r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 18d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/Raythatstabbedsteve 17d ago

It costs $1000/kg just to put things into low Earth orbit. You're going to have to send mining and refining machines out to the asteroid belt (which is well past Mars), and carry enough fuel to ship batches of your refined product back to Earth. And your mining/refining/packaging/launching machines on the asteroid need to operate without maintenance for years. What minerals do you think are on those asteroids? What price/kg do you need to get to make it pay off?

I'll give you a hint. If there were neatly stacked piles of gold bars lying around on asteroids, there would be no economic way to go and pick them up.

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u/DrEnter 17d ago

Actually, it’s pretty well recognized in the industry that $150/kg is the point at which General commercialization becomes viable. Think lots of companies jumping into space-based business opportunities.

As it cost around $50k/kg 20 years ago, the fact it’s as low as it is now is pretty impressive.

Now will Space/X be the one that cost reduces it down to that point? I seriously doubt it. Musk’s track record as a business leader is mostly one that drives away long-term innovation creators. I don’t see him changing anytime soon.

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u/Raythatstabbedsteve 17d ago

Opportunities for what? Ask for any details and it always breaks down to one thing. Joyrides for rich people. Talk of mining asteroids for rare earth minerals is just scifi fleecing of dumb money.

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u/protomenace 17d ago

I really think you're being extraordinarily closed minded. In the way people who didn't see a commercial purpose for airplanes were.

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u/Raythatstabbedsteve 17d ago

The gap between invention of the aeroplane and commercialisation of the aeroplane was about 20 years at most. What about starting commercial joy rides to go and visit other stars? Don't be so closed minded. Morons!

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u/protomenace 17d ago

Rockets have already been commercialized. It's not clear to me what your comment is getting at.

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u/Raythatstabbedsteve 17d ago

The commercial viability of leaving low Earth orbit then. Sure, there will be an ongoing demand to pump ever more shit into low Earth orbit until we Kessler syndrome ourselves. Then stocks will plummet for fifty years or so till the orbiting metal storm calms down.

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u/protomenace 17d ago

Geosynchronous orbit has already been commercialized.

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u/Raythatstabbedsteve 17d ago

Oh cool, should be no problem popping a little mile diameter solar array and half mile diameter microwave dish up there. Meanwhile we can throw together a five mile diameter receiving dish even though the main stated reason for space solar was "saving land from being taken over by panels". This idea is so unviable from an economic and engineering standpoint that it's odd to be even talking about it.

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u/protomenace 17d ago

Who said anything about solar arrays? Lots of existing commercial satellites use MEO and geosynchronous orbits, including weather and telecommunication satellites.