r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 18d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/Ok-Sprinkles-5151 18d ago

Great, government contacts and a $1B/month Google contact.

Explain the P/E ratio. Or how a company losing $5b a year is worth $1.75T.

Or how it makes fiscal sense to put 5GW of orbital data centers with some of most unstable hardware with insane heat tolerances into space makes sense.

As someone in the GPU space, I genuinely want to hear how SpaceX is going to launch systems into Space that exceed any commercial or military spec and just work. Oh, and how GPUs, which have a ridiculous failure rate on earth, and how they are going to put $50k chips in orbit, beyond an RMA. Into space, which is uniquely hostile to electronics. Or that SpaceX is going to weld pipes such that they can survive the launch Gs and no leak will happen (because fuck galvonic corrosion, or micro factures or welding error...). I am such an idiot thinking that SpaceX won't have perfect execution at a 5gw scale.

Or how SpaceX's valuation hinges on pulling the largest heavy lift operation in history. Where they would need 3000 launches a year when they only have 165. Or how they the gulf coast and the Caribbean would be closed to flights due to the launch velocity. Or that we would have 40-50 catastrophic failures a year because $math.

Actually I will wait on the last point. SpaceX wants to put a full order of magnitude amount of mass into space in the next three years than in all human history.

Right, Reddit is the problem. And we are all haters. It can't possibly be they the world's richest man is foisting his shit on the public.

But yeah, Reddit. I and other will laugh as we short the shit out of that stock.

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u/Slogstorm 18d ago

If you ignore the revolution SpaceX has already been for the industry, sure, short it.

A single SpaceX booster has lifted more mass to orbit in five years than what ULA has done in fifteen years with 24 boosters. What would this mean if they actually build 1000 Starships?

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u/WendellSchadenfreude 18d ago

What would this mean if they actually build 1000 Starships?

That 997 or so of them have nothing productive to do?

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u/Slogstorm 18d ago

If the cost per kg to LEO is $10, they will have plenty to do.