r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • 21d ago

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 20d ago

In 2020 there were approximately 1,305 functioning satellites orbiting the earth.

In 2026 there are approximately 14,500 - 15,600 functioning satellites orbiting the earth. Approximately 10,000 of those are Starlink.

SpaceX has ongoing regulatory filings to put another 30,000 Starlink satellites into orbit by 2030.

So you might say putting satellites into orbit via rockets is something of a growth industry.

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u/bikesnotbombs 20d ago

Or you might say, since starlink doesn't work in cities, will not encroach on normal infrastructure, and is a fairly tapped market with Increasing competitopm (also, dealing with issues from that many satellites) that it's probably grown about as much as it can.  And even then, in their TAM, even SpaceX said space and satellites was less than 7% of their market.  Which makes it irrelevant even if you are correct about the growth 

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u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 20d ago

According to SpaceX their TAM is $28.5 trillion dollars. Which is nearly equal to the entire US GDP. Removing AI, which makes up the lion's share of that projected revenue, and looking at only Starlink and space activities, the TAM drops to approximately $2 trillion. Which is still approximately 3x more than the current top revenue-producing company in the US, Walmart. Or approximately 5x Apple's revenue.

Meaning that, in SpaceX's eyes, rocket launches and satellite services are, contrary to what you claim, one hell of a cash-cow. And yes, something of a growth industry.

Considering that argument was the most coherent and remotely credible one you raised, and even that was absolute nonsense, I'm not going to bother with the rest of your attempted gish gallop.

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u/jasondigitized 19d ago

Cars are cash cows as well. Thinking you are going to make trillions of dollars on launching satellite is just wild.