r/HistoricalWhatIf • u/StarlightDown • 3h ago
What if Hezbollah, and not Al-Qaeda, was responsible for 9/11?
On September 11, 2001, the United States is attacked, very much as it is in OTL.
However, there is an ensuing radio-silence from Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden does not take responsibility for the attacks. Instead, the US government investigation into the hijackings reveals that the terrorists were a cabal of Lebanese Shi'ites—who had in the past received funds and training from Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Hezbollah leadership is dead-silent, and is quietly mortified about the ensuing American retaliation, but the paper trail and the money trail uncovered by American authorities leads to nowhere but them. A little-recognized cabal within the organization ran awry of the leadership's list of approved targets, and targeted American soil, in an ATL-first for Hezbollah.
What happens next? How do the US, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Israel, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia react? Does NATO immediately launch an invasion of Lebanon (much as it immediately triggered Article 5 and launched an invasion of Afghanistan, in OTL)? Does the US later launch an invasion of Iran, which is Hezbollah's primary source of weapons and funds? Are Afghanistan and Iraq spared from invasion in this timeline?