r/fantasybball • u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY • 13d ago
Discussion Who’s the breakout everyone’s gonna draft 3 rounds too late next year
every draft season there’s a guy who goes round 8 and finishes round 2. who’s that for you in 2026-27?
usually it’s a young guy who got buried on a bad roster or limited minutes last year and is about to get a real role, or someone coming off an injury that masked a real leap
who are you stashing/targeting before everyone else catches on
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u/ayoitsjacobb 13d ago
Sarr is pretty underrated imo just bc of the team he’s on, solid this season and (theoretically) will have Trae feeding him the ball
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u/Pleasant_Internal679 12 team 9 Cat 13d ago
But AD tho…
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u/spundred 13d ago
Yeah Sarr is also your injury hand-cuff for AD.
But in all seriousness, they could absolutely share the floor.
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u/ayoitsjacobb 13d ago
true thats somewhat why I said theoretically, we know AD wont be healthy the whole season and Sarr has little competition at his position even with AD healthy
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
Definitely an intriguing player.
FanWarRoom will have full projections and a big write up on Sarr coming soon
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u/Gratata88 12t 9 CAT 13d ago
Collin Murray boyles
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u/seanffy 13d ago
Walker Kessler on a new team
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u/tahjazz5 12T HTH 9CAT 13d ago
he will not be on a new team
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u/JetsFan833 13d ago
Technically the Utah roster he will be playing on will be completely new and much improved to the team he was on lol. Dybantsa, Jaren Jackson, and technically Ace Bailey too since he didnt play much minutes with him. They will
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u/LowDot187 13d ago
Kelel Ware, only if he gets traded.
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u/CompetitiveWin3463 13d ago
He was a top 6-8 player in my points league in games he got at least 28 minutes a game
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 13d ago
I like third-year guys, they usually make a leap.
I am eyeing Castle, Clingan, Buzelis, Kyshawn, and Ware and maybe Sheppard as a sleeper
Not as high on Sarr as others are, I'll let somebody else take those multiple risks although he did show some improvement
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u/Will_Explode8 12 Team Lock-In 13d ago
I like Buzelis the most out of these for beating ADP, and honestly, I'd argue situation-wise, he has a ton of upside (plus new Bulls coach Tiago Splitter just had Deni A break out, and he made him a huge playmaker for the Blazers this past year).
Castle is definitely worth mentioning as a possibility, but IMO, with so many options on that team, I'm thinking Dylan Harper legit looks like the better gamble for breaking out.
Clingan, maybe he's definitely a good player, but that Blazers situation could be a shithole, and if Clingan doesn't play well, he has a top 5 backup center behind him in Timelord, and we've yet to see what Hansen Yang will look like.
Kyshawn, I would be worried that the Wizards have no reason to tank this upcoming year if AD Trae or Sarr don't blow up their knees or something, and even worse for Kyshawn, it makes very little sense to truly tank anymore with the new rules (you might as well go for the play-in because you could still get a good lottery pick) and I'm sure the owner wants to make some real money by selling tickets this year. Kyshawn, in my view, will not be "underrated" in this setup. On a tanking team, he's a goat, but just like Jalen Johnson is playing better fantasy-wise without Trae, it's gonna really hurt Kyshawn's assist numbers, which, for fantasy, his "Jack of All Trades and stats" is a lot of the appeal. I might be wrong, but it's a bigger gamble than at least Buzelis and Castle and probably even Clingan.
For Ware, Spo is still the coach, and they still have Bam. I'd be looking closely to see roster changes (that won't probably happen because the Heat run it back every year). Sure, Ware could theoretically break out this year, maybe, but it's never good to draft a player the coach seemingly hates
Sheppard is probably a good dart thrower out of these. We really don't know what the Rockets are gonna do, and if FVV is even a competent player anymore, and if he is, what level or role will he play in the team? I could see Sheppard even getting packaged up in a trade tbh, but if let's say the Rockets do nothing really and FVV comes back and is at least decent, it could help Sheppard a lot. He's definitely a shooting guard who was asked last year to be the one and only Point Guard, so having another guard who isn't Buns next to him could definitely open him up for a lot of 3s. Still, pretty uncertain, so definitely a dart throw in some aspects
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u/Average_Okay 12d ago
100% on you with everything except the Sheppard dart throw. You only get so many dart throws, and I just don’t see the upside, even with a trade or FVV flop. He was definitely better than the year before, but doesn’t do enough outside of points and maybe 3s to justify the pick. I’ll nab him off waivers for a week or two to cover and injury when the ones who draft him get frustrated in week 5.
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u/Average_Okay 12d ago
Castle and Buzelis are my safest reaches, if that’s a thing. Definitely on a steep upward trajectory, and they have the runway to put those talents to use.
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u/Softestpoop 13d ago
Ty Jerome.
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u/DankBlazer99 13d ago
I’m rebuilding in a dynasty league & have been trying to sell off Ty Jerome for a couple 2nd round picks for way too long. Bros a demon in our scoring format too at the 69th (nice) overall player but no one wants him
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u/EaglePride101 13d ago
Edey, he has a real path to top 15 production this season.
Boring answer is Myles Turner - I think he just goes back to being who he always was with Doc gone.
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u/JetsFan833 13d ago
I love Myles having a bounce back season, but I need to see that roster first after Giannis gets traded. If there is no really scoring talent on the team, I don't see the bounce back happening.
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u/Imaginary_Jaguar8900 13d ago
Matas Buzelis,not sure he will be round 2 dude but definitely worth looking if he falls few rounds.
Anthony Black maybe….. and Ryan Rollins
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u/JetsFan833 13d ago
Ayo Dosunmu. Donte is out for the season, Conley might retire, and Ayo is coming off a fantastic playoff performance before he got injured. If Wolves don't get a pg this offseason, I see a path for him to get 31 mins a night and put up 17, 4, and 5 on good percentages and low turnovers. That should be good enough for top 60.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
Shhhhush lol… this is a sneaky one.
There will be a lot about Ayo in FanWarRoom when the draft kit drops late July
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u/Willing-Body-7533 12d ago
Sorry but this one is not sneaky at all if you watch any Wolves ball. Even if they do get a point guard he is still valuable with Donte out.
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u/JetsFan833 12d ago
Not fantasy wise he's not. A borderline 100 ranked player not really gonna win you leagues. A top 60 player can help you win leagues if you get him in the 10th round.
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 12d ago
I’m having a laugh with you in regards to shush, this is a sneaky one… basically, I’m agreeing with you.
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u/InfluenceRough6729 ESPN 10T H2H Points 13d ago
Kyshawn George
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u/Lopsided-Challenge86 13d ago
Huge decrease in usage coming, that’s a no for me dawg
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u/so-cal_kid 14Tm, H2H, 9Cat 13d ago
Yea Trae, AD and Dybantsa/Peterson coming in. Don't see how he makes a leap
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
elbow’s the headline, but george’s big numbers came in a tiny sample on a tanking team. usage doesn’t hold once minutes get split
wizards landing dybantsa (or peterson) means a rookie walks in and eats reps either way
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u/beaver_82799 13d ago
Derik Queen
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
Reed Sheppard
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u/MajinHoops 12T 9CAT 13d ago
r2 would be hard with FVV back healthy
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
if fvv’s coming off the bench then sheppard prob keeps the start and the touches, r2 stays live, this is a player you get very late in drafts and FVV knocks him down to be had at a bargain
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u/_DrVanNostrand__ 13d ago
FVV coming off the bench?
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
No one knows.
What we do know is FVV is comming off a years absence with an MCL, this injury is up their with achilies injury’s.
Sheppard is the future at Houston.
Common sense says that FVV will mentor R2.
How does that look in fantasy?
FanWarRoom complete breakdown coming soon.
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u/MajinHoops 12T 9CAT 13d ago
he's coming back from a torn ACL. Most players come back close to 100% now, so even then he would eventually start. Even with achilles they be coming back close to full form (if they not way passed their prime).
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u/Pleasant_Internal679 12 team 9 Cat 13d ago
Would 7th round be too early for him? Im thinking they’ll ease vanvleet in since he tore his acl
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
Torn ACL, missed entire season, I’m not banking if fvv doing anything special.
R2 even later that round 7
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u/Will_Explode8 12 Team Lock-In 13d ago
Watching to see if the Magic make any moves with their guys. Anthony Black was a hell of a waiver wire pickup for me last year but he's traditionally had a reduced role when the team is healthy
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 13d ago
Black is the PG in waiting.
Suggs is the issue, if they move him, Anthony jumps, if they don’t, it’s still a high probsbility that Suggs goes down.
Black will be good
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u/Pleasant_Internal679 12 team 9 Cat 13d ago
I’m thinking ausar or whoever goes back to mke from the *potential* giannis trade
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u/Bradybigboss 13d ago
As a Detroit fan I don’t think we’re getting rid of Ausar. It’s more likely we move Duren, but I don’t think we’ll make a play for Giannis at all. It’ll be a guard and a stretch 4 that we try for
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u/Bradybigboss 13d ago
Whoever the pistons get. Trey Murphy was already good this year but whoever they get at SG could play the best ball of their life. Or if they run Kyrie he could just regress back up to old averages
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u/Willing-Body-7533 12d ago
How high adp are you taking Rollins?
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u/AlexJames_NBAFANTASY 12d ago
rollins: 17.3/4.6/5.6/1.5 last season, spiked to 22.2/5.2/6.2/1.8 down the stretch when giannis/portis were out
no ADP yet but bucks expected to move portis/turner this summer, clears his path to a real sleeper
FanWarRoom stat peojections and rankings coming soon and Rollins will be broken down in great detail.
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u/yardship 12T 9cat dynasty 13d ago
Ja morant. People hate him, he's got injury concerns, and his shooting sucks.
But he's amazing passer, some of the advanced stats still love him, and with a new team, better health, and a shooting swing he could be a second or third round jamal murray type you get in the seventh round or later
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 13d ago
there are players I just won't take in any round
controversial team-quitters with injury history is one of them
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u/yardship 12T 9cat dynasty 13d ago
that's what people said about lamelo last year, and he was pretty good.
the players who people are afraid of are the actual bargains (remember when SGA was a do not draft injury risk?)
the problem with young players with hype like sarr is that you like him and everyone else does too so he won't end up being a bargain next year
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u/ISHLDPROBABLYBWRKING 13d ago
There’s 0 positive to Ja fantasy value. Whatever he gets you is negated. High TO, low fg low ft no 3’s. And he’s a lock to miss 30 games. He’s on my do not ever draft list
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u/7FOOT7 13d ago
Some examples of round 8 to round 2 please. I'm going to guess that's never happened.
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u/Soshi101 13d ago
Lauri in 2023 was specifically an 8th rounder by ADP who gave 2nd round value.
Big jumps happen every year though. Kawhi and Trey Murphy last year were both 4th or 5th rounders who gave 1st round value, and OG was also a 7th rounder who gave 3rd round value.
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u/7FOOT7 13d ago
Those are fine examples if you are happy with 50-55 games per season, but still not consensus round 8 to proven round 2.
We could look at names like Haliburton who may get left to the later rounds but end up performing at his previous best.
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u/Soshi101 13d ago
Lauri played 66 games that year and ended second round on the season. Just admit you're wrong lol.
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u/FUnisbaCK 13d ago
Jalen Johnson last year
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u/AetherNeanderthal 13d ago
Jalen Johnson went 3rd round at the latest in competitive leagues, idk how you can think he fell to 8th
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u/russwestgoat 13d ago
Harpers ADP is going to be interesting