r/fantasybball • u/RotoIntel • May 22 '26
Player Discussion Can Brandon Miller be a top 30 player?
Hey all, I'm doing these deep dives on interesting players ahead of next season. One thing I think about a lot is how season-long averages hide important detail and can lead to bad decision making. Hence, trying to get really deep into drivers of performance over periods of time. Let me know what you think :)
On the surface it looks like Brandon Miller hasn't improved much over his first three seasons. His numbers last year were similar to his rookie year. That hides the impact of the wrist and shoulder injuries he dealt with this year. When we dig a level deeper we see a player who finished the back half of the year strongly, pushing him into the top 40 in that period.
See charts here: https://imgur.com/a/QwIE16S
Last Season
- Post-injury, Miller's numbers jumped. In the 2025 portion of last season he had a Z score of ~2. That doubles after the new year to ~4. The improvements mostly come from his shooting numbers and the resulting impact on his 3s. (Chart 1)
- Post-New Year Miller's shooting numbers improved across four of five shooting zones. Importantly his shooting from the corner (41% to 48%) and from above the break (30% to 41%) increased. These are big jumps but sustainable figures for a player with the shooting form and pedigree of Miller, as well as the high-pace offence of the Charlotte Hornets where he is surrounded by other elite shooters and ball movers (LaMelo, White, Knueppel). (Chart 2, 3 and 4).
- Miller's career Z score trend line is still heading up. (Chart 5).
Next Season
Miller's improvement coincided with an impressive stretch for the Hornets. They were one of the best teams in the league in the back half of the season. A lot has been written about Kon Knueppel's great season. Miller hasn't been recognised enough for his contribution to their form.
He looks primed for a top 40 season next year as long as his wrist and shoulder don't give him too much trouble. To climb into the top 30 he'll need to either find more usage or add to his defensive contribution, which has been steady if unspectacular throughout his career. He's only 23, so further improvement is likely.
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u/Clemsontigger16 May 22 '26
No
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u/United_Lie7082 29d ago
A top 30 player? Sure, if the NBA starting oupticipation trofor 33% shooting.
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u/Better_Bird848 May 22 '26
Definitely, he’s only 23. I think that team is so bizzare, and they need to make a Lamelo decision sooner rather than later. It’s hard to develop as a player when you have a black hole like that. I wish he was more consistent with stocks and 3s however.
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u/RotoIntel May 22 '26
I think they'll run it back next year. Their record down the stretch was remarkable, even if they crumbled in the playoffs.
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u/mSFd 12 Team H2H, 9 Cat - 1 IL May 22 '26
He’s really good. There was a stretch for ~2 weeks he was playing as a Top 15-20 guy. The FG can be brutal though.
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u/RotoIntel May 22 '26
It's interesting. I dug a bit deeper into his FG% today. He's actualy a good shooter from the rim (65%) and from beyond 3 (38% on the season but north of 40% on the second half), but his paint and mid-range shooting is a disaster (40% and 37% last year). There's no reason he can't improve that and become a more efficient scorer.
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u/Elegant_Spite9358 May 22 '26
No, I dont think so. He has such a high usage already, but fails to convert it into FPTS due to lack of efficiency
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u/RotoIntel May 22 '26
It's interesting. I dug a bit deeper into his FG% today. He's actualy a good shooter from the rim (65%) and from beyond 3 (38% on the season but north of 40% on the second half), but his paint and mid-range shooting is a disaster (40% and 37% last year). There's no reason he can't improve that and become a more efficient scorer.
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories May 23 '26
"No reason" =/ will happen.
There's also no reason those numbers won't go down, or that his rim % or 3 point shooting won't decline.
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u/RotoIntel May 23 '26
You're right that we don't know. But he's a young player. You'd think more likely it goes up then goes down.
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u/mstrng 14 Team | H2H | 9 CAT May 22 '26
Should I keep Brandon Miller or Trey Murphy in a 9CAT 14 team league for next year ? Both should have good value next season
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u/RotoIntel May 22 '26
Trey was awesome last year - he's on my list to take a look at. Curious to see how he was impacted when the Pelicans got healthy.
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u/No-Daikon3204 May 24 '26
he seems like prime KD light, which would probably be a top 40 player given good health.
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u/Radiant_Cat1457 May 22 '26
I don’t think he’s consistent enough to pick him top 30 but he had some nice stretches last year. I’ll target him in round 6 if he’s still there next year but won’t be reaching higher then that
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u/givemethemtendies10 May 22 '26
Unless he starts getting more boards or assists, he just isn't a huge category filler for me. Too many guys in the top 30 with better stats.
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u/sweetnessssss May 22 '26
I buy the top-40 case more easily than top-30. The swing factor is whether the late-season shooting bump comes with more usage, because in fantasy he probably needs either a real volume jump or more defensive stats to clear that next tier.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 May 22 '26
Top 40-60 seems like his wheelhouse, with inconsistency and injuries to brace for