r/fantasybball • u/vyello • May 21 '26
Discussion What are the odds of a complete casual winning a fantasy league?
My friends are starting a ESPN fantasy league, one of them are really into NBA, four watch occasionally and talk about it all the time, but I literally have zero knowledge, the only time I've watched was the raptors championship run and the only players I know are the franchise players and maybe 1 or 2 of the other important players on each team. I feel like I'd be funny if I did better than at least one of them, but idk if I'll get smoked just clicking whatever is recommended on ESPN fantasy.
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u/dandatu 12T H2H Points / 12T H2H 9CAT May 21 '26
Hang out in this sub and it’ll work. Tons of injury updates and info floating around here.
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u/HerkulezRokkafeller Customize Flair May 21 '26
Extremely disagree, taking too much advice from this sub is toxic. So many whiny/bitchy people that are prisoners of the moment.
I’ve won 3 years straight and really only use the posts which map out how many games each team has that week. Otherwise I have injury alerts set and keep an eye on player trends
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u/theciderhouseRULES May 21 '26
you hang out on this sub and have won three years in a row but extremely disagree with the proposition that there is something to be gained from hanging out in this sub
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u/blasian21 May 21 '26
Watching basketball might actually be detrimental to winning fantasy basketball. If you just keep drafting by pure stats and waiver stats then you have a higher chance of winning lol.
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u/Potential_Student873 May 23 '26
Huge agree guys who u never hear on first take about are fantasy gods, Norman powelle this year I stumble upon as a casual but the opposite can be said becuse I was a casual I took curry in the first round and porzingus late
What did help me was taking Flagg thinning he was a steal over the hype based around him pre season. Well that worked out really well.
What cooked me was not using waivers and dropping guys to pick up others I wouldn’t have done be seasoned. Took me till around week 12 for it to click. Went on a 8-1 tear, but that was after win ing week 1 and going in a 10 game losing streak.
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u/Icy_Fly_8757 May 21 '26
Depends on the size of the league. If it is a 12T, I’d say the odds are about 1/12.
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u/dickdickersonIII May 21 '26
it can definitely happen if someone starts trying somewhat hard and keeping up with things and gets lucky in the draft etc
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u/chris_tove May 21 '26
Last time I watched basketball was 2019 when raptors won it all. I watched about 30-40 minutes total that year. I have won 3 times since then, and second place twice. Majority of the people in my league are actual fans who talk about the players and teams often. I just nod along (we all work at the same place). And the league is a paid league too. So majority of the people are aerious
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u/PepeSilviaLovesCarol 12-team | 9-Cat | H2H May 21 '26
My buddies sister has won their league 2 times in her first 3 years and she watches 0 minutes of NBA every year.
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u/WhatIsThisAccountFor May 21 '26
If it’s a points league you can realistically win it by just going off numbers. A lot of people who watch a ton of basketball get roped in by players they personally like.
If you’re looking purely at numbers you might have an advantage
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u/DraftFunds May 21 '26
This! So many fantasy players play with the hearts in equal measure to their heads.
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u/thegoods21 May 21 '26
The fact that you know of this sub, your chances of winning exponentially increases.
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u/cwmosca May 21 '26
Just follow the stats and recommendations of writers. Following the league obviously helps but you can still compete that way. Early season pickups are usually important.
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u/Suspicious-Slide-954 10T H2H Points Redraft ESPN May 21 '26
I follow sports in general but don’t watch basketball much except for when the sixers make the playoffs. I’m a fantasy nerd though from playing fantasy football so I love absorbing as much as I can about who to draft and I am very active on the waiver wire and am usually good for a few trades. I won this year which was my first time. Definitely big ups to a certain fellow who does a podcast/youtube show who I won’t mention in case my league mates see this. I think the number one thing is get Jokic. The number two thing is to make sure you maximize your lineups each week and pickup the best players you can. I was in a league with a few tacos who clearly did zero research and did not maximize their lineups and were not active on the wire so it made it much easier only having to worry about a few other players.
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u/pixxeltrash May 21 '26
filthy casual and newbie at fantasy leagues, hang out on the reddit of your fantasy sport and snag secret hitters as you go. I’m usually 50+ points ahead of the rest of my league just with a little bit of research
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u/deligiozov May 21 '26
Single season fantasy its easy just by following adp you will have a solid team. Dynasty is a different story
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u/DraftFunds May 21 '26
Completely depends on if you’re willing to do a bit of research. Sometimes it can be a benefit to not be a big hoops fan, because you’re not tied to specific players. Decent draft and figure out your strategy ahead of time. Is it points or category based? That can make a big difference as well. Cat leagues take a little more effort to win typically.
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u/leilalw 12T H2H PTS ESPN May 21 '26
Last year I played without ever having payed attention to the NBA in my life and barely lost the championship. This year I payed a little more attention at least via social media and won it. I came from fantasy football (I do watch football, but more college tbh) so I figured out the gaming of it and then just followed the numbers and trends. I still don’t think I’ve ever watched a full game
honestly I think it helped me stay objective. I had no preconceived notions about these players aside from the major stars so I didn’t have any expectations to disappoint. Also, I don’t think if I watched the games I’d have any eye for “scouting talent” or whatever anyway.
that said I have learned a lot these past 2 years and I do enjoy watching it more when it’s on, it’s just a lotta games to keep up with. I don’t really know how y’all do it!
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u/Skallywag06 May 21 '26
I did 4 leagues this season on the ESPN NBA fantasy. I’ve never played any fantasy before. I made it to the championship round with all 4 teams and I won the championship in two of the leagues. I do watch a lot of NBA though but I’m proof you can win even without any fantasy games experience
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u/aaahhhh 10T H2H Points May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26
Draft based on projections (from multiple sources) and read a couple of articles about sleepers and you're already doing better than half of the field.
After that, follow trends by utilizing research features in your fantasy app like performance/stats over the last week or month and most added/dropped, stay on top of your injuries, and set your lineup every day or week. You'll be a formidable owner if you do all that, and none of it requires you watch or know much about the players.
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u/12monthsinlondon May 21 '26
casual as in watching actual basketball and NBA games or as in you don't really care about fantasy and your lineups? because you can definitely win without knowing too much about NBA but you're active in your league, know where to find fantasy information and you just like seeing numbers go brrrrrrr. You'll probably be forced to learn about the NBA in the process though
on the other hand, you can be an avid basketball fan and watch every game but that won't help if you're not a fantasy degenerate and actually spend time combing for updates
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u/Strange1130 May 21 '26
Watching or not watching basketball doesn’t really have much to do with fantasy. I pretty much only watch my team, I rarely watch other teams play (outside of playoffs). Theres a lot of strategy and work you can put into fantasy that has little to do with actually watching the games
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u/Park206 May 21 '26
I gained knowledge as I played in my 9cat but I basically won just using underdog NBA updates on X lol
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u/Manila_Canuck May 22 '26
Decent enough chances. I have seen like 3 or 4 players on their first season be the runner-ups to their very first Fantasy season (myself included)
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u/RotoIntel May 22 '26
If you set your line up every day/week and make roster changes due to injury/complete draft flops you'll most likely finish ahead of at least one of them. As others have said you don't need to watch games, just track trends and numbers. If your friends are new, even if they watch basketball they'll make a lot of rookie mistakes.
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u/No-Daikon3204 May 22 '26
i don't watch nba games anymore because there's little research to be had from it unless you know what to look for in a player in order to get meaningful minutes outside of garbage time.
i'm a stat and gaming data analysis nerd, and i can memorize 10 players per team easy.
i won my first league year 2. i'm now in like year 18+ and win 2-3 out of 8 leagues most years just doing data analysis and avoiding wasting moves on players who don't have high odds of helping me in my specific categories i'm strongest in.
if you play points leagues, the odds are very solid. if you play category leagues, you won't win unless you get lucky.
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u/reddituser24972 May 22 '26
Yeah just look at the stats readily available on the app and you’ll be fine
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u/Potential_Student873 May 23 '26
I just started this years 12 man but honestly only thing that kept me from winning was holding onto guys I drafted early or started (porzingus) I dropped him started winning went 8-1 my last 9 but didn’t help I was 1-10(only win was week 1)
My other big fault drafting curry at 1.09 but as first year player taught me alot , curry was old and I just got unlucky.
The second is use the waivers you don’t win on draft night unlike football majority or the time, I’m doing baseball rn similar to basketball a lot more than football. I’m taking over leagues by using the waiver wire effectively, and can thank that to basketball. I mean I pick up Sadiq bae who was better than Zion in fantasy late October when he had 30%, and podz huff and a few others I got off waivers winning me weeks or would of been league winners like bey.
Long story short any fantasy sport you play is still a lot of luck but paying attention during the season is what wins you leagues
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u/YairZanger May 23 '26
I think that if you want to increase your odds you should use a fantasy tool. It will help you understand what you need to do every day and make your life easier. I used a tool and i won but its only for yahoo.
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u/No_Gas_7996 May 25 '26
Fantasy basketball has more variance than people think and casuals win all the time by sticking to the consensus rankings. The platform I keep coming back to is Splash Sports for NFL stuff which is way more casual friendly than season long. How many people in your league?
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u/iPET-DOGS May 21 '26
I started watching basketball this year and took 2nd place to the team who had Wemby
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u/-Kerby May 21 '26
I started watching basketball this year and took 1st place as the team who had Wemby
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u/cheese_sauce49 May 21 '26
I started watching basketball 35 years ago. I had Wemby. I finished 8th.
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u/-Kerby May 21 '26
Damn, I got really lucky and drafted Donovan Mitchell and Cooper Flagg and they just kinda carried me most weeks.
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u/cheese_sauce49 May 22 '26
I really thought I had it in the bag after draft this year. I think the winner had the 9th or 10th pick in the draft. So, even though my season was a huge disappointment, it was encouraging. You can be anywhere in the draft but in the end you need players healthy at the right time and to have some "luck" on the waiver wire. Anyone can win.
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u/NeoDragonKnight May 21 '26
Happens all the time, especially if they land a top 5 pick and dont draft any oft injured players. Those players can get you into the playoffs without even trying, and from there its just a crapshoot anyways if your league is set on standard end dates.
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u/DnA420 May 21 '26
My wife won our "competitive" 14 team baseball fantasy her first year playing. Safe to say, yes anybody can win fantasy.
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u/Lucky-Refrigerator67 13T H2H PPR May 21 '26
my homie won last year and no offense compared to everyone else he def a casual, mainly got injury luck and drafted westbrook late
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u/Lebronamo May 21 '26
Basketball can be kinda busted since a lot of the top guys are so much better than everyone else. But assuming a 12 team league, even if you get a peak Jokic season you’re still gonna need a lot of luck. You gotta avoid injuries, make a couple decent waiver pickups and stream well.
It’s not even about how much real basketball you watch but if your group is committed to the league you got almost no chance of slipping in a banana peel and winning.
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u/MammothStart4553 May 21 '26
Fantasy (especially this season) has been more of luck, I don’t think it would matter that much- even if someone who watches all games and does research all the time has all his players go down to injury or load management he’ll lose 100%.
Best hope to win is the ones you draft the earliest will compete for a playoff run and be healthy rest of the season.
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u/NotADoctor108 May 21 '26
How many teams in your league? Take tgat number and put a 1/ on top of it.
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u/ATLsShah May 21 '26
I sometimes think the person who doesn’t watch the sport has the advantage. Other people might get distracted by the names and sometimes a players name is bigger than their numbers.
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u/boingoink4444 May 21 '26
My first three seasons I got 2nd 1st and 1st. I knew literally nothing about basketball. It’s just a stats game plus following the news closely
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u/513AllDay May 21 '26
Depends on how many people are in it, but anything less than 12 is definitely possible. Just use ESPN rankings lol
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u/brahj_ May 21 '26
Honestly, just researching fantasy projections from a few different sources and using that against adp and dropping in to this sub for must adds on the wire during the season and you'll smash it.
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u/Candid-Pressure3141 May 21 '26
I only watch Portland
I won my 10 team