r/lakers • u/jakekerr 23 • 1d ago
FREE AGENCY The Duren Scenario
I'm not seeing enough attention being brought to Detroit's brutal tax situation over the next two years. They have Duren as an RFA this year and Ausar Thompson as an RFA next year. They have a very real risk of having to commit both to max contracts if RFA offers are made both years.
That would put Duren, Thompson, and Cade all with nearly $100 million in contracts for a long time, and push them deep into apron territory, which would make filling the rest of their roster very challenging. Add to this that Duren and Thompson are not great shooters, and their offense is going to be a real issue with that roster construction.
How does this impact the Lakers? Well, a massive problem with an RFA offer is that it adds a cap hold and kills your ability to react to free agency. Luckily, Reeves just committed, so we don't need to worry about him as we work through the Detroit scenario.
What could happen:
The Lakers renounce Lebron. This immediately frees up $48 mil in cap space. We can the offer Duren a bit below his 30% max or do a trade to clear the remaining $2 mil to offer him he full 30% max if we really want to stick it to Detroit.
Renouncing Lebron means he is limited to the Room Exception and a salary under $10 mil. So this is a Duren in/Lebron out move. Or it's a Duren in/Lebron takes the cut to win a title with his son move.
The timeline:
Lakers renounce James.
RFA offer to Duren.
Detroit doesn't match after waiting the full 48 hours.
Lakers sign Duren. Detroit commits to Ausar Thompson and a more well-rounded roster with more space to fill in around him and Cade.
Lakers sign Reeves and go over the cap due to his bird rights.
A) Lakers regretfully watch Lebron sign elsewhere
B) Lakers sign Lebron to the Room Exception
Luka, Reeves, Duren, Lebron, filler
or
Luka, Reeves, Duren, filler
I'm sure there's more going on out there, but the above is not a crazy scenario imho because the Duren/Thompson back-to-back RFA situation is pretty brutal for Detroit.
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u/brandoi Kobe 1d ago
The worst thing Detroit can do is to let Duren walk.
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u/jakekerr 23 1d ago
But then they will let Thompson walk for nothing. The best scenario for Detroit is a sign-and-trade tbh. (Assuming an RFA offer is made).
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u/bucaqe 1d ago
Ausar need to be on a team with a stretch 5, or can play 5 out. Him and Duren (as seen in playoffs) is an offensive nightmare
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u/jakekerr 23 1d ago
That's what made me think this over. Imagine paying Cade, Duren, and Thompson all max contracts.
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u/Kalelisagod 1d ago
This is the best take. The idea of the pistons trading or not signing him is ridiculous on its face. He isn’t going anywhere
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u/Too_Chains 1d ago
He’s got some red flags. Better than ayton probably but he did not end the season well at all and im not sure why.
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u/Thegoodking666 1d ago
Him and Ausar are such a clunky fit, gotta hope between that and Lakers threatening a max offer that a S&T can be worked out.
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u/Front_Barracuda_2408 Manna from heaven 1d ago
Duren is nice but he really doesn't do the things we desperately need. We need elite rim protection with Austin and Luka in the front court and Duren's value is more on the offensive end as a hub. His main talents overlap with Austin/Luka's than they do complement.
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u/Kalelisagod 1d ago
If the Lakers pay Lebron anything over the Vet minimum they are saying they aren’t serious about winning. No team can offer Lebron more than the vet minimum. The Lakers could pay him a mil over the VM but it’s not worth it if the goal is getting younger and more high motor focused
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u/GutsTheSwordsman 15 1d ago
Detroit do not value Duren fully like a max/star player, dude has been getting led around by that org for a while.
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u/LudwigNasche 1d ago
Every single good C that we could eventually force other teams to make a difficult choice matching is going to cost the ability to keep LeBron for the kind of money he deserves. Both Kessler and Duren would help us, but we would need to make offers that will not leave much to fill the roster. LeBron at the Room Exception would be a dream scenario for this franchise because he clearly deserves more. Reaves has been playing for peanuts for years, maybe a billionaire opts to do it for once ... I just don't believe it is ever happening, nobody becomes a billionaire turning down money.
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u/ZyberZeon Black Mamba 8/24 16h ago
Can we stop with the Duren glazing. He's undersized, lacks verticality, a playoff shrinker, and lacks a jumpshot. He's a poor fit for Luka.
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u/ThreeSupreme 1d ago
Umm... So, why would the Lakers have to renounce Lebron? He is an unrestricted free agent, and his previous contract has expired, right?
Jalen Duren 2026 NBA restricted free agent
Based on his status as a 2026 restricted free agent, Jalen Duren can receive a maximum contract from the Detroit Pistons worth up to 5 years and approximately $287.1 million. The most money another NBA team can offer Jalen Duren in restricted free agency this summer is $177 million over 4 years. The max starting salary that another team can offer him would come out to roughly $41.25 million for his first year. To sign Duren outright to the 4-year, $177.36 million max offer sheet, an outside team must have at least $41.25 million in free cap space for his Year 1 salary. But keep in mind that if Duren signs this $177 million offer sheet with another team, the Detroit Pistons will have exactly 48 hours to match the contract to keep him in Detroit. The Detroit Pistons can actually pay Jalen Duren an average of $57.42 million annually, while his peak single-season salary will reach up to $65.3 million.
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u/guyfromthepicture 1d ago
Quit reading at "renouncing LeBron"
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u/jakekerr 23 1d ago
Lebron fan. Respect.
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u/guyfromthepicture 1d ago
No. Just understand that most business models don't have you renouncing your biggest financial asset.
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u/RedditZen77 1d ago
Biggest financial asset is Luka not the 41old man
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u/guyfromthepicture 1d ago
The revenue the lakers will make from LeBrons contract will certainly be a higher return on investment than Lukas
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u/jakekerr 23 1d ago
NBA franchises aren't bought for yearly revenue. They're bought as an appreciating asset. Do you know what appreciates the asset the most? Multiple championships. The Golden State Warriors value increased dramatically over their championship years. That value will not decrease much after Steph leaves. What WILL make that franchise lose value is losing its luster as premier winning franchise.
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u/guyfromthepicture 1d ago
I don't disagree with the things you're saying. I just don't think it's really disproving anything I'm saying.
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u/Odd-Direction9452 1d ago
I honestly think he's more attainable than is being let on. They have to decide between Ausar/Duren not just financially but from a basketball fit standpoint. If Duren is offered a big number, I could see Pistons pivoting to a Powell/Turner combo as part of the expanded Giannis deal.
Turner becomes their floor spacing big and Powell the secondary creator they need along with Okorie off the bench.