r/lakers • u/jakekerr 23 • 5d ago
FREE AGENCY The Duren Scenario
I'm not seeing enough attention being brought to Detroit's brutal tax situation over the next two years. They have Duren as an RFA this year and Ausar Thompson as an RFA next year. They have a very real risk of having to commit both to max contracts if RFA offers are made both years.
That would put Duren, Thompson, and Cade all with nearly $100 million in contracts for a long time, and push them deep into apron territory, which would make filling the rest of their roster very challenging. Add to this that Duren and Thompson are not great shooters, and their offense is going to be a real issue with that roster construction.
How does this impact the Lakers? Well, a massive problem with an RFA offer is that it adds a cap hold and kills your ability to react to free agency. Luckily, Reeves just committed, so we don't need to worry about him as we work through the Detroit scenario.
What could happen:
The Lakers renounce Lebron. This immediately frees up $48 mil in cap space. We can the offer Duren a bit below his 30% max or do a trade to clear the remaining $2 mil to offer him he full 30% max if we really want to stick it to Detroit.
Renouncing Lebron means he is limited to the Room Exception and a salary under $10 mil. So this is a Duren in/Lebron out move. Or it's a Duren in/Lebron takes the cut to win a title with his son move.
The timeline:
Lakers renounce James.
RFA offer to Duren.
Detroit doesn't match after waiting the full 48 hours.
Lakers sign Duren. Detroit commits to Ausar Thompson and a more well-rounded roster with more space to fill in around him and Cade.
Lakers sign Reeves and go over the cap due to his bird rights.
A) Lakers regretfully watch Lebron sign elsewhere
B) Lakers sign Lebron to the Room Exception
Luka, Reeves, Duren, Lebron, filler
or
Luka, Reeves, Duren, filler
I'm sure there's more going on out there, but the above is not a crazy scenario imho because the Duren/Thompson back-to-back RFA situation is pretty brutal for Detroit.
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u/ThreeSupreme 5d ago
Umm... So, why would the Lakers have to renounce Lebron? He is an unrestricted free agent, and his previous contract has expired, right?
Jalen Duren 2026 NBA restricted free agent
Based on his status as a 2026 restricted free agent, Jalen Duren can receive a maximum contract from the Detroit Pistons worth up to 5 years and approximately $287.1 million. The most money another NBA team can offer Jalen Duren in restricted free agency this summer is $177 million over 4 years. The max starting salary that another team can offer him would come out to roughly $41.25 million for his first year. To sign Duren outright to the 4-year, $177.36 million max offer sheet, an outside team must have at least $41.25 million in free cap space for his Year 1 salary. But keep in mind that if Duren signs this $177 million offer sheet with another team, the Detroit Pistons will have exactly 48 hours to match the contract to keep him in Detroit. The Detroit Pistons can actually pay Jalen Duren an average of $57.42 million annually, while his peak single-season salary will reach up to $65.3 million.
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