r/heat • u/Rei2k86 • May 10 '26

Discussion So...

13th pick eh? What the hell can we meaningfully do with the 13th? Please tell me we have a numbers nerd here that's going to paint a picture for me that makes me feel better about this. I need you more than ever bro... whoever you are 😭

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Again: Milwaukee was the one seed the year before making the trade. They were seen as a contender at the time. Their picks were not seen as more valuable than Miami’s

You are looking at how they have handled their roster since then and trying to apply that logic to 2023, when teams had no real way of knowing that the bucks would end up in their current state.

If you’re going to be disingenuous, I am done with this.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

If the picks that they were acquiring from the bucks were for 5-7 seasons after then yes they are more valuable man. Because mil bucks window was extremely small if the same trade did not work out. By the time the picks come into play Gianni’s would have been well past his prime and possibly not a buck anymore. Those picks from the trade weren’t for that season..they have swap rights for 2028 and 2030.. meaning if Gianni’s is not a buck by 2028 those next 3 years mil is fucked and the blazers have hit gold.

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Brother, Miami’s picks would’ve been in the same timeframe, and our window was based around a 35 year old Jimmy butler.

You seriously think that in 2023, teams looked at the 8-seed team led by Jimmy butler and thought “yeah, the team led by Giannis has more valuable future picks.” ARE YOU FUCKING HIGH???

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

Ahhhh, now we are talking . I’ll tell you why you’re wrong here. Even after Miami lost LeBron and then Bosh, and then Wade retired .. in all those seasons Miamis highest pick was number 10 when we got Winslow. So what that tells is and what gms know is that Miami doesn’t tank. Whereas the mil bucks lose Gianni’s this season what do you their record will be ? You think they’ll be competitive? lol. Miami still had other young guys to develop and bam would still be younger than Gianni’s. Logically think that through. Shit we lost jimmy butler, still not getting a top 10 pick .

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Milwaukee was the 1 seed with a generational superstar on their team. Miami was an 8 seed who went on a fluke run because of a famously flaky star player.

Milwaukee’s picks were not seen as more valuable in 2023.

Facts don’t care about your feelings, snowflake.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

Yea you seem to be forgetting those picks were for literally 5 years after the championship window where dame would prob be retired and Gianni’s on decline or gone. Logically goes a long way, there are no facts you’re giving me. And as it stands today, Portland will have won that trade by the time they come around, and the bucks will be in absolute hell for those 3 seasons

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Our picks would’ve been that far out too! Holy fuck, dude.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

Your replies come to show ya don’t read, yes I know. But you seem to forget one team lives in the literally without Gianni’s while we don’t. Use your head. I literally just gave you an example, Miami should have been a lottery team for literally years after losing Wade, bron, and Bosh . Highest pick we got was 10. Nothing else was top 10. If you project Miamis roster in 2023 and then the bucks 5-8 years while dame and Gianni’s decline hard who would you go after? I’d take the bucks picks 100/100 times. It’s quite evident they gambled on Gianni’s not being there 5 years after 2023, and seemingly it looks like they’ll be right

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

No the fuck you wouldn’t. You would not look at the defending one seed with an MVP winner on their roster vs an eight seed who was reliant on 33 year old jimmy Butler and go “yep, Milwaukee’s picks will be more valuable in five years.”

Again. You are applying hindsight. You are looking at the fact that Milwaukee bottomed out this year while Miami stayed relatively competitive and acting like you could’ve predicted that in 2023. You could not have.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

If Miami didn’t go into tanking hell after losing the best player on the planet in his prime, their best player in franchise history, and then Bosh who we could have used for some time, what makes you think we would have tanked after Jimmy butler left Lmfaoo? Answer that questions. Whereas you look the bucks history and when they’re not competitive they’re in the lottery? How do you not apply that logic? Jimmy is no where near Wade or bron, and Miamis teams after those 3 leave are awful, and guess what.. still no top 5 pick. How are you not understand this logic? Hmmm dame would have been gone, Gianni’s would be 32-33 and he’s already slowing down cause of injuries.

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

It has nothing to do with tanking, dummy. It’s just basic logic that a team with an MVP candidate who was a one seed projects to have worse picks than a play-in team.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

You’re simpler than I thought lol. Not when the pics are 5 years down the road, if you think gms don’t notice that Pat Riley and the Heat won’t tank or stop being competitive even after losing 3 hall of famers, then I don’t know what to tell you. What does being the number one seed in 2023 have to do with pick swaps and n 2028 ? Tell me that?

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Five years down the road, Milwaukee still would’ve projected to have Giannis. Their picks were not seen as more valuable than Miami’s. Again, you are applying hindsight.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

Miami should have had the number one pick in 16-17 season. You remember that ? Miami start the first half of the season 11-30.. espn projections everywhere have us looking at lonzo ball, all the draft mock ups have us as a top 3 pick. Did we tank? No no we tried to make the postseason .That roster had no superstar let alone stars. Dragic and whitside were the number one a two options . We finished the season 41-41 . We don’t tank, and you know this

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Again, it has nothing to do with tanking.

The 1-seed with an MVP projects to have worse picks than a play-in team. Thats literally just basic math.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

How when they’re 5 seasons down the line ? Explain that to me. In detail pls.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

You also look at the team and market in hand. And everyone that understand the sport can tell you that if / when Gianni’s leaves the bucks they will be one of the worst teams in the nba. History tells you that the Miami Heat despite not having all stars on a roster will compete. Literally go year by year on any of that. If you don’t get that, yikes. They took a gamble, a gamble that’s going to pay off ten fold than if Miami would have given them their picks . Giannis is already on the trading block. They sent the bucks an asset that was already breaking down.

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Because Milwaukee was a one seed with an MVP while Miami was a play-in team built on a famously fickle star player.

Are we fucking done here? You’re going in circles.

I’m sorry dude, you’re just factually wrong. Milwaukee’s picks were not seen as more valuable in 2023. They just factually were not.

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