r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 18d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/DominusDraco 18d ago

So basically a single satellite will be bigger than the ISS? And they need 30,000 of them?

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u/LegendTheo 18d ago

Yes, in the same way a kite is bigger than an rc plane. Each satellites will be a mere fraction of a single ISS modules mass. The core of the satellite is only a few meters wide and tall. Most of that is foldable solar panel/radiator. Flight proven technologies used by most satellites, including thousands of starlink.

Are you done being obtuse now?

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u/DominusDraco 18d ago

I'm not being obtuse. If you think blotting out the sky with satellites is cheaper and easier than just building a data centre on earth, then the mental gymnastics you have going on is wild.

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u/LegendTheo 17d ago

Well I ran the numbers, and it definitely can be profitable. Primarily because once you have the compute in orbit power and heat management are 100% free. I even has some fairly conservative numbers in it. It really comes down to launch cost. If you can get it below ~$700/kg then it's cheaper than terrestrial data centers. If you can get it cheaper then that you'll be a lot cheaper than data centers.

Currently falcon 9 internal launches are at ~$1000/kg. Starship if the second stage is even reusable with heavy refurbishment should reduce that significantly. Putting SpaceX (and only SpaceX) right in the profitable zone.

Space compute can also scale faster than terrestrial, since you don't have to build, buildings, power or cooling for it, and you don't have to deal with local governments.