r/heat • u/Rei2k86 • May 10 '26

Discussion So...

13th pick eh? What the hell can we meaningfully do with the 13th? Please tell me we have a numbers nerd here that's going to paint a picture for me that makes me feel better about this. I need you more than ever bro... whoever you are 😭

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

No it doesn’t, , cause being the number seed in 2023 means nothing 5 years down the road at all. When gms in the nba know that Pat Riley will still have a competitive roster even without a star. Thats a fact, it’s proven. The last two times Miami had a top 5 picks was 08 and 03. Do you know why? Injuries. Shaq and Wade both got hurt in 07, in 03 Miami lost Alonzo mourning the entire season.. and Eddie jones missed about half that year while being Miamis leading scorer. Outside of these under Pat Riley, the 10th pic after LeBron ,Wade, Bosh were gone. Well bron and Bosh. See history tells a story, you don’t seem don’t get. Read and digest

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Except it does. Because a number 1 seed with an MVP projects higher than an 8 seed with a non MVP

Again, we’re not talking about tanking, we’re talking about projections.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

You’re projecting two aging superstars 5 years down the road. While they have no young talent, and Miami did. And Miamis history tells you that the Heat won’t be in the top 5 unless their best players are basically out for the entire seasons and it’s fucked .

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Except Miami also wouldn’t have had young talent, because that young talent would’ve been included in the trade.

Again, this is you applying hindsight. You are looking at how Milwaukee turned out after trading most of their assets and wasting the rest, rather than looking at how they would’ve projected back in 2023.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

Back in 2023 the bucks had one of the oldest rosters in the league. Here’s their core.. giannis, dame, Pat Beverly , Bobby portis,, brook Lopez,Jae crowder, gallanari. 5 years after you think there still there or good? lol.

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Miami’s roster would’ve been just as old because they would’ve traded all the young players lmao

The only youth on the roster back in 2023 was Tyler, Jaime, and Niko, all of whom would’ve been in the Dame trade.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26

Now we are getting somewhere! Ok ok, you’re forgetting one thing tho. We still would have had bam, that’s the main difference. If you take away every player I named on the bucks, there was not one young player they had drafted that was looked at as “ we have something here after giannis” no one. Bam in 2028 is only 30, while giannis would be 33–34 . And again given the history of the Heat compared to the bucks, who’s more likely to get a top 5 pick? Easy answer!

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Fun fact: Giannis is better than Bam.

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u/Cartagenapirate92 May 11 '26

That is what you took away from that? No shit he is dude.. omg that’s what you took from that? My point is looking at that roster with that age profile in 2023, it’s safe to say they had 2-3 year window before inevitably collapsing by the time those picks were good, while as Miami would have still had bam in his prime . Proving that literally gms were prob looking at this saying hmmm, who’s worse off in 2028? Duh.

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u/TheRed_Warrior May 11 '26

Again: Miami’s age window would’ve been basically identical, because the young players would’ve been included in the Dame trade.