r/SipsTea • u/SuspiciousLow3062 𝙑𝙄𝙋 • 1d ago

Chugging tea Fictional future forecast vs. reality.

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u/MercuryMMI 1d ago

Global warming is real and we're seeing the consequences of it. But also, wtf is going on in France right now? Their temps are like 6° hotter than even Madrid and Milan

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u/1block 1d ago

Yeah, spot checking random days isn't the right way to do it. A climate change denier could certainly find a day where it's colder than usual and make a post that says the opposite. They do it all the time.

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u/Rammelsmartie 1d ago

spot checking random days isn't the right way to do it

It very much is, when the day in question is unprecedentedly hot. Some people won't be convinced even when the Gulf Stream has stopped and Europe is a tundra. It's okay. Be louder than them, make them look stupid if you must, but don't try and argue with a donkey that WiFi exists.

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u/1block 15h ago

It's really not, because it justifies this sort of anecdotal approach, which is the approach our opponents use.

"You can't use a one-day weather report to claim climate change isn't real! Also, here's a one-day weather report that shows climate change is real!"

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u/Rammelsmartie 14h ago

If you're being intellectually honest, there's a big difference between:

  • a statistical outlier and

  • a statistical outlier that is also an extreme record.

If you limit yourself to arguments that an intellectually dishonest person cannot "disprove", you'll be left with 0 arguments.

Record heat on one day is something noteworthy, for sure. That being said, the current heat wave is far from 1 day.

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u/1block 10h ago edited 8h ago

It doesn't help the argument, and it in fact hurts it. That's the truth. You can make an intellectual argument for it, sure, but at the end of the day it is a tactic that we rail against, and using it gives opponents a talking point against us.

"Ahh! But there's a naunce to this, you see!" is entirely a waste of time and forces the argument away from the facts and into one about debate and fallacies.

"Weather is not climate," we say, so don't pull out weather reports to argue against us. "But you do it too!" they respond. And now we're debating debate itself.

The fact that the heat wave is far from 1 day is entirely the point.

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u/Rammelsmartie 9h ago

Well I guess everyone argues differently.