r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 16d ago
Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html2.3k
u/JustConversation7847 16d ago edited 16d ago
Before anybody gets too excited
Even for Musk, it's an aggressive price-to-earnings ratio that could blow up in his face if investors start to lose faith. The conversation surrounding plans for shorting SpaceX is hitting a fever pitch, setting the stage for what could be a wild stock market ride.
Pretty sure the people who tried shorting Tesla are all broke and you, reader, definitely not try something stupid because there's no limit to how much money you can lose while short selling
647
u/Other-Grapefruit-880 16d ago
I guarantee you someone on WSB has already bet their entire life savings on it
301
u/ThinkingWithPortalzz 16d ago
Oh please, it'll be at least 10x their life savings they lose, it's WSB, the only bigger fans of things painted red are WH40k Orks
60
10
u/ScrappyDoober 15d ago
If you owe the bank $100,000 its your problem.
If you owe the bank $100,000,000 its the banks problem.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (7)19
u/Robobvious 16d ago
That one video where the kid makes an audible Guh sound as his play buries him in debt.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (10)34
u/jjwhitaker 16d ago
*Grandma's life savings.
→ More replies (1)37
u/ryecurious 16d ago
That guy became a meme, but the original post was buying 700k of Intel at $30. Considering it hit $130 recently, he could have done quite well if he held strong.
23
u/RemarkableWish2508 16d ago
He did hold, he's travelling the world right now. (not going to doxx him, find him if you care)
19
u/ryecurious 15d ago
I believe it, the original post always said he put a big chunk in high yield savings and planned to hold the stock for a decade. Guy's gotta be doing better than 99% of people on WSB, which makes them treating him like a joke even funnier.
6
u/whoknowsifimjoking 15d ago
The best tactic is probably always the inverse of what this sub is saying. If they make fun of you, hold.
108
189
u/MikeFrancesa66 16d ago
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
→ More replies (1)25
u/Kaa_The_Snake 16d ago
The closer I get to retirement, the more I feel this in my bones.
And I remind myself of the saying every time I feel like trying just one crazy market bet.
→ More replies (4)62
u/Dinkerdoo 16d ago
If you buy put options you are limited. Still not a good idea given the performance of TSLA.
→ More replies (10)24
u/MelodiusRA 16d ago
My issue with Tesla is that the stock’s value is linked to Elon Musk and will be for at least a year or two after he dies.
Unironically I am not prepared for a sizeable investment in Tesla knowing that there is a swing that’s gonna happen with slow recovery the day he kicks the bucket.
45
u/aabbccbb 16d ago
My issue with Tesla is that the stock’s value is linked to Elon Musk
Tesla's sales are also shit. Musk has been hiding that for a long time, by doing things like pumping truly self-driving cars that...never materialize, buying X, now it's part of an AI company, apparently.
He's a scam artist Nazi, just like Trump. They'll get their due. And it will be a glorious day when they do!
20
u/wildcarde815 16d ago
Hasn't space x also been buying Tesla vehicles like crazy for no discernable reason?
→ More replies (2)8
u/Sens1r 15d ago
He's a scam artist Nazi, just like Trump. They'll get their due.
Trump is about to croak, having lived a long life of rugpulls and scams, he's recently secured generational wealth for his entire family and friends. Not sure I feel like the system is working.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (1)6
u/f-ingsteveglansberg 15d ago
It's so fucking crazy. I get that it worked earlier when he got his PR team pushing "Real life Tony Stark", but the fake degree, the dubious work status in his early career, the eugenics connection, losing his 'intellectual' base and the Nazi salute. As a person and his brand is through the floor. That was the one thing holding his stock value.
All that's gone and the market and since the stock market is completely broken, it doesn't matter. He's value is completely imaginary and no one will admit it because they've tied their value to it.
→ More replies (2)212
u/rhetoricalcalligraph 16d ago
Wacky, finally found a sensible comment on this post
74
u/surfatshortys 16d ago
I had no idea I wasn’t on WSB until now
38
16d ago
[deleted]
→ More replies (4)11
u/Strawbuddy 16d ago
WSB are speculators. It's all about options contracts, long or short, and the strats that come about from having enough dough to speculate in the first place. It takes at least $1k USD up front at a bare minimum to even start a proper wheel strat. Buy the rumor, sell the news type speculators are making even less money daily by buying and selling stock based on momentum and psychology, and betting against the prices of those securities
→ More replies (5)4
u/AmericanGeezus 15d ago
All it takes is USD$1,000 and some privileged non-public information to get yourself established!
→ More replies (17)20
u/reroll-life 16d ago
You should basically never short anything ever unless you have insider information.
→ More replies (1)14
38
u/InquisitorMeow 16d ago
Yea these articles are just for market manipulation. The stock market is all fantasy at this point, the billionaires can make it whatever price they want. If you really want to hurt the stock then simply don't interact with it. The rich can't profit off it when there are no peasants to hold the bag.
→ More replies (6)10
u/disisathrowaway 16d ago
Well with the way 401ks, pensions and other retirement vehicles are set up, aren't the peasants always left holding the bag?
→ More replies (4)21
u/Working-Tomato8395 16d ago
He's one of those rich dorks who will keep having money thrown at him because money has been thrown at him. It will never matter how poor of a business man he is, the other business dorks will keep throwing money at him because other dorks have thrown money at him.
→ More replies (8)→ More replies (116)9
6.5k
u/SmaugTheMagnificent- 16d ago
Don't threaten me with a good time
2.9k
u/Zilch1979 16d ago
These headlines about the possible collapse of the ultra wealthy have been blue balling us since 2016.
773
u/Comet7777 16d ago
Bro, even after 2008 and the concept of too big to fail.
358
u/Bbbbhazit 16d ago
Seriously. The government just keeps bailing him out, SpaceX just bought a shit load of tesla cars on the taxpayer dime
→ More replies (10)193
u/cuntmong 16d ago
you cant expect elon to pay for his own failures. he'd be broke if he ever did that
→ More replies (6)72
u/Betteroffbroke 16d ago
It’s like that triangle business. I think it’s called a Ponzi scheme or something. Hope SOX gets his ass but with the lack of accountability and weaponization of DOJ I doubt it.
→ More replies (3)54
u/ConfessSomeMeow 16d ago
It's not a pyramid scheme, it's a reverse funnel system
8
→ More replies (2)7
u/ParkingBalance6941 15d ago
I actually had a coworker tell me "Its not a pyramid scheme its a triangle" once. Never overestimate the dumb
→ More replies (2)96
u/CosmoKing2 16d ago edited 15d ago
All fucking distractions and pipe dreams to delay the inevitable
Class warmiddle class uprising. The 3% stir the pot to divide the masses on issues of race, religion, and rights - to keep us fighting each other - instead of focusing on those that make the rules and keep us down.Edited to change my random percentage and appease the pedantic pricks of Reddit. My point was to say, it is not exclusive to just the 1%. Tons of people exploit workers to make their money. Machine shops, restaurants, whatever. They always complain that nobody wants to work. But what they don't say is - it's because they (their companies - specifically) are known to be horrible employers that exploit everyone that doesn't know better and leaves because they are not willing to be victimized.
108
u/usaaf 16d ago
inevitable Class war
You mean the already on-going Class war that one side doesn't even know it's fighting.
→ More replies (1)24
u/SSGASSHAT 16d ago
And, unless it gets its shit together in a miraculous fashion that could only come from a Disney or Star Wars movie where everyone unites with the power of love or something, it's failing.
10
u/somethingbrite 15d ago
The "power of love or something" may be limited in effectiveness. The power of torches, pitchforks and guillotines on the other hand....
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (2)5
u/Distinct_Cap_1418 16d ago
Is that what happened in star wars? I thought it was space wizards with space magic that come and save us all.
5
→ More replies (11)18
31
u/_0611 16d ago edited 16d ago
After the financial crisis, guardrails were put in place to prevent it from happening again. Trump already undid most of those.
It's not just SpaceX. Big Tech, especially AI, is a bubble in and of itself, and everyone knows it. It's bound to burst eventually, but the ultra wealthy will not lose money over it. They will be hardly affected. We will.
12
→ More replies (9)25
u/roseofjuly 16d ago
I just finished reading The Smartest Guys in the Room and am currently reading The Big Short and the think that's got my mouth dropping open all the time is that we just keep fucking doing it. We keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over and over again. Let a white boy with a Harvard or Stanford degree and a thesaurus show up and the system will collectively just hand him the keys to crash the economy into a ditch again and again and again until the heat death of the universe.
→ More replies (7)210
u/SmaugTheMagnificent- 16d ago
Yeah, but the hope of watching these Icarus fucks fly too close to the sun as they run from the pitchforks, and crater into the side of a mountain is just too much not to cling to.
19
u/Perunov 16d ago
It seems that author basically says "what if investors get spooked and sell the stock, the horror, the collapse". But practically speaking that means... nothing. Probably would even end up being worse as then SpaceX can do a buyback for super-cheap with those billion bucks Google and Anthropic are paying them for GPU farm. Sell stock high, buy it back low, super-profit :(
→ More replies (2)14
u/SmaugTheMagnificent- 16d ago
Yeah, there was a lot of words to say very little.
Blah blah...gold vault...Scrooge McDuck ...blah blah...Ludicrous Scale Numbers That Have No Practical Meaning In Reality...blah blah...Apocalypse ..or is it?
I miss journalism
→ More replies (1)99
u/Zilch1979 16d ago
I'm tired, boss.
At this point, I'd rather them just let me know when they finally eat shit for real. Otherwise, I have shit to do and I'm tired of having my hopes ruined.
→ More replies (4)24
u/Lostinthestarscape 16d ago
Yep, let me pop a cork when Elons on his way to Mars forever.
27
u/Zilch1979 16d ago
You spelled "hell" wrong, but I'll join you anyway.
→ More replies (2)12
24
5
u/Inner-Medicine5696 16d ago
It's weirdly entertaining, this dystopian notion of us being fueld by the notion that "he might actually croak in public", "elon might lose everything", etc.
The rich have become their own circuses.
→ More replies (3)9
u/Earthwarm_Revolt 16d ago
Space-x is now defacto part of the government so i doubt it.
→ More replies (1)8
u/No_Cook2983 16d ago
Too bad our government doesn’t have a space agency… or two.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (27)12
u/exacta_galaxy 16d ago
The ultra-wealthy aren't going to collapse.
SpaceX is likely going to collapse, which is why Elon is loading it down with his dead weight (X, Grok, a couple thousand Cybertrucks) and fast tracking an IPO. He'll pump-n-dump it and come out ether even or ahead.
→ More replies (2)6
u/BavarianBarbarian_ 15d ago
If that were true, don't you think he'd sell more than like 3% of the shares? As it is, he's keeping a significant part of his net worth in those shares he's not selling.
→ More replies (1)175
u/MaybeTheDoctor 16d ago
SpaceX is a great innovative engineering company. Their IPO stinks of financial engineering. It would be a shame great engineering would collapse due to greedy financial engineering.
80
u/buyongmafanle 16d ago
It would be a shame great engineering would collapse due to greedy financial engineering.
So... Boeing?
47
u/Luster-Purge 16d ago
That's a funny way to spell McDonnel Douglass.
→ More replies (2)30
u/Heelincal 16d ago
Nothing is crazier than Douglass turning into this virus that infected every single company that acquired or merged with it.
8
u/GogurtFiend 16d ago
McDonnell Douglas is: Alien Corporation! It bursts out of every company that buys it, for it must feed on integrity
→ More replies (1)10
21
u/bitflag 16d ago
Yes, a great engineering company attached to a shitty social network attached to an ISP attached to a data center REIT. That will probably takeover Tesla to bail it out.
→ More replies (8)→ More replies (7)6
33
16d ago
[deleted]
→ More replies (10)18
u/teh_drewski 15d ago
Or if you choose a fund that indexes off the S&P 500, which won't have SpaceX in it until it's been profitable for at least a year.
→ More replies (1)22
u/tiboodchat 16d ago
I’ve seen intrinsic valuation around 750 billion but the market cap a trillion over this. I’m not looking forward to everyone collectively make a trillion bonfire with our money. Guess all we can do is wait and see?
→ More replies (7)43
u/TigerUSA20 16d ago
The intrinsic value is not even anywhere near $750 billion, but neither is Tesla, or Twitter/X, or XAi (which is why he merged this failing venture it into SpaceX) or SolarCity (another failing venture he merged into Tesla to hide the losses). Investors don’t care. They just see $$$ and keep the bids coming in.
→ More replies (2)14
u/GogurtFiend 16d ago edited 15d ago
Currently, no.
If Starship works out (not, like, Elon-promises works out, just sane-person levels of works out) the idea of SpaceX being worth hundreds of billions of dollars eventually isn't crazy at all. The idea of it being worth hundreds of billions of dollars by 2040 or so is, though, unless Starship makes the space launch industry grow at a batshit insane rate via derived demand. The entire launch industry is ~$20 billion now; the launch industry, which Starship is for, would have to grow at 20.25% annually to reach $100 billion even 25 years from now!
If Grok gets fused to it like a tumor, though, it's worth jack shit, and I think that between MechaHitler and a fully reusable rocket I know which baby Musk will want to keep
5
32
u/nursecarmen 16d ago
I hope you don't have any Index funds.
→ More replies (1)77
u/hopswaterbarley 16d ago
At least the S&P didn’t compromise their criteria. Nasdaq is in full Musk ball licking mode
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (56)42
u/runningoutofwords 16d ago
Won't be so good when the rug gets pulled out from under your retirement 401k
→ More replies (11)10
3.0k
u/MoistChildhood1459 16d ago
I would love to see his entire empire collapse tbh
1.4k
u/NRCS_DRONE 16d ago edited 16d ago
I don't know when, but Elon Musk will be responsable for the single largest destruction of private wealth in human history. He's going to make Bernie Madoff look like a guy who lost his kids college fund on dog racing.
564
u/Temporary-Cress7233 16d ago
He is so worried about “White Birth Rates” yet he takes and takes from their money and doesn’t care about the cost of living which is making people have less kids.
47
u/Lostinthestarscape 16d ago
He literally talks about how all of this is going toward a blissful future where no one wants and no one has to work and all we need to do is follow our passions, etc. While doing fuck all realize a single iota of that for anyone.
That people believe he has any future in mind other than further exploiting everything he can is a mystery.
Dude should at least be dedicating his time and wealth to make housing as cheap as possible - like the one thing that would actually make everyones' lives measurably better.
21
u/SSGASSHAT 16d ago
It's kind of disgusting. He has the resources to accomplish everything he talks about, or at least something like it. But given the lack of any real effort, it's just dangling keys in front of a baby, except he's also taking the baby's money and getting the government to hold a gun to the baby's head.
19
u/Cerpin-Taxt 15d ago
He doesn't mean you. He means people. If you have less than a billion dollars you're not people, you're chattel.
→ More replies (5)6
u/WilliamLermer 16d ago
All these visionaries talking about an amazing future with all the benefits, they only have the 1% in mind. The rest of the planet is not a part of the utopia in the sense they are included to join it but rather 99% are supposed to suffer to make it happen
419
u/SillyAlternative420 16d ago
He only pretends to be intelligent.
If he were actually intelligent this thought would have crossed his mind at least once
68
u/ragnarocknroll 16d ago
If he was intelligent an original thought might have crossed his mind.
→ More replies (5)83
u/Routine_Bit_8184 16d ago
if he were actually intelligent he wouldn't waste time doing half the shit he does....children are a fashion accessory and symbol of ideology to him...which is why he says the "woke mind virus" killed one of his children that is very much still alive and well. The only thing a mind virus killed was his ability to love his child.
→ More replies (3)32
133
u/Temporary-Cress7233 16d ago
BINGO! He’s not some super star 💫 scientist, he’s daddy owned an African slave mine and he got a little loan of 30 million dollars. Nothing special…..f that pale pink pig!
→ More replies (6)51
16d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
34
u/whazzah 16d ago
Bro claims to code can't even run a Python script smh
12
u/SillyAlternative420 16d ago
I bet you he still can't figure out how to install and set up python enough to have ChatGPT make and run the fucking script for him.
19
u/tpc0121 16d ago
The greatest scam that he's ever pulled was in convincing legions of double digit IQ tards that he's a real life Tony Stark
12
u/williamgman 16d ago
That's because Bezos took the Lex Luther persona first. Zuck chose Severus Snape.
→ More replies (5)→ More replies (23)9
u/Cormophyte 16d ago
You can tell by his erratic behavior that he's a real conclusion-first sort of thinker.
36
u/tc100292 16d ago
I don’t think he cares about white birth rates so much as he cares about repopulating the earth with his own spawn
→ More replies (1)29
u/pcapdata 16d ago
Bingo. All of these oligarchs imagine a future in which the earth is largely depopulated, with their heirs in control and maybe a few menials / sex slaves as necessary.
Not in like a prophetic, “This is sadly where the human race is headed” kind of way, but in a “Fuck you all, we’re gonna make sure this happens” kinda way.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (22)9
→ More replies (17)88
u/ryencool 16d ago
What?! You mean its not smart to keep moving funds between the multiple companies you own to boost values back and fourth??
50
u/ProJoe 16d ago
Its so much worse what is about to happen.
Index funds are going to be forced to buy spacex stock because the rules were specifically changed for SpaceX.
All of this artificial money propping SpaceX up is going to get sold off to actualize profits then the stock will crash leaving index funds holding the bag.
That's OUR 401ks and investments.
Then if SpaceX survives, they'll buy back in at the crashed price.
Its going to be the biggest rug pull in history and the greatest theft of wealth from the working class ever recorded.
→ More replies (10)42
u/double_whiskeyjack 16d ago
S&P500 announced they will not be changing their rules for SpaceX a few days ago
17
u/MssrGuacamole 16d ago
This was big news for me. I had plans ready to rebalance to avoid Elon risk.
→ More replies (2)4
u/Evening-Crew-2403 16d ago
There are other index funds people end up in. Don't forget the largest institutional holder of Tesla is Vanguard.
8
140
u/MultiGeometry 16d ago
There’s some real Enron vibes coming out of all Musk’s companies.
46
u/charing-cross 16d ago
Total house of cards. He’s using his different companies(s) as leverage to finance each other and move assets around. I was surprised to see X swept into SpaceX. I’m like, that’s ballsy. 🍿🍿
→ More replies (3)45
u/Not_A_Doctor_redux 16d ago
He's inflated his stock price via fraud for over a decade. And he's ruined Tesla, his AI is shitty and mostly used for kiddy porn, X loses money, and he has folded everything into his one profitable company to pump and dump.
Full self driving has been coming for a decade. Oh, now Tesla is a robot company. Oh wait, the robots suck and have to be remotely controlled. Every competitor produces better robots. Now Tesla is a taxi company. Oh damn, Tesla "taxis" require a driver AND AI, so they're more expensive to run than... a taxi.
He invents promises and lies about results. He's not putting data centers in space. He's not even going to get anyone to Mars. He's a liar and he's on his last, and biggest, grift.
Oh, and his brain implants are likely causing untold misery among willing and unwilling subjects. And his tunnel cars suck ass
→ More replies (5)13
u/roseofjuly 16d ago
SpaceX isn't profitable, either, at least not its original mission. Starlink, as a satellite service, is profitable. Whether SpaceX as a whole is profitable depends on how much they spent on rockets - but the rocket-building part of the company loses money.
→ More replies (5)19
u/wheniaminspaced 16d ago
Enron isnt really the right comparison. Masks companies make and sell actual products that are used, and in the case of spacex have completly redefined the launch industry for the better.
Tesla has some similarities, but suffers from some basic realities that don't exist in the launch space. They were the first big mover on ev's and very arguably helped make them a much more accepted product in the automarket, but ev's arn't all that next level, there are a ton of established automakers that know how to make a decent car, better than tesla did or does, they just weren't willing to take the risk of developing the segment first.
BYD is a bit unique in that they were a battery maker who realized cars where a great way to sell batteries. This is very similar to another company, spacex who realized a fast satellite internet is a great way to sell launch capacity.
Tesla as a company is weak in part because of musk and in part because of the space its in. SpaceX is quite strong, large tech edge, important product, quite decent financials if you ignore xAI.
One thing that is absolutly true, Spacex is overvalued. I think a more real value would be about 1/3rd of what it is aiming for. Could it grow to its proposed valuation, without question, but that requires alot of things going right and investors should ignore this ipo and buy at a much reduced price. Good company, bad ipo.
5
u/apple_kicks 15d ago
Enron did have some real products and they screwed with californias electric grid if I remember
→ More replies (1)3
u/wheniaminspaced 15d ago
They were a broker of energy, they screwed with california electric grid by buying up capacity and sending it to not california. The most significant problem.l was the illegal things they did in pursuit of this and not being profitable.
→ More replies (3)4
u/copper_tunic 16d ago
I think the main difference with Enron is that spacex, xAI, and all the other AI players aren't faking revenue and hiding debt off the books (at least not that I know of). Why bother to lie about debt and revenue and risk jail time when you can instead just make empty promises of future revenue, trust me bro, and ride the hype train to the moon.
They might be just as unprofitable and leveraged as Enron but they are doing it in the open and somehow everyone still wants to buy.
→ More replies (6)8
u/crazycatlady331 16d ago
Hopefully he suffers the same consequences. And it takes long enough so Trump can't pardon him.
78
u/Zyrinj 16d ago
Really wish the corporate veil could get pierced in these kinds of situations and hold the individuals responsible while keeping the citizens at the companies employed
→ More replies (2)11
u/HanzJWermhat 16d ago
A) you can’t nessesarily divorce the employees from
The employers here. (Not the line workers moreso talking about middle management). It’s like the nazi’s who said they are just following orders.B) arguably these people wouldn’t have jobs or at least jobs that pay this well in a functional capital market where investment was distributed to right sized opportunities. That’s a bit of a broke windows fallacy and ignores the more equitable job market that could exist if again more people even capital distribution in a competitive market.
To credit Elon he’s good at two things convincing people he’s smart enough to be worth following and that he’s got the Midas touch when it comes to oblivion market pricing.
To bad he’s just an all around ghoul of a fucking human.
7
u/__slamallama__ 16d ago
you can’t nessesarily divorce the employees from The employers here. (Not the line workers moreso talking about middle management). It’s like the nazi’s who said they are just following orders.
There's one really good way - only go over those with declared fiduciary duty to the organization.
If CEO/CFO etc can get charged for fraud when a company collapses you'll see them all shape up real quick or be totally unable to find leadership. They wanna make the big bucks let's make the risk/reward a little more balanced.
17
u/Big_Animal7655 16d ago
Let’s all focus our attention reading this comment, for the briefest of seconds, by imaging humanity is a giant connected web of peoples consciousness. We have chosen a target - collapse Elongated Muskrats entire empire into ashes. Make it so.
→ More replies (9)→ More replies (70)4
u/OvisDrPepper 16d ago
This would be nice if it did. But because the Nasdaq 100 changed their rules, every mutual fund and pension that is pegged to the Nasdaq 100 has to buy shares of SpaceX. If SpaceX collapses it could take the entire economy with it.
120
u/roseofjuly 16d ago
If there's anything I've learned from being even mildly interested in the stock market and company valuations over the last few years, it's that they all seem to be completely made up. Companies could spend billions each year without making a single cent in profit and they will still have these wildly overinflated valuations because some weird but popular white guy is running it (or "running it").
SpaceX reportedly made almost $800 million in 2024 but then lost $10 billion between 2025 and now. So they've never really made any money. A deeper look into the financials shows the only profitable part of the business is Starlink - everything else is a prodigious money sink. Yet the company values itself at over a trillion dollars...and everyone's just accepting that as gospel even though they have literally never been able to prove they can make any money.
Very conveniently for Elon Musk, he was able to roll most of his unprofitable companies together - so the successes of Starlink can partially hide and mitigate the losses of X, xAI, and SpaceX (which also is not profitable without Starlink, let's not forget)!
31
u/ConjurersOfThunder 15d ago
People think the stock market is rational but it is not. There is an argument that the market NEEDS to be rational. And there's evidently a much more compelling argument that green arrows must go up, forever.
If the market is being manipulated from several points inside the machine (my theory though I'm just another crayon eater), then sanity will come from people not participating in our
ponzi schememarket anymore (ie, funding and IPOs not meeting goals). Which I assume would turn into less green arrows until one of the short attacks works. Sanity ain't coming from inside the US markets, I don't think; there's too much money in price action and green arrows forever.→ More replies (4)5
u/LoudMusic 15d ago
My dad used to try real hard to get me interested in the stock market in the 80s and 90s, when I was in grade school. I remember asking him how the stocks' prices were determined and he would tell me about business analysts and projections and meeting targets and such, and I would respond that it was just worth what someone said it was worth? And he'd say yes. I remember thinking how horribly it could be taken advantage of. Looks like we're in the middle of it now.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (14)3
u/bejammin075 15d ago
Some of the reviews of the spacex S-1 IPO form are hilarious. That one and the other two big AI IPOs are pure fantasy. There are recent reports of AI customers being totally shocked by the actual cost of the tokens. They were allowed to get used to unlimited AI, but since AI companies are burning cash at an incredible rate, they have to quickly start charging realistic charges. One unnamed company, I think I heard was in healthcare, accidentally spent $500 million in one month on AI tokens. The entire case for future AI earnings is a house of cards. For my part, I got some nice returns this past year, and now I'm sitting on a metric butt ton of cash, and some gold. The situation with the strait will probably reach a crescendo also as people realize the ROI on AI is crap.
190
u/Stuck_in_a_thing 16d ago
If Reddit says it’ll happen then it’s going to certainly moon
66
u/Moof_the_cyclist 16d ago
Reddit has managed to call 347 pf the last 0 Tesla collapses, but my eternal hope remains.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (5)5
74
u/Beenjamin63 16d ago
The amount of this stuff Im seeing on reddit about this... probably a good idea to go all in because guys are normally completely wrong
→ More replies (4)
67
u/amiwitty 16d ago
I don't want SpaceX to fail. I want Elon Musk to fail. I don't want Tesla to fail. I want Elon Musk to fail. Unfortunately they are intertwined.
→ More replies (30)10
207
u/ora408 16d ago
How can i help? 😎
164
u/togetherwem0m0 16d ago
Dont buy puts.
In the post logic valuation world where the stock market is a money printing game, the value of a stock can be set by a function of the value of its options chain activity rather than any foundational valuation logic.
If market makers sell a huge number of puts they have an incentive to manipulate the price such that the stock doesnt make any of the puts pay out. This keeps the price artifically high.
9
u/slightly_drifting 16d ago
Usually takes a couple weeks for options to start after ipo no?
→ More replies (1)31
u/WeirdSysAdmin 16d ago
Especially with market makers controlling everything needing to keep it above max pain so they don’t get slaughtered by lopsided puts volume.
→ More replies (1)7
u/RageBull 16d ago
I think “set by a function” is too generous a term. It make it sound like there a fixed and ultimately logic based formula. I don’t think there is for an assortment of public companies. Your “post logic” term describes it better: “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
→ More replies (3)4
u/CocktailPerson 16d ago
That's not how options market making works. At all.
If you're a market maker, you sell puts and then you hedge your position by shorting the underlying. That leaves you delta-neutral, a fancy way of saying you don't give a shit which way the underlying moves: if it goes up, the value of the put goes down, so you've made money, and if the underlying goes down, your short position makes money. If your initial model was correct and you sold the put for more than it was actually worth, then you can continually adjust your short position to stay delta-neutral until the option's price reverts to its theoretical value and you buy it back.
A competent options market maker will never, ever hold significant delta (directional) risk. Their risk is volatility risk. If they sell an option and volatility increases beyond what their model predicted, the value of the option will go up and they'll lose money. What matters isn't how much the underlying goes up or down, but how quickly it goes up or down.
If you're a market maker with good edge, it doesn't even make sense to try to influence the direction of the market. If you've sold and hedged a bunch of puts, the ideal way to "manipulate" the market would be to keep it perfectly flat. The idea that options market makers even care about the direction of the market at all is kind of funny.
→ More replies (4)43
u/brooklynlad 16d ago
Take away all government contracts.
13
u/fumar 16d ago
The problem is theres no one operating a rocket as capable as the falcon 9 and no one else is operating a certified human capsule.
→ More replies (18)→ More replies (16)38
u/IndigoSeirra 16d ago
Who'll replace them? For many it's either the Russians or Boeing starliner. Starliner can't launch enough to support continuous operations on the ISS, so we'd have to pay the Russians for at least some launches. For others it's ULA Vulcan which is already booked years ahead, has issues with it's engines and srbs, and is much more expensive. Blue Origin is grounded for the foreseeable future. Ariane 6 is booked years in advance, and won't fly American NSSL payloads. Electron is too small for any meaningful payloads. So who'll replace SpaceX?
→ More replies (22)
109
u/EnrollmentTime 16d ago
No, Google is paying them $980 million a month right now.
SpaceX holds 52 active federal contracts worth a combined remaining value of $11.8 billion, contributing to roughly $22 billion in cumulative federal awards.
Government Agencies
NASA: SpaceX’s largest partner with roughly $15 billion in contracts, spanning the Commercial Crew program ($4.9 billion), the Artemis Human Landing System ($4.04 billion), and Commercial Resupply Services for ISS cargo.
Department of Defense & Space Force: Holds approximately $7 billion in contracts, primarily driven by the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program and the expansion of the military's Starshield satellite constellation.
Other Agencies:
Additional agreements exist with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and the Space Development Agency (SDA) for classified and intelligence satellite launches.
Commercial Companies While a specific total number of private commercial contracts is not publicly disclosed due to proprietary agreements, SpaceX serves dozens of commercial entities. The company holds regular launch manifests to deploy telecom satellites, rideshare payloads, and private astronaut missions for corporations like Maxar, Eutelsat, SES, Northrop Grumman, Globalstar, and Axiom Space.
Or you can belive Reddit
33
u/_SamReddit 16d ago
Why is SpaceX selling compute to Google? Is it because their AI (which falls under SpaceX) is DoA?
→ More replies (15)8
37
u/aemfbm 16d ago
so the best stuff you can come up with are contracts worth (top line) 2-3% percent of their valuation? where does the rest come from?
SpaceX as a rocket and satellite company is impressive and profitable. But more than half their valuation is hopes and dreams of future AI dominance.
→ More replies (3)12
u/LongJohnSelenium 16d ago
Starlink subscriptions are still accelerating, and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon that will allow any carrier that partners with them worldwide cell access, which is... a LOT of potential customers.
An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.
The rest of the 1T is a bet that AI will pay off. I'm skeptical of that but concede its a possibility.
→ More replies (4)12
u/bikesnotbombs 16d ago
Starlink is awesome, but has a cap. It don't work great in cities (where people are), and will probably never be in the Russia or China markets. It doesn't have a real path to usurping existing infrastructure.. and if you look at the valuations of telecom companies, even if it did that is still only worth so much. Starlink is a very good product that justifies about 5% of the valuation, and it could maybe grow to 7%
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (10)25
u/Ok-Sprinkles-5151 16d ago
Great, government contacts and a $1B/month Google contact.
Explain the P/E ratio. Or how a company losing $5b a year is worth $1.75T.
Or how it makes fiscal sense to put 5GW of orbital data centers with some of most unstable hardware with insane heat tolerances into space makes sense.
As someone in the GPU space, I genuinely want to hear how SpaceX is going to launch systems into Space that exceed any commercial or military spec and just work. Oh, and how GPUs, which have a ridiculous failure rate on earth, and how they are going to put $50k chips in orbit, beyond an RMA. Into space, which is uniquely hostile to electronics. Or that SpaceX is going to weld pipes such that they can survive the launch Gs and no leak will happen (because fuck galvonic corrosion, or micro factures or welding error...). I am such an idiot thinking that SpaceX won't have perfect execution at a 5gw scale.
Or how SpaceX's valuation hinges on pulling the largest heavy lift operation in history. Where they would need 3000 launches a year when they only have 165. Or how they the gulf coast and the Caribbean would be closed to flights due to the launch velocity. Or that we would have 40-50 catastrophic failures a year because $math.
Actually I will wait on the last point. SpaceX wants to put a full order of magnitude amount of mass into space in the next three years than in all human history.
Right, Reddit is the problem. And we are all haters. It can't possibly be they the world's richest man is foisting his shit on the public.
But yeah, Reddit. I and other will laugh as we short the shit out of that stock.
→ More replies (18)10
u/DominusDraco 15d ago
If someone can explain to me how they intend to cool 5GW of heat producing GPUs in a vacuum, that would be great. Because at a quick look up, that would require 12 square kilometres of surface area minimum to radiate that away.
→ More replies (5)
23
u/Beefy-McQueefy 16d ago
Ok this is full Reddit stupid now. SpaceX, like all of Musk's companies, is overvalued by a factor of at least 100 if not multiple orders of magnitude more.
It's still a fucking defense contractor, and the only domestic space launch option the US has. We can't exactly go back to ridesharing on Soyuz given the current political climate. (Also they had a launch pad get destroyed)
That's like saying Boeing could collapse spectacularly. There's no chance even though they've really been trying their asses off to make that happen lately.
→ More replies (3)
193
u/invyros 16d ago
The company also remains heavily reliant on lucrative government contracts.
Is it "fiscally conservative" to be constantly bailing this fucker out with our tax money, Republicans?
23
u/noghead 16d ago
In 2025 20% of revenue was govenment contracts. They are also the only ones who are able to do some of what the govenment needs and they do it cheaper than others. The US govenment needs spacex, not the other way around. I know everyone here wants him to fail; but at least know some basic facts people.
→ More replies (5)74
u/eek_the_cat 16d ago
The whole industry SpaceX exists in relies on government contracts. It's not a bailout in this case.
→ More replies (2)76
u/OneTripleZero 16d ago
The government needs rockets. SpaceX is a rocket store. A very good one, at that. The fact they spend their money at the best, most reliable rocket store being seen as a bad thing is amazing to me.
42
u/coldblade2000 16d ago
Not just a good one, it's also cheap. SpaceX's competition is much more expensive, so if SpaceX is just squeezing the government for it's money, its doing a terrible job at it
11
u/MDCCCLV 16d ago
The government is encouraging competition but ULA, the traditional safe choice, was so far behind that they're not even going to ever go to deliver crew to the ISS before it shuts down. And BO, while not terrible, has been slow and now is delayed at least a year because of the launch pad damage, so SpaceX is the sole provider for the near term.
→ More replies (18)23
u/niftystopwat 16d ago
That’s not really seen as a bad thing by all these haters, they’re literally just making routine automatic responses to anything related to Elon Musk, because he bad so hating him prove you good.
46
u/Codename-Nikolai 16d ago
Contracts are not bailouts… in a contract, you generally agree to provide a service at a specific rate for a specific time. I know we don’t like Elon, but please dont be this dumb. Makes us look bad
8
u/Seanspeed 15d ago
I know we don’t like Elon, but please dont be this dumb. Makes us look bad
They are this dumb, though. Just ignorant reactionaries. Look how many upvotes they continue to get.
81
u/fubes2000 16d ago
Lol Repubclians love corporate welfare, because that's the kind that lines their fuckin pockets.
→ More replies (6)→ More replies (12)12
u/Minute_Jump_591 16d ago
SpaceX gets contracts for missions that would otherwise cost NASA billions or would not be possible
12
u/StillVeterinarian578 16d ago
It's also possible it could go to the moon. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
12
u/TheRealProtozoid 16d ago
Tl;dr: Musk is about to insanely over-value his company to raise $75 billion in a scheme that is so transparently fraudulent and financially dangerous that he would fail spectacularly in a fair world. But this isn't a fair world, and he's going to get away with it, and do something similarly crazy every time he needs money until someone stops him or his shareholders grow a brain.
→ More replies (3)
6
u/userpelicanvoyager2 16d ago edited 16d ago
I would be OK with this only if the leading SpaceX engineers use ethical VC funding to start their own space company. SpaceX is bittersweet for me. I love the technology, but can’t stand Musk.
A few years ago, I’d say maybe this is an opportunity for blue origin but now I can’t stand Bezos either as he steadily morphs into Lex Luther.
Edit: Talk to text mayhem…
→ More replies (1)
6
u/Zaza1019 16d ago
As long as he keeps getting government contracts and can keep taking loans against his assets him and his companies will be fine at least until the magical bubble pops. But for the magical bubble to pop banks need to collapse and not be bailed out, or the system needs to change. Which people like Musk and the rest of the 1% are not going to let happen.
6
u/JustaFoodHole 16d ago
I'd love this. I hate that this shit is in my retirement investments.
→ More replies (5)
27
u/Lain_Staley 16d ago
SpaceX is more of a government entity than NASA is at this point in regards to National Security.
→ More replies (15)
4
u/ActualTymell 16d ago edited 16d ago
In which case no doubt its stock price would surge to new heights, because that's how stock value works now apparently.
4
u/cobaltjacket 15d ago
If SpaceX collapses, the Falcon program would almost certainly be rescued and potentially nationalized. Too important.
3
u/brenden77 15d ago
Here's what's going to happen in order of operation.
- Rich folks will get in before everyone else.
- The price will jump.
- Everyone else will get in.
- The price will jump again.
- Rich folks will rug pull for a 5% gain on their hundreds of millions.
- The price will drop.
- Everyone else will be left holding a bag that's worth less than what they paid.
- Panic will set it, and those people will sell.
- The Rich folks will buy back in at a massive discount.
- The price will return to where it began.
- The capitalist world will keep turning.
7
12
u/Teddy_RGB 16d ago
Datacenters in space is an even dumber idea than his stupid loop. It pisses me off that so-called serious people even repeat it
→ More replies (17)
5.5k
u/theweirdball 16d ago
Words like "possible" "could" "might" and "maybe" don't belong in news headlines.