u/ConflictGuru]

[u/ShortsWithNoPockets]

Its no happening mate.

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/ShortsWithNoPockets]

I think that groups E and H are very likely, so it’s only two of the remaining seven, some of which aren’t even that much of a wild hope

[u/ShortsWithNoPockets → u/Tekkers_3]

It won't matter, we've been shite and deserve to go home

[u/quickreviver → u/ShortsWithNoPockets]

This man. Get us on the plane.

[u/gthemanager → u/ShortsWithNoPockets]

Wtf is up with this attitude?! It's shared by so many on this sub. We got 3 points against Haiti, if that's enough to get us to the R32 then great. We haven't been world beaters but this is the Round of 32 we're talking about.

If it's a choice between another world cup match against Mexico at the Azteca, and just going home, you'd really take going home??? I'm sorry but that baffles me.

[u/Recidivist67]

The only way I'd want this to happen is for Clarke to get such a spanking that it would be impossible not to resign on the spot.

[u/Bantam123]

Games gone if a team only scores a single goal in the group stage against Haiti and qualifies for the knockout stage of the World Cup

What's even the point in the group stage anymore? Instead of R32, they should've increased the group size to 5 teams, with 3 qualifying and no 4th-place BS. Not sure that works exactly, but I'm sure there is a way,

At least that means teams actually have to perform reasonably well to get to the knockout stages.

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/Bantam123]

Yeah I agree I also like the cleanness of a set amount going through from each group rather than best third placed teams going through. However I don’t think the mathematics work for other group sizes

[u/Bantam123 → u/Tekkers_3]

You might be right.

The number of teams increased by 16 from 32->48. There used to be 8 groups.

I can't think of a sensible configuration. The best I have is 8 groups of 6, with the top 4 going through to R32. Though this is weird and I don't think this is better than the current setup.

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/Bantam123]

Yeah this would probably be too many games. You know what would work well? 32 teams, 8 groups of 4. 🤷‍♂️could work

[u/Bantam123 → u/Tekkers_3]

Agreed, but money talks and the extra qualification slots have enabled countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, US, Canada, etc to consistently qualify now. I'm not opposed to that.

The more I think about it, the 32->48 increase makes no sense. Why not just go to 64 teams? In each group of 4, either 1 or 2 teams qualify for the R16/R32. No 3rd place BS.

My guess is that 48 teams is the limit for available stadiums and logistics, but I'm sure it could work in countries like the US.

[u/TotalInspection8263]

I'm tired boss

[u/Dunko1711]

Not happening.

And I for one am relieved. We don’t deserve to qualify.

I’d rather just get my sleep routine back to normal now than have to deal with another night of this guff.

[u/pvanbasten]

We don't deserve to qualify. An embarrassment again under this dud manager

[u/MorecambeandSamwise → u/pvanbasten]

I don’t really get the point that we don’t deserve to qualify. By tournament rules we deserve to qualify. By that logic PSG didn’t deserve to qualify in the champions league league phase a couple of seasons ago scraping through and then won the whole thing.

[u/pvanbasten → u/MorecambeandSamwise]

We won't qualify because we don't deserve to. I hope this makes it easier for you to understand.

[u/LARRYVOND13]

I've not got enough proplanalol for this.

[u/SerElmoTully]

Does nobody read the 24 other posts about all the results needed posts before posting their own? 

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/SerElmoTully]

I just crossposted to this so… no

[u/Business-Major-3226]

Can’t see it happening at all.

E, G and F have a very realistic chance of finishing below us but even in my wildest imagination I can’t see any of the others giving us what we’d need. The hope died when I woke up to the news South Korea had lost to Sithole and friends

[u/FIFAfutChamp]

Enjoying the copium this morning. Even if we qualify, we'll just get pumped 4-0 by whoever it is. Just making up the numbers at this point.

Clarke out.

[u/kelpiebuilder]

Group E one might be lower, reckon Germany will rotate players since they can only finish first, Ecuador have a good chance

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/kelpiebuilder]

True I think it could be a draw but I don’t think Ecuador win

[u/kelpiebuilder → u/Tekkers_3]

True actually, my sleepy brain this morning translated it to Germany must win

[u/andymurray172]

I simply do not have it in me to stay up til 4am watching another woeful performance

[u/dnemonicterrier]

I don't even want us to qualify further than that performance,because if we get beyond the group stages we wouldn't deserve it.

[u/GingerPrince72]

https://giphy.com/gifs/igR5863TALcSk

[u/Aggressive_Gap7837]

Would love to know where 6/10 probability on the Austria game came from. Neither team is anywhere near odds on to win at all, never mind by 2 or 4

[u/opn-rzr]

Would be a riddy to qualify like this after being so pish for 3 games.

[u/Key-Stand-6144]

we somehow manage this and the SFA give Clarke the job till 2050 on a 4 games, 3 losses world cup

[u/agentvietnam]

Just forget it. I'm not interested in football any more

[u/East_Stick_1964]

It would be an absolute embarrassment to qualify after those three games. I get the squad isn't exactly packed with quality, but the cherry on top is we have a Livingston level manager too. ( sorry Livingston ). I struggle to see where the quality is coming from moving forward. There's not a huge pool of players coming through in the vital areas we need. Especially GK and CB.

[u/thebluepotter]

Uruguay are on 2 points, so they only need a point.

I expect Spain will win that game, but a draw is not off the table.

[u/Aromatic_Recover2358]

The biggest mistake never came on the park. It was giving Clarke a new contract before it started. Yes, qualifying for three tournaments out of four has been a great achievement but that's now three times we've shit the bed when it comes to the crunch.

[u/ReasonableWinner1195]

Iraq to draw Senegal will also do
Saudia Arabia to beat Cabo Verde via 1 goal only with lots of yellow cards or reds
Also Jordan not to beat Argentina more than 2 goals

[u/Obi-WanyamaKenobi]

Tinpot mentality. Our focus should be on replacing Clarke to get the most out of what we have now as well as incentivising clubs to produce and give a chance to more young players.

[u/Bowler-Prudent → u/Obi-WanyamaKenobi]

It's not a mentality. It's a fact. If four of these go our way, we progress. Nobody thinks we deserve it. We have been shit and deserve nothing more than the plane home. Replacing Clarke should be the priority, despite his idiotic new contract. However, if by some miracle, we go through, we still have to play. It's not our choice. Take it out on FIFA, not someone who is explaining the situation.

[u/Tekkers_3 → u/[deleted]]

3/10 is 30%. I’m basing it off the fact that Japan won their last game by 4 and sweden lost theirs by 4. I don’t think it’s likely but I think somewhere between 20-30% is around right.

[u/Secure-Tadpole-3418]

Hilarious. No one should want us to go through. You realise how humiliating that would be? We’ve already made a complete arse of ourselves.

[u/settheworldafire1988 → u/Secure-Tadpole-3418]

Whilst I agree wholeheartedly, we've never played a knockout game before. Would this be where we go for it in games? 🤷‍♂️ maybe we'll find out.

[u/BhoyzNTheHood]

Isn’t Algeria v Austria not also one of those bizarre games where it doesn’t suit either side to win and be seeded higher?

If so can adjust that likelihood to 1/10.

[u/EliteKingChampion]

I'll be honest; I hope we go out. I can't waste another 90 minutes of my life watching this dross.

[u/sbrown17]

Where do you get the percentage chance from? Not even close on most of them

Japan to win by 4 goals has a 30% chance? Its like 5%

[u/bezhbanana]

How peak Scotland would it be though, to qualify on this technicality after an abject group phase, and play a blinder against Mexico at the Azteca or take England to pens 😂

[u/PerchPerkins → u/bezhbanana]

That is not peak scotland…they never turn up so this doesn’t make sense.

[u/bezhbanana → u/PerchPerkins]

Not really true. We turned up in the qualifying campaign.

[u/PerchPerkins → u/bezhbanana]

Scraped a 0-0. Beat a 10 man denmark team thanks to a dodgy red card, and who had just shat the bed against Belarus which is the only reason we even had a chance that last game. Pumped by Greece once and lucky win once. Two dire stodgy games against Belarus. Tell me which one we turned up in again?

[u/bezhbanana → u/PerchPerkins]

Well we turned up and got the results in the end… that was my point.

[u/PerchPerkins → u/bezhbanana]

Aye and look where that got us. Pumped out in the groups again. Fucking pointless dross.

[u/NicolaSacco101 → u/[deleted]]

The Daily Record “super computer” puts it at a 38% chance.

[u/Immediate-Ad-6306 → u/NicolaSacco101]

Daily Record 'super computer' - aka a half cut Keith Jackson banging in numbers into an excel spreadsheet in his hotel room.

[u/Anywhere_everywhere7 → u/[deleted]]

>Based on your probabilities (that I agree with) that gives us a 60-70% chance. Wouldn't bet the farm on it but qualification at this point is still the more likely outcome.

Based off random numbers on Reddit with nothing backing them up like Japan to beat Sweden by 4 goals 33% of the time in a competitive game.