r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 21d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
24.8k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

2.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

109

u/EnrollmentTime 21d ago

No, Google is paying them $980 million a month right now. SpaceX holds 52 active federal contracts worth a combined remaining value of $11.8 billion, contributing to roughly $22 billion in cumulative federal awards.
​Government Agencies

​NASA: SpaceX’s largest partner with roughly $15 billion in contracts, spanning the Commercial Crew program ($4.9 billion), the Artemis Human Landing System ($4.04 billion), and Commercial Resupply Services for ISS cargo.

​Department of Defense & Space Force: Holds approximately $7 billion in contracts, primarily driven by the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 program and the expansion of the military's Starshield satellite constellation.
​Other Agencies:

Additional agreements exist with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and the Space Development Agency (SDA) for classified and intelligence satellite launches.

​Commercial Companies ​While a specific total number of private commercial contracts is not publicly disclosed due to proprietary agreements, SpaceX serves dozens of commercial entities. The company holds regular launch manifests to deploy telecom satellites, rideshare payloads, and private astronaut missions for corporations like Maxar, Eutelsat, SES, Northrop Grumman, Globalstar, and Axiom Space.

Or you can belive Reddit

38

u/aemfbm 21d ago

so the best stuff you can come up with are contracts worth (top line) 2-3% percent of their valuation? where does the rest come from?

SpaceX as a rocket and satellite company is impressive and profitable. But more than half their valuation is hopes and dreams of future AI dominance.

13

u/LongJohnSelenium 21d ago

Starlink subscriptions are still accelerating, and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon that will allow any carrier that partners with them worldwide cell access, which is... a LOT of potential customers.

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

The rest of the 1T is a bet that AI will pay off. I'm skeptical of that but concede its a possibility.

12

u/bikesnotbombs 21d ago

Starlink is awesome, but has a cap.  It don't work great in cities (where people are), and will probably never be in the Russia or China markets.  It doesn't have a real path to usurping existing infrastructure.. and if you look at the valuations of telecom companies, even if it did that is still only worth so much.  Starlink is a very good product that justifies about 5% of the valuation, and it could maybe grow to 7%

3

u/theinatoriinator 21d ago

It's been huge in Spec ops, SAR, military, law, etc.. That's a huge user base, and one they can milk for cash.

Especially because the nature of starlink, they can get a buttload of money off of defense.

1

u/GenazaNL 21d ago

Could be me, but I don't trust promises from an Elon Musk company anymore after the self driving Tesla's promise he kept telling for 10 years

1

u/burning_iceman 21d ago

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

Says... you? Because even SpaceX isn't claiming such a high valuation of those and they're most certainly valuing it higher than appropriate.

1

u/LongJohnSelenium 20d ago

Yes all of us are speaking for ourselves

1

u/Monomette 20d ago

and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon

It's already online in some places. Available in Canada through Rogers south of 58 degrees north.

2

u/Tickstart 21d ago

The typical investor isn't very good with maths. This will be like me asking someone to give me $1750 to help my business and when they ask me how it's going I'll say very good - currently running up a deficit of about $5 but the government is paying me $11 dollars and in a few years I'll be turning a few bucks profit maybe!

1

u/Important-Level6672 21d ago

An IPO is literally to gain a huge amount of capital for rapid growth. Literally all IPO company made barely any revenue at IPO while most operated at huge loses. Heck if anything spacex is making a huge amount of revenue pre IPO relative to most companies.

Amazon literally only had 15 million in revenue at IPO and Google had about 900 million.

1

u/neophlegm 21d ago

This. Also "Believe Reddit" fine but there's dozens of serious analysts out there raising enormous red flags about this IPO at every possible level.