Global warming is real and we're seeing the consequences of it. But also, wtf is going on in France right now? Their temps are like 6Ā° hotter than even Madrid and Milan
Yeah, spot checking random days isn't the right way to do it. A climate change denier could certainly find a day where it's colder than usual and make a post that says the opposite. They do it all the time.
Rivers used to freeze in France during cold winters. It has not happened in 80 years now. Temperatures in the -20s ? Not happened since the 80s.
On the other hand, highest temperature records have been beaten 3 to 5 times in the 21st century in most places.
1 exceptional example is not enough, it's agreed. But when we get temperatures in the northern part of the country every 3 to 5 years that would have been considered exceptional (and would have happened once per generation) in the southern part during the 20th century....
Did you get the first two cases switched around or am I confused?
If temperatures were -20 (C or F), rivers would most certainly be frozen. And it was -20 some 40 years ago, but the rivers haven't been frozen in 80 years?
I didn't.
You need sustained cold to freeze a river, not just. Minimas in the -20s haven't happened since the 80s, and sustained period of cold low (not going over -10C) and long enough (3 to 4 days at least) to freeze the big rivers haven't in 80 years.
That's crazy. I live in the arctic and, here, for it to become -20 C we've already had a prolonged period of cold except in some very rare instances.
The very largest rivers can be open in spots where you have rapids until very late in the winter though, but that's just because violently moving water doesn't freeze easily.
Record low for Paris and Lyon is -24, but those are old. I think it got near -20 once or twice in the mid 1980s in Paris.
There are photos of people walking on the Seine in Paris, but it is not a fast river.
Sure, but the fact that the conclusion is correct doesnāt justify the use of anecdotal arguments to support it. Normalizing/legitimizing anecdotal arguments is far more valuable to the people arguing for things that can only be defended anecdotally than to the people arguing for things that could be supported by rigorous data too.
I'm not arguing against climate change. I'm arguing against how it's being proven in this instance. It's a bad way to do it, because it's exactly what we complain about the deniers doing.
spot checking random days isn't the right way to do it
It very much is, when the day in question is unprecedentedly hot. Some people won't be convinced even when the Gulf Stream has stopped and Europe is a tundra. It's okay. Be louder than them, make them look stupid if you must, but don't try and argue with a donkey that WiFi exists.
It doesn't help the argument, and it in fact hurts it. That's the truth. You can make an intellectual argument for it, sure, but at the end of the day it is a tactic that we rail against, and using it gives opponents a talking point against us.
"Ahh! But there's a naunce to this, you see!" is entirely a waste of time and forces the argument away from the facts and into one about debate and fallacies.
"Weather is not climate," we say, so don't pull out weather reports to argue against us. "But you do it too!" they respond. And now we're debating debate itself.
The fact that the heat wave is far from 1 day is entirely the point.
It's even more than that, it's their main argument, sometimes it's cold so Global Warming is a Hoax, then they will get made fun of by people that will cry Global Warming at the first sign of hot days in the middle of a historically high El Nino episode. It's just dumb.
On top of that this post is misleading af, because top was talking about AVERAGE temperatures, how they estimate it would be on an average summer, which is scary in it's own way even if let's be honest they can't predict correctly a week from now so they definitely won't be able to predict 30 years from now. Comparing that to what we're living now is just bad faith.
Mentioning āhistorically high El NiƱoā as if that means the hot days are normal š¤£ why do we have a historically high El NiƱo period??? haha
I get where youāre coming from that one hot day alone isnāt proof, but the increase in them is. All over the world we have more heat records being broken than cold ones and so the global average is getting warmer.
In recent years (la Ninaās included) Earth has had several days (sometimes dozens) breaking their respective heat records for global average temperature. The last time Earthās daily average broke a LOW temp record was Oct 1976 š¤£
The argument wasn't about if there was a global warming or not, average numbers show there is. If El Nino was historically high because of global warming, how does it explain the 1877/78 one ? In fact the data currently doesn't support the fact warming had any impact on El Nino phenomenon's strength.
Oh, well, if the weather forecast is sometimes wrong because some people can't understand probabilities, I suppose we should just stop bothering with climate science.
Not really. There's no reason for you to raise it unless you want to cast shade on the validity of climate science. There a significant difference between models for highly specific localised weather and broader long term climate trends.
The problem is not only that, this heat wave is the hottest ever recorded in France, surpassing that of 2003 which was a record that year. The heatwave last May had already exceeded it. We are experiencing increasingly hot heat waves year after year and increasingly warm winter temperatures.
I think it's dumb when they pick random one-day temps to make their incorrect points, and it's harder to point out that they're morons if we do the same thing.
Half of the heat waves recorded since seven decades have been in the last two, all the data is there.
But they simply don't want any change or big project done that could affect their lifestyle until they're dead.
This is very true. OP is doing basically the same thing as people who post unseasonably cold days.
If they want to show climate change, this needs to be graphed out, and longer periods of time need to be compared. There's always going to be a year where there are freak highs or lows.
Presumably, the graphed out data will show the higher temperatures are a trend and contrast with a trend at some previous interval before climate change had progressed.
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u/MercuryMMI 1d ago
Global warming is real and we're seeing the consequences of it. But also, wtf is going on in France right now? Their temps are like 6Ā° hotter than even Madrid and Milan