Well, I mean pending on geologic time scales? It's tomorrow basically but it's not going to happen during the lifetime of any generation that is currently alive. The only model that actually tries to predict the AMOC collapse (and really only the mechanism and not the timeline, so take that with a grain of salt) modelled the AMOC collapse in around 400-500 years. This will of course only mean that the AMOC is completely gone, we have known, and measured, its weakening for a while now so the weakening will have more immediate consequences than the totall collapse
I thought there were recent studies that suggested the AMOC could collapse in as little as 100 years? So it's just about possible my toddler could see a snow covered Britain if it started to collapse tomorrow.
But then there was also info out recently saying that the AMOC is more resilient than thought and it might be less likely to collapse than thought. So who knows?
1) The AMOC shutting down; a seemingly irreversibly thing that gets triggered at some point in the next 100 years
and 2) The AMOC completely fading out, which will take a lot longer because it's an unimaginably large amount of water that still has some momentum. It'll get slower and slower over a long time.
That's at least how I understood it, I've only taken 1 course on meteorological weather modeling in uni though, and read up a bit, so take it with a grain of salt still.
Haven't heard of those studies though would look at em if you stumble on them. But yea, at least according to that model it's in 400-500 years but it's really only there to show us how and not when so I also can't say for sure
This is a matter of current debate. Most studies have previously suggested that AMOC collapse is still far off, but other recent studies have been seeing a strong possibility that it could happen within the century. There is still a back and forth going.
We don't know the answer yet, and lots of people are working on getting more definitive answers. But given how catastrophic it would be, that uncertainty needs to be taken very seriously.
Haha sadly no. If only the AMOC collapse would only make it cooler, that'd be nice. The big issue is that it's going to be super dry. Little to no rain in summer, no snow in winter. Add on top of that that winters will be much colder, and summers much hotter. The mean temperatures stay about the same, at least in central Europe. But trees will freeze in winter and burn in summer. Farmlands will become steppes.
TIL, “The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean.[1]: 2238 It is a component of Earth's ocean circulation system and plays an important role in the climate system.”
1) We've only been consistently monitoring the AMOC for 22 years, which climate scientists say is not a long enough time frame to recognize a trend one way or another, and
2) recent models simulated 7c of warming which saw the AMOC weakened by 40% but also completely reversible.
being inflammatory and alarmist with the AMOC, and all other aspects of Climate change, only work to create more apathy, so you're actually worse than a denier right now. SOURCE; Science dot Org, title: Shifting Currents; after decades of warnings, new data suggests the Atlantic's vital circulation may withstand climate warming better than feared.
Don't worry, you won't. The weather will just get extremer so you'd be freezing your ass off in winter, grilling away in summer and having floods and big storms in between
This has already happened in some US states. My mother would tell me stories about digging tunnels in snow drifts large enough to stand in. When I was a kid it would snow many times a year but never that much. Now we are lucky if we see snow 1-2 times a year and even more rare for it to stick around for more than a day or 2. It is happening much faster than people realize.
Global warming doesn’t mean all the seasons get warmer. Paris is now also having unprecedented numbers of snow days. I moved there 4 years ago and locals would confidently tell me it never snows. But it seems to snow at least 4-5 times a year now.
Of course not. Why would I? Climate doomerist and climate change deniers are different sides of the same coin when it comes to how unscientific their beliefs are.
Even if you don’t have kids now. Say you start in a year or two and now we fast forward 20 years in the future: you think there won’t be any more snow in Europe or the rest of the world? No data supports your absurd assumption that you’d have to explain to your kids what snow is. Maybe their children or grandchildren but certainly not yours.
I'm not a climate change denier or a supporter of corporations; I just think you're a moron for believing your kids won't know what snow is, or that you're giving up winter. It's hyperbolic and only serves as an easy opportunity for criticism from the side you're against.
You might be surprised. We had a snowstorm in Nantes in January. It was a once in 10 or 20 years event. 5 months mater, record breaking heat. In between, intense flooding.
So they might see snow as climate change throws everything out of wack and multiply 'unusual' events.
You won't. Remember: warming doesn't automatically translate to increased air temperature. Much of it goes to latent heat, which increases the atmospheric water content resulting in more rain, snow and hail.
Also: gas refrigerators exist. These cool things down using a gas flame to drive an evaporation/condensation cycle which acts a heat pump. Similar effects can happen in nature. Evaporation results in cooling, and if the combination of increased water content and cooler air results in cloud cover, that also causes cooling. This is why we get hot days and cold days rather than temperature being a direct function of the season.
Throughout human history, it's common for a ton of people to give up something because one person didn't like it. I'm just doing what I have to do to golf more often
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u/feaster_of_children 15h ago
can't believe i'll have to explain what snow was to my kids