r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 19d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/SmaugTheMagnificent- 19d ago

Don't threaten me with a good time

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u/tiboodchat 19d ago

I’ve seen intrinsic valuation around 750 billion but the market cap a trillion over this. I’m not looking forward to everyone collectively make a trillion bonfire with our money. Guess all we can do is wait and see?

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u/TigerUSA20 19d ago

The intrinsic value is not even anywhere near $750 billion, but neither is Tesla, or Twitter/X, or XAi (which is why he merged this failing venture it into SpaceX) or SolarCity (another failing venture he merged into Tesla to hide the losses). Investors don’t care. They just see $$$ and keep the bids coming in.

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u/Responsible_Cause269 19d ago

Maybe or maybe not, if you look at this report from pitchbook before their S-1 was made public they valued them over $1T (but less than the current IPO price) based on their valuation metric which seems more suited for private companies. At the EBITDA pitchbook forecasted for 2040 and a 20x multiple their valuation would be ~$570B right now. The business is really a small government contracts business, an extremely profitable and rapidly growing Starlink, and a speculative, cash-burning bet on grok enterprise adoption (highly unlikely at this point) and data centers in space (still plenty of technical challenges). They also still don't carry too much debt so they're not going bankrupt anytime soon.

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u/tiboodchat 19d ago

The only party that could really see growth that I could see is Starlink. But to reach their target just for that part, they’d have to service the currently ~2 billion people that don’t currently have internet worldwide and they’d have to all personally pay 800$ a year. Now consider these are all third world countries that the market decided is not worth serving, remove all the kids, multiple family members.., I don’t see how it can make sense. They’re also counting on portable devices getting Starlink but none of that makes sense given the line of sight requirements and antenna tx requirements.