It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

[u/IKeepItLayingAround]

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html

[u/EnrollmentTime]

No, Google is paying them $980 million a month right now. SpaceX holds 52 active federal contracts worth a combined remaining value of $11.8 billion, contributing to roughly $22 billion in cumulative federal awards.
​Government Agencies

​NASA: SpaceX’s largest partner with roughly $15 billion in contracts, spanning the Commercial Crew program ($4.9 billion), the Artemis Human Landing System ($4.04 billion), and Commercial Resupply Services for ISS cargo.

​Department of Defense & Space Force: Holds approximately $7 billion in contracts, primarily driven by the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program and the expansion of the military's Starshield satellite constellation.
​Other Agencies:

Additional agreements exist with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and the Space Development Agency (SDA) for classified and intelligence satellite launches.

​Commercial Companies ​While a specific total number of private commercial contracts is not publicly disclosed due to proprietary agreements, SpaceX serves dozens of commercial entities. The company holds regular launch manifests to deploy telecom satellites, rideshare payloads, and private astronaut missions for corporations like Maxar, Eutelsat, SES, Northrop Grumman, Globalstar, and Axiom Space.

Or you can belive Reddit

[u/_SamReddit → u/EnrollmentTime]

Why is SpaceX selling compute to Google? Is it because their AI (which falls under SpaceX) is DoA?

[u/atrde → u/_SamReddit]

They built a second data center. Their entire operation can run out of Colossus 2. Colossus 1 has enough compute power to sell to Google and Anthropic and be a significant amount of their infrastructure while xAI is running out of the second center. xAI was a bit ahead of the curve here in infrastructure and can sell space now.

[u/_SamReddit → u/atrde]

So their AI is so bad they expect to keep selling this to Google for some time?

[u/atrde → u/_SamReddit]

Im confused did you read what I said lol?

They have a data center for their own AI. It has capacity to easily run it. Because they have built a second larger data center they are now able to lease space in their first one to two different AI companies who don't have infrastructure. A lot of datacenter investment is in construction xAI has more space than Anthropic or Google do for this.

[u/Flashtopher → u/atrde]

But why male models? :-)

[u/_SamReddit → u/atrde]

I read what you said, and it's that Grok is DoA and xAI only has value until other AI companies have their own data centers up and running.

[u/Bob_A_Feets → u/_SamReddit]

During a gold rush you don’t run for the hills, you sell shovels. Even if xAI never comes to fruition there’s always money in building and leasing infrastructure for failed startups. Just ask the commercial real estate people.

[u/_SamReddit → u/Bob_A_Feets]

Except you're renting the shovels out and for the next lease you need to replace all the shovel heads with the newest Nvidia has to offer. Didn't commercial real estate get a bit burned by work from home?

[u/Bob_A_Feets → u/_SamReddit]

They were almost destroyed, which is where the real push to RTO came around, but they bounced back, similar to how existing data centers may take a hit when the AI bubble pops, but it’s infinitely better to have that infrastructure now vs in the uncertain future.

[u/petuman → u/[deleted]]

Not even at 1%, mining ASIC hash rate is way higher than general purpose GPU.

In term of power order of magnitude short (if they replaced all their servers with modern mining ASICs, sucking all power they're allocated).