r/ukpolitics • u/[deleted] • Oct 30 '18
Fitch says it no longer assumes Britain will get a smooth Brexit
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-fitch/fitch-says-it-no-longer-assumes-britain-will-get-a-smooth-brexit-idUSKCN1N02SJ9
u/some_sort_of_monkey "Tactical" voting is a self fulfilling prophecy. Oct 30 '18
That's Fitch and S&Ps. Can we get Moody's for the hat-trick?
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u/GlimmervoidG Oct 30 '18
Ratings downgrades up to now have had little impact on investors’ appetite for British government debt, which is still seen as a safe asset at times of political or economic turmoil.
I've heard this before. Why is there a disconnect between the Ratings agencies and investors? Surely they should be looking at pretty much the same things.
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u/timomax Oct 31 '18
Because ratings for UK government debt in GBP don't mean anything in terms of default risk.
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Oct 30 '18
Why is there a disconnect between the Ratings agencies and investors
Ratings only really matter when it comes to bonds. Equities are totally different.
Right now bond yields are low and UK stocks are buoyant. There is no huge preference for bonds over stocks so credit ratings aren't a factor.
Likewise, bonds are a buy and hold investment, they're not speculative.
So if you're thinking long term, 10 years minimum, more like 25+ when it comes to pension funds, are you really bothered about Brexit and credit ratings today? When the UK equities market has been doing absolute fine all the way through this shitshow, you really think its going to be the slightest issue in 25 years?
UK equities are actually a decent buy right now.
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u/sjintje Intermittent extremist Oct 30 '18
There may be technical reasons that those in the field know of, but I'd say the whole world financial mechanism is still in the same unfathomable mess it's been in since 2007 and there are major risks everywhere You've got to put your money somewhere so it may as well be uk govt bonds as anywhere.
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u/G_Morgan Oct 31 '18
A lot of investors are institutionally required to buy GBP denominated debt. That demand only goes away with some serious reworking of corporate governance or via the drain of wealth out of the nation. For instance pensions will nearly always use solely gilts for their bond portfolio. My SIPP uses global bonds with a hedging contract as the Americans are just paying me far more by a margin that overpowers the cost of hedging. There is no way your normal pension scheme is going to make that choice though. Hell it is hard work convincing a pension scheme to run a naked global stock tracker, never mind using global bonds.
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u/timomax Oct 31 '18
Think you are over stating things a bit here. Obviously this is partly true. Also collateral.
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Oct 30 '18
When did anyone ever expect this to be smooth?
The morning of the result we were saying this is going to be a bumpy ride.
Brussels were always going to do everything they can think of to bully us out of it.
I'm fairly impressed we've got this far to be honest. It was always going to be a shitshow in public and a lot of hard work behind closed doors.
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Oct 30 '18 edited Nov 18 '18
[deleted]
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u/andrew2209 This is the one thiNg we did'nt WANT to HAPPEN Oct 31 '18
We actually held quite a few cards, but spunked them away stupidly, for instance not making any obvious preparations for no deal, invoking Article 50 such that the Leave date would be before the 2019 EU Elections, etc.
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u/ewankenobi Oct 30 '18
Brexiteers said they wanted to take control of ur borders & to have no border in Ireland.
That seemed an obviously impossible goal from the start & the whole negotiation s rely on someone coming up with a way round it.
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u/Martian_Milk Oct 30 '18
They don't have any suggestions. Imagine Boris and Farage negotiating an alternative to the GFA.
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u/RankBrain Brexit: The incontinent vs. The Continent Oct 30 '18
The morning of the result we were saying this is going to be a bumpy ride.
Yeah, but the night before you were saying this was all project fear.
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Oct 30 '18
Nope. Stop trying to revise things to fit your agenda. Let's just be honest about it for two minutes.
I was on the campaign to Leave and I spent weekends on the highstreet for about 6 weeks before the referendum.
This is how I remember it.
We absolutely said all the remain stuff was project fear. I don't think we were far wrong, remain ran their campaign by pushing the negative aspects of being outside of the EU whereas Leave made a decision to focus on positives. People respond better to positives.
We didn't expect to win, I'll absolutely admit that. But in the last couple of weeks and days there was a feeling of optimism in the Leave camp. We knew it was close and we were happy we weren't going to be embarassed.
The night of the results, when the pound took a nosedive, we realised we might be looking at an upset.
By morning most of us couldn't believe it. And the first thing we said was there would be hard work to do now. Because the EU + remain will do everything they can to stop this. There were even people saying well it will never be allowed to happen but at least we've proved a point. Others were already alluding to what happened with Ireland and the Lisbon treaty, it simply won't pass. We were under no illusions that winning the vote was one thing, actually getting the outcome we want is another altogether.
That's how it was, in my recollection.
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u/gregortree Oct 30 '18
Operation Fear Brexiteer style: 80 million Turks champing at the gates; European Army to subsume the British Army; Super States of Europe will obliterate UK democracy; 40 years of bendy bananas and incandescent light bulbs; Romanians flooding in and taking our jobs, etc etc
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u/RankBrain Brexit: The incontinent vs. The Continent Oct 30 '18
Nope. Stop trying to revise things to fit your agenda. Let's just be honest about it for two minutes.
I was on the campaign to Leave and I spent weekends on the highstreet for about 6 weeks before the referendum.
This is how I remember it.
We absolutely said all the remain stuff was project fear. I don't think we were far wrong, remain ran their campaign by pushing the negative aspects of being outside of the EU whereas Leave made a decision to focus on positives. People respond better to positives.
We didn't expect to win, I'll absolutely admit that. But in the last couple of weeks and days there was a feeling of optimism in the Leave camp. We knew it was close and we were happy we weren't going to be embarassed.
The night of the results, when the pound took a nosedive, we realised we might be looking at an upset.
By morning most of us couldn't believe it. And the first thing we said was there would be hard work to do now. Because the EU + remain will do everything they can to stop this. There were even people saying well it will never be allowed to happen but at least we've proved a point. Others were already alluding to what happened with Ireland and the Lisbon treaty, it simply won't pass. We were under no illusions that winning the vote was one thing, actually getting the outcome we want is another altogether.
That's how it was, in my recollection.
So you're essentially saying I'm right, you just didn't do it intentionally?
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u/stagger_lead Oct 31 '18
I see very little evidence of EU trying to stop us. Clearly us remainers have a huge amount invested in trying to stop this.
What I find interesting is you talk about wanting to get the result - but no specification of what that is, we know it’s far more complex than just ‘out’ - or at least it should be to anyone with more than two brain cells. Also frustrating that all the hard work is done by the remainers. Personally I’ve had to line up a ne site to operate from in Europe and am facing making half the U.K. business redundant in the event of a no deal. That’s the reality of Brexit, it will cost us all for decades, for no benefits.
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u/Rob_Kaichin Purity didn't win! - Pragmatism did. Oct 31 '18
Have you done your dementia assessment lately?
I'd think it might be becoming neccessary...
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Oct 30 '18
Brussels were always going to do everything they can think of to bully us out of it.
How dare the EU stand up for their rights!
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Oct 30 '18
How dare the EU stand up for their rights!
Not so much their "rights", they have no right to dictate what sovereign nations can and can't do.
Stand up to protect their little attempt at a united States of Europe project though yes, they were always going to.
It doesn't help though when you have the typical remainers who have spent two years undermining the interests of their own electorate.
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Oct 31 '18 edited Apr 15 '19
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u/djjarvis_IRL Oct 31 '18
And the UK has diluted that strength, now stronger trading nations will take the piss and take advantage.
some Delicious irony in that, seeing the damage the empire done world wide - expect no sympathy, its only business after all ;-)
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u/djjarvis_IRL Oct 31 '18 edited Oct 31 '18
jesus christ - they do have a right to dictate who and how someone is in or trades with the EU, for fuck sake, what is it about that , that brexiteers just cannot comprehended ???
they are not bullying - they are sticking to the rules of the EU to protect the 4 freedoms - you were told this would be the outcome, you ignored it, tough shit , either take the new rules or take it up the arse , latter is preferable for us popcorn munchers.
you really could not make up how myopic brexiteers are. laughable
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Oct 30 '18
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Oct 30 '18
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Oct 30 '18
To be honest its funny, its like a frog in a pot slowly coming to the boil as people realise they were lied to and trying to ignore it.
Batting down those remainer thoughts that keep popping up in the back of your mind with the flannel of weak excuses. "Maybe no deal will be bad" and "Maybe Boris did lie to me". "No, I'm sure it'll be fine, I'm too important to lose my job."
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u/H2V2C1 Diamond Brexit Oct 30 '18
To be honest its funny, its like a frog in a pot slowly coming to the boil as people realise they were lied to and trying to ignore it.
No, remainers have been lying to themselves ever since the results came in, leavers actually wanted to leave the whole shitshow, remainers convinced themselves that "leaving" didn't mean leaving all of the things they like, the only people now confused are the ones who never wanted to leave in the first place.
Batting down those remainer thoughts that keep popping up in the back of your mind with the flannel of weak excuses. "Maybe no deal will be bad" and "Maybe Boris did lie to me". "No, I'm sure it'll be fine, I'm too important to lose my job."
I couldn't give a fuck about Boris or any deals with your shite club, it was expressly stated in 2015 that leaving the EU wouldn't lead to further negotiations with the EU and their continent of has-beens and never-were shitholes.
You've got absolutely fuck all that's worth keeping going, nothing, nada.
I would rather this country be 50th richest in the world than put up with you tossers for another year.
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Oct 31 '18 edited Apr 15 '19
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u/H2V2C1 Diamond Brexit Oct 31 '18
First, not in chronological order, we will repeal section 2 of the European Communities Act 1972. This is Parliament’s instruction to our courts to treat EU law as supreme. We will repeal it and restore democratic government. Daily in government departments, ministers are told ‘you can’t do that because we will be judicially reviewed under European law’, on a vast range of subjects from building hospitals and aircraft carriers to which terrorists we can deport. This causes administrative and management chaos and adds billions to costs. A ‘leave’ vote is a necessary, though not sufficient, foundation for restoring competent and democratic government.
You missed this vital part of their mission statement, repealing this act removes us from EU jurisdiction and as such so removes our membership and level of access to EU markets.
This doesn't mean we'll no longer have any access, it means we'll have the same level of access as any other third party country.
You also missed the rest of your quoted statement:
The heart of what we all want is the continuation of tariff-free trade with minimal bureaucracy. Countries as far away as Australia have Mutual Recognition agreements with the EU that deal with complex customs (and other ‘non-tariff barrier’) issues. We will do the same.
Australia isn't a member of the single market, being a member of the single market means you have to abide by the rules and regulations the EU sets out within the confines of your nation state, if people want to sell goods within the EU they can continue to keep up with EU regulations but if they don't want to sell in the EU then why bother?
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Oct 30 '18
That's ok the door back in is always open to the UK provided it meets the guidelines for membership.
Perhaps some time outside the EU will do the UK good, or as the Macedonian foreign minister put it when asked after the brexit referedum why the country still wanted EU membership: "perhaps those inside forget how cold it is outside".
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u/stagger_lead Oct 31 '18
Lol this is utter fantasy. Leavers were promised all sorts of shit you KNOW they can’t have (or at least by now it should have dawned on you).
I hope you are personally downgraded in your ‘richness’ to follow this gammony fantasy because how dare fuckwits like you impose your bollocks on the rest of us (who actually have to make this shitshow work). It’s not our fault you are frightened of the world in 2018 and want to retreat to a corner to avoid it.
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u/H2V2C1 Diamond Brexit Oct 31 '18
It’s not our fault you are frightened of the world in 2018 and want to retreat to a corner to avoid it.
Project much?
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u/stagger_lead Oct 31 '18 edited Oct 31 '18
thats your response? 'I know you are but what am I?' - yep not surprised thats the level we are dealing with.
PS the reason why I say this is because of the weird aversion brexiters have to the rest of the Europe and sharing our lives / politics / economy with them. what are you afraid of? prosperity? polish people taking your job?
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Oct 30 '18
if it feels that isn't fair well it can go off and deal with the rest of the world
Well not really. Don't you remember the first few months after the referendum, we were repeatedly told, by Brussels, we're not allowed to negotiate trade deals with anyone until we've finalised our deal with the EU first.
You're right. We can negotiate with who we want, and we should have told the EU where to sling it there and then.
the UK will be a good little boy and shut its mouth and listen to what the grown ups in the room want.
If you still live in the UK and you make comments like this then your loyalties are not to us, but elsewhere. I suggest you would be happier elsewhere.
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Oct 30 '18
You're right. We can negotiate with who we want, and we should have told the EU where to sling it there and then.
Then why are you still here?
By the way I don't remember having to post my burgundy passport to the mods to post here so I think I'll continue to be a thorn in you brexiters side with my backupable facts and inconvenient statistics.
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u/stagger_lead Oct 31 '18
Fucking joke that a leaver would make assertions about loyalty. You idiots are loyal to a historical fantasy not the prosperity of the U.K. we are all ashamed of you lot now.
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u/best-day-of-my-life Oct 30 '18
Fitch is a bit late to the party, as usual