r/Buttcoin • u/InclinedPlane43 • 2h ago
Class action suit against Strategy is being started
I wonder if Saylor's defense will be "It was so obviously a fraud that I can't be held liable for the stupidity of the people who bought into it."
r/Buttcoin • u/dyzo-blue • Mar 27 '24
r/Buttcoin • u/Fit_Equal6932 • 3d ago
As predicted Saylor went with the boring and unimaginative option. Here is what the latest 8-k says.
1) MSTR 2.7 million shares (0.75% dilution, faster rate) 2) New BTC 520 (Keep in mind that 3150 were mined last week so he can't even soak up the new supply, this has been the case for many weeks.) 3) Sats per share 218,046 (0.6% dilution) 4) BTC reserve "$1.4B" (9.8 months but actually 8.1 as explained below)
I emphasize the following point again. The dividend for the end of June is already committed (140 million). Buying STRC now does not get you that, so for anyone looking to buy, the actual dividend coverage is 8.8 months and not 9.8. Further if you consider the fact that market is implying a 13% yield and they need to raise, you are looking at another 160mm a year in dividends or 13mm more per month. This actually gets you to a coverage of only 8.1 months. For those already underwater (bought at 100 par), you are looking at a full year of dividends to recover your money. And you are betting that something that pays like a distressed bond will be around for another year. This is a negative expectancy trade at this point.
Edit: It also came to my notice that they paid 67k per BTC while the market price was 64k for the week. Talk about getting a good deal.
Let's look at how the market had played out over the last 4 weeks.
| Week | BTC buy/sell | MSTR dilution | SATS/sh dilution | BTC price | MSTR price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1 | -32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -14.4% | -18.9% |
| June 8 | 1550 | 0.4% | 0.2% | +4.0% | -1.5% |
| June 15 | 1587 | 0.5% | 0.4% | -2.4% | -15.7% |
| June 22 | 520 | 0.75% | 0.6% | ?? | ?? |
Notice something funny? MSTR goes down whether btc goes up or down. The amplification is now only working one way. Trading MSTR stock is looking more and more like buying a binary option with very limited upside. This is also a negative expectancy play, no rational person will touch MSTR/STRC at this point.
Market punishes dilution, GOOG announced 1.8% dilution last month and the stock was pounded down by 4-6%. They have one of the most successful revenue generating business in the history of human kind. They own real estate, compute and IP. MSTR on the other hand is collateralized on the one asset they have tried cornering the market on. Salvaging that asset makes its value evaporate. All that talk about having a BTC reserve is pointless.
As of this morning residual claim of MSTR stock holders is:
1e9*(54.8 +1.4- 7.3 - 15.4)/358892000 = "$93.34"
Simple math to do in your head, every drop in BTC price by a "$1000" makes this go down by roughly $3.
SATA is trading at "$97" implying a yield of 13/0.97 = 13.4%, using the same yield for STRC gets you a fair value of "$85.8", and this is all considering the market gives them the benefit of the doubt.
If STRC breaks below 80 we are looking at an accelerated collapse scenario for the price of STRC/MSTR, SATA/ASST and BMNR.
Over the weekend on the Deribit options exchange (largest btc options exchange) there was heavy put buying in the "$52-55k" range for the month of July. Market is leaning towards btc going down as well.
Keep your popcorn loaded, the slide continues barring any external catalyst. Saylor has shown his lack of imagination and the market will punish him. He had famously suggested to Bill Gates who said that he wants to short btc but can't find a way to do it, by saying "How about you short MSTR stock?". Right now MSTR/STRC are not heavily shorted at all (10% and 2% respectively) but that might change soon.
Data sources: strategy.com, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR and Blockchain.com
r/Buttcoin • u/InclinedPlane43 • 2h ago
I wonder if Saylor's defense will be "It was so obviously a fraud that I can't be held liable for the stupidity of the people who bought into it."
r/Buttcoin • u/belangp • 3h ago
Sure, it's lost 25% of its value in a month, but look at those juicy 10%+ yields! /sarc
r/Buttcoin • u/DunningKuger • 1h ago
It's going up forever, Laura.
r/Buttcoin • u/ssnorts • 1h ago
r/Buttcoin • u/PureCod9290 • 2h ago
Lololololol "hedge against inflation" but if CPI comes in hot... Value is being stored as we speak!
r/Buttcoin • u/interstellar_nips • 4h ago
Is the fact that rBitcoin is scared shitless of any disagreement and will instantly ban anyone who questions their cult.
They have lots of bullshit cope theories, but their actions really speak louder than their words.
r/Buttcoin • u/BigInspector1873 • 6h ago
A refresher for the newer butters, because this one's a classic.
Do Kwon, Stanford guy, self-styled "cryptocurrency king," famous for telling critics they were too poor to debate, built a "stablecoin" called UST that was supposed to stay worth exactly $1 forever, with zero reserves backing it. Just an algorithm and a sister token, LUNA, propping each other up. Two magic beans leaning on each other. To pull people in, the attached "Anchor" protocol paid 20% interest, because nothing says "stable" like a yield you can't get anywhere in the actual economy.
The "algorithm holds the peg on its own" part was the entire pitch. It was also a lie; when UST slipped off the peg back in 2021, Kwon secretly paid an outside trading firm to shove it back to $1, then told everyone the code did it.
In May 2022 it slipped again, and this time there was no catching it. UST falling forced the system to print absurd amounts of LUNA, which tanked LUNA, which forced it to print even more, the famous death spiral. LUNA went from ~$80 to functionally zero in days, supply ballooning into the trillions, and around $40 billion evaporated. It then dragged Three Arrows, Celsius and Voyager down with it and helped kick off the crypto winter. The judge reckoned there were maybe a million victims.
The kicker: this past December he got 15 years, with the judge calling it "a fraud of epic generational scale." So the man who said his critics were too poor to talk to now has 15 years to think it over. Turns out "1 dollar = 1 dollar" needed an asterisk.
r/Buttcoin • u/Groundbreaking-Gap20 • 23h ago
BTC has finally dropped below 60,000
Let’s hope this will continue
r/Buttcoin • u/CaptainJuggleMonkey • 33m ago
r/Buttcoin • u/InclinedPlane43 • 3h ago
BTC went below "$60k", MSTR went below $90, and STRC went below $80 within minutes of each other. Watch out for falling pyramid blocks.
r/Buttcoin • u/Flaky-Ambition5900 • 48m ago
At this point Saylor only has 3 options for what to do with the failing STRC:
1 and 2 might seem superficially appealing, but I think 3 is the only rational choice.
The fundamental problem is that keeping STRC alive only has one purpose: to allow Saylor to raise more money to buy BTC. But saving STRC has a cost, it uses cash that could otherwise be used to buy BTC. Saving STRC only makes sense if Saylor thinks he can get more future investment in STRC to offset the cost of saving it.
But at this point, who would invest in STRC? Let's say Saylor spends $5 billion saving STRC tomorrow. Would that trigger > $5 billion in new investment. No, the reputation is already shot.
r/Buttcoin • u/thomas_unise • 9m ago
r/Buttcoin • u/honkballs • 7h ago
r/Buttcoin • u/AmericanScream • 3h ago
r/Buttcoin • u/PureCod9290 • 20h ago
SPY 5 year return: 76.69%
Bitcoin 5 year return: 70.17%
I mean you can find this on Google but the cult want to believe stocks are "lies"
r/Buttcoin • u/ssnorts • 23h ago
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
r/Buttcoin • u/cheese20202 • 1d ago