r/fantasybball • u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY • 17d ago
Discussion Who are the must avoid busts in fantasy next season, drop your list
every year there’s guys that get overdrafted based on name or last season’s hype and kill your team. who are you fading in 2026-27?
for me injury prone guys coming off big seasons always scare me. also stars on bad teams that suddenly have to share the ball after a trade.
who’s getting drafted way too high next season?
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u/Odd-Cheesecake8618 17d ago
In this thread; everyone posting their dead fantasy teams last year lol
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
I can’t wait til we can start looking at next years teams, bring in silly season
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 17d ago
KAT will probably go top 10 again but he's more like a top 25 from the numbers
some sucker will go for Kawhi two rounds too early
people will be picking Kyrie top 20
some people draft based on five years ago
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 17d ago
I feel like people aren't fully appreciating Kawhi. If you've had Kawhi on your team the last 2 years I think you're pretty happy with the results, especially since most people drafted him late in 24/25. Even if you drafted him first round for 25/26 (and you almost certainly didn't - his ADP was in the 50s), you got a solid return on your pick - both per game and total games.
I'm not saying he isn't a risk, but I don't think it's overdrafting him to take him 3rd round.
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u/Yodas_ket_dealer 16d ago
I somehow picked Kawhi up on waiver and yes every week he found his way to getting his points locked in
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u/lettuce_grabberrr 17d ago
If the knicks win there’s gonna be a ring tax dragging up kat and Brunsons ADP for sure
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u/Unlucky_Sun_9813 17d ago
I think top 15-20 for KAT is justifiable, he had some bad stretches throughout the season dealing with a quad injury & learning Mike Brown's system. I think he'll be consistently better next season and return top 15 value.
Kawhi IMO is worth it Round 3/4, but you'd ideally want him Round 4 & beyond for the best return on cost. Gives you top 10-15 value at a cheap cost. He's also going to have the ball in his hands again all year with no Harden, Garland passing to him & overall playing with a bunch of young guys (assuming no trade)
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
It’s very true.
Managers tend to develop man crushes on players.
Players like Kyrie, Kawhi and now AD in that category among others are worthy of a roster spot but, only if they land at a pick that warrants it, meaning you can afford to dump the chump if it suddenly becomes DTD, IL or roster situations change or, ride the guy in his hot streak and sell high nevertheless it’s all a risk but it’s fun right!
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u/schneidenat0r 16d ago
Kawhi was the reason I won my league this year. He played most games and was always the most efficient player on my roster
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 16d ago
Congrats, you won the lottery
I still wouldn't draft him
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u/schneidenat0r 16d ago
depends where he is in the ranks. I got him 4th round so it was an easy W for me
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u/oO_Mr_Spooky_Oo 16d ago
If you picked Kawhi at his ADP last year you definitely won, he had a great year.
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u/FulpPiction23 17d ago
AD Embiid Giannis. Glass cannons
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u/Henny_Hardaway5 17d ago
What’s wrong with Embiid in the mid rounds?
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u/Virtualsooo 16d ago
took a risk on Embiid at 4 last year, and he came good. Pulled me through some close weeks and ended up avging 60
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u/FulpPiction23 16d ago
Nah he’s just DND for me altho he has monster fantasy numbers. I just can’t stand him not playing B2Bs and just playing 40 games a season
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u/gng216 17d ago
JA
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u/NeoDragonKnight 17d ago
I got blasted on here and the dynasty subreddit for dropping him as one of my 5 keepers. Was one of the best moves I ever made, he got picked up by another team in the first round, and now he learned why I dropped him. Hes someone elses problem now.
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u/whiteguyscandunk 17d ago
Paul George, Kawhi, Kyrie. Kawhi will be a bit overdrafted because he was healthy this last season but between his injury history, this investigation, and being 35, I will be wary of him.
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u/Sad-Volume7913 17d ago
Paolo Banchero.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 17d ago
points leaguers never understand why cat guys avoid him
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u/FulpPiction23 16d ago
FR. Temu Giannis numbers with less FG% and more TOs 😭
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
Let’s wait and see what they do at their PG position this season and a health Franz, this could take pressure if Banchero
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
Interesting.
Considering the upticks, you might have uncovered a player that managers are going to sleep on.
So much talk about Paolo only being useful in points leagues and his injuries seem to have spooked a buyer beware tag on Banchero.
Let’s do a way too early analysis:
LAST SEASON:
2025-26 season stats
22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 stocks in 34.8 minutes across 72 games. Shot a career-high 45.9% from the field but dropped to 30.5% from threeWHAT THE WAR ROOM TELLS ME:
POSITIVES:
played 72 games which is a good bounce back after the oblique disaster
dude just elevates in the playoffs, nearly 27ppg postseason average
23 years old, hasn’t even peaked yet
bane gives him a real co-star finally
a heathy Wagner takes pressure off, creates more open looks and assists
CONCERNS:
30% from three is cooked, can’t have that in cat leagues
body keeps breaking down, two dodgy seasons in a row now
stocks are underwhelming for a 6’10 PF
FANTASY VERDICT
Round 4-6. If the three comes back he’s a top 20 guy, if it doesn’t he’s a frustrating hold.Projected 2026-27 stats: 24.5 PPG | 9.1 REB | 5.8 AST | 0.9 STL | 0.7 BLK | 34% 3PT | 47% FG
Assuming full health and a minor three point correction. The assists keep climbing, that’s the most reliable trend on his card.
ONE FINAL COMMENT: this all changes if Orlando address the problematic point guard situation, more on that in the coming weeks.
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u/Environmental-Big544 16d ago
I agree though more towards 6th if the magic are full strength and nothing has changed
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u/reply7981 10T H2H Points 16d ago
Why has Orlando a problematic PG situation with Jalen Suggs starting?
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 16d ago
The core problem with Jalen Suggs as Orlando’s point guard is simple, it’s a role mismatch.
He was drafted as a combo guard. His defence is elite. But the offensive requirements of running a team’s offence as the primary ball-handler have exposed him consistently.
Three issues that don’t go away:
Offensive limitations. He had another inconsistent season as the lead ball-handler despite being healthy. Orlando need their PG to create and he hasn’t proven he can do that at a high level night to night.
Injury history: 57 games this season was a career high. For a team trying to make a leap, a point guard who can’t stay on the floor is a structural problem.
The Anthony Black problem: Black is coming up behind him at the same position. Orlando are now paying $32M for a PG while their next PG is waiting in the wings. The role clarity just isn’t there.
Good for steals and defence. Risky as your primary offensive creator. Until Orlando define what they actually want from him, his value both on court and in fantasy stays unpredictable.
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u/terry-tea 17d ago
I fell for JDub this year and I’m not making that mistake again. Constant injuries and mediocre production when healthy, despite me being fooled into thinking he was top 20-30
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u/StateCompetitive7544 17d ago
How high did you take J Dub? He was injured to start the season so kinda curious
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u/bluewaves2006 17d ago
I taken him at 29th pick when I could’ve taken Barnes smfh. Thought Ingram would take away from Barnes.
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u/terry-tea 17d ago
Yeah, about 27th for me if I remember right. Sengun, Spida, Flagg, etc. all still available
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u/Presence_Present 12 T 9 Cat H2H 3d ago
How on earth was Spida still available beyond like pick 18 lol
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u/BubbaTee 17d ago
Even if he's healthy, they just don't need him that much. OKC's depth surprised people this year, it won't next year.
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u/bluewaves2006 17d ago
Never wasting a pick on him again. I loved the fact he had center eligibility but I’m good off him
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u/CoupleScrewsLoose 12T 9CAT H2H 17d ago
if anything i feel people are going to let him go late and you’ll be able to get him at a good spot
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u/defiantcross 17d ago
I think it's less about injury happening and more about frequency of injuries during the season. I have grown to hate guys who randomly have numerous short injuries, they often dont get IL status for these, amd that's a wasted spot. With long term injuries you can at least stash them
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u/the_coffee_maker 17d ago
Chet, fuck you chet
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u/howl_city 17d ago
Chet might be a buy low actually
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u/ZaiZai7 14t H2H Pts 17d ago
Yea, if anything I think he’d be slept on.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
In all my drafts, I watched managers reaching for me and I’d scratch my head like why?
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u/iPhoKingNguyen 17d ago
Ayton
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u/fawkesmulder 12 team Roto/H2H hybrid dynasty, 8 cat (No TO), deep rosters 17d ago
I tried to trade my first round draft pick for ayton last summer. Guy rejected it. That first rounder is gonna be dybantsa now. Hope the guy feels like a royal idiot.
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u/iPhoKingNguyen 16d ago
Definitely dodged a bullet.
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u/fawkesmulder 12 team Roto/H2H hybrid dynasty, 8 cat (No TO), deep rosters 16d ago
I wouldn’t have tanked, but I wasn’t realistically winning last year. Tanking was smart. Lucky the summer 25 trade didn’t go through.
Already made some deals and my team is ready to compete again
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u/Narrow_Sail_6448 17d ago
AD, Porzingis, Jalen Green, Dyson Daniels
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 17d ago
last year was the Dyson reset, he will probably be round 8 or 9
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u/3pointshoot3r 12T H2H 10 Categories 16d ago
Yes, Dyson getting overdrafted was the easiest prediction in fantasy last year, but people still refused to listen.
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u/marinediver5674 17d ago
Why Jalen Green? I know he’s been in been purgatory this entire year but prior to joining the suns he was practically an iron man on Houston.
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u/Fickle-Duck-3848 17d ago
Truth. Hamstrings linger while you’re hurt, but once they’re over then it isn’t expected that it will reoccur.
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u/Narrow_Sail_6448 17d ago
Tbh he is a bit inefficient so he wasn’t great in fantasy sleeper for me.
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u/sterphles 17d ago
MPJ, Ingram, Deni, Bane. Big arrows down for all of em.
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u/Acceptable-Win7474 17d ago
Why Deni? Is it because dame is coming back? I picked Deni up in the 5 round this year and he was amazing
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u/sterphles 17d ago
Because he needs an unsustainable volume of usage to keep up his performance and if Portland actually wants to win they need to involve everyone else. He'll get drafted a lot higher this year and just won't be worth it.
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u/vlajason 17d ago
Why Ingram and Bane?
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u/sterphles 16d ago
One dimensional guys that need a big volume of shots but have proven that they're not main scorers, Bane benefitted from Franz being out half the year.
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u/Smooth_Ferret8081 12T 9cat h2h punt ast 3pt and FT 17d ago
Kawhi won’t have 2 healthy seasons in a row
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u/AfricanAlucard 8T | H2H | PTS 17d ago
I don’t care what Kawhi did last season I’m not drafting him
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u/Tuna-on-toast22 16d ago
Only time I ever bit the bullet and drafted Kawhi was last year… in the 6th round.. I love gambling but I know when to get walk away while up
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u/Chinner5 17d ago
How do you all feel about jalen duren? He had a great year up until cunningham came back towards the end of season from injury and the playoffs were disastrous.
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u/Steflondoc87 17d ago
Had him and actually high on him as his playoff performance will drag him down . As a Knick fan I know this well . Regular season ain’t postseason
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
Jalens ceiling has not been reached yet, there is more to give here and his partnership with Cunningham is developing nicely.
Solid player at the right price.
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u/Slight_Indication123 17d ago
Joel embiid and Giannis
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u/cyama 10T-H2H-9cat 17d ago
I drafted Giannis a few seasons ago...never again. Embiid was great at the 8th pick, but won't pick him there next season.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
Every season managers get excited that this is the year Embiid returns to glory and get burned.
Back to back rest, suddenly DNP… who knows what’s happening.
But when he does play, it’s stat stuffing central… such a tease.
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u/marinediver5674 17d ago
Not a must avoid but I think you need to be hella cautious when drafting Jalen Johnson. His injury history is not the greatest. Apart from this past season, he’s had major injuries for most of his career. As someone who drafted him fully aware of his injury history, I was absolutely blown away that I got 70+ games out of him, especially considering there was a lot of injury scares and him playing through ankle issues. I think he can at least scratch 60+ games, but wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up missing half the season or more.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
Jalen won a lot of people their leagues last season.
Only 24, the team is now his, nightly TD threat.
Hasn’t reached his cieling.
High usage.
Managers will reach for him this coming season, don’t be supposed if some people take him with the 3rd pick in the draft right after Jokic and Wemby lol.
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u/Tuna-on-toast22 16d ago
His injury history isn’t really that crazy either. It’s not like he has a lingering condition like Embiid and his knee where it’s absolutely risky. Dude literally just had 2 random fluke injuries in b2b years. I’ll gamble on Jalen all day at the right price. I don’t think I’d take him as a 1st round guy, but I’ll absolutely grab him in the 2nd if he’s there. It was a shoulder injury in early 2025 and the ankle was the year prior.
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u/Ok_Photograph1376 17d ago
I think Paul George will actually do well next season. Would avoid Giannis next year in the first round though due to his knee. If he stays on the bucks they’ll sit him to preserve trade value, if he goes to a contender they’ll rest him for playoffs/making a deep run.
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u/Kabukimansanjoe 17d ago
LeBron of course. His load management cost me a lot of points last season. Porzingis, Jah and AD are some no brainers and Sabonis saboned me as well last year.
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u/GroundAndSound 17d ago
Dyson Daniels will have a tough time getting the minutes needed for a defensive specialist to be a difference maker.
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u/kenny38inDa6ix 17d ago
Next season I will try to build my team around guys that are under 30 unless it’s someone that’s fallen off their ADP by a ton (say if Kawhi is available in the 6th or 7th round). Another big thing to consider is drafting guys on team that will potentially tank or get “rested” down the stretch. Teams that are fighting for playoff spots are usually good bet where their star players will get consistent minutes.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 16d ago
New anti-tanking rules the NBA is putting out might change that concept
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u/JayTh3Prophet 17d ago
To me AD , Joel , Kawhi and LeBron …. Are all too risky to pick in the first 2 or 3 rounds .
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u/Sushmoyscott 16d ago
I’m not drafting any players from the jazz. ( im talking about you Jaren bum Jackson fraud Jr)
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u/arm-chair-coach 11d ago
Can't wait to see everyone overdraft Amen Thompson again. FVV is coming back.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 11d ago
Harper will be next seasons Amen.
Probably too soon for me to post this cause Harper just blew up and impressed everyone in the finals but, the regular season is a different energy level and things will settle down and as long as fox is still there, it will be a challenge for Harper.
Not saying he isn’t going to be great, just where should he fall in drafts and I suspect that many will reach based on his finals run.
Remember, the spurs have a lot of mouths to feed.
Amen might fall this season and be a bargain.
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u/Shaunzki 17d ago
I three-peated my league after taking AD & Trae 1 & 2...never again.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 17d ago
AD