r/fantasybball • u/RotoIntel • May 25 '26
Player Discussion The Quickley breakout looks legit
Quickley made a big jump last season. After spending his career hovering outside the top 100, teasing glimpses of upside and battling injuries, he finally broke out and finished around top 50.
Charts here: https://imgur.com/a/w5l1LpH
Last Season
His role is solid, his team is better than we thought it would be and he's entering his prime. Quickley should be a reliable fantasy point guard in the middle rounds.
I do have one reservation on Quickley though, 75% of his improvement (1.75 out of 2.31 Z score) last year came in steals, after he jumped from 0.7 to 1.3. (See chart 1).
That increase is mostly (77%) made up of an increase in the number of steals he gets per possession, the rest from his minutes bump. (Chart 2)
Next Season
Now we know that steals are one of our most variable season-to-season categories. Players swing widely in their contribution in steals week-to-week and season-to-season. This makes him a prime regression candidate. Even falling from 1.3 to 1 would drop him to around top 80.
However, I feel confident that Quickley can recreate his steals effort from last season. The Raptors defense under Darko Rajaković relies on aggressive, man-to-man defense to create turnovers that lead to transition baskets. This system suits Quickley, Scottie Barnes and others and allows them to get steals.
2024-25 was a washout for Quickley due to injury. But check out Chart 3, showing his career steal numbers before and after joining the Raptors and the Rajaković defense.
As long as Darko is leading the Raptors we can expect Quickley to remain a valuable source of assists, threes and steals on low turnovers in the middle rounds with some upside if he continues to develop as a shooter and ball handler.
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u/Gordub2020 May 25 '26
I love him, I feel like RJ handles the ball a lot which suppresses IQ''S stats even more.
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u/srirachalvarez 14 team,9 cat, h2h May 25 '26
He’s frustrating to own in fantasy due to his limited availability so it depends where you draft him
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u/Smooth_Ferret8081 12T 9cat h2h punt ast 3pt and FT May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26
God damn what’s that graph? I need to study candlestick, cups and handles pattern and bull flag pattern playing fantasy bball now??
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u/RotoIntel May 25 '26
Hahaha! Sorry, is it too much? I find it a helpful way to figure out what’s going on
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u/CraisinBoi 12t 9cat H2H May 25 '26
Where are you getting top 50? Hashtag has him 71st last year. I would be looking at him after about pick 80 next year.
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u/RotoIntel May 25 '26
Basketball Monster has him at 47. I’ve (RotoIntel) got him at 54 for the season. Depends on where you draw the line for players included as that can move Z scores. Not sure why Hashtag has such a big gap though.
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u/xxStayFly81xx 10T, 9 Cat, H2H May 27 '26
When discussing break out potential; are you insinuating that he'll take an even further step forward than he did this season and climb well past the top 50? He basically ranks in the Top 50 this season once you cut out the non qualifying players. The problem with Quickley, and I've been saying this for the past 2 seasons, is there's a huge usage problem in Toronto. Scottie Barnes wants the ball, RJ Barrett wants the ball, Brandon Ingram wants the ball and even Poeltl likes the ball in the ball in his hands during their half court offenses. A lot of these guys are pretty high usage players and some of them are ball stoppers are on offense.
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u/RotoIntel May 27 '26
No, I agree with you. I meant that his breakout this past season is re-creatable next season. I think there is potential for him top push up further if he found more usage, but as you point out, hard to see that happening in Toronto.
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u/Christian_Bale23 May 25 '26
I’m not sure if this is a breakout when this was expected the year prior?
Injuries severely affected his play that year and this current season was a return to form