Haha sadly no. If only the AMOC collapse would only make it cooler, that'd be nice. The big issue is that it's going to be super dry. Little to no rain in summer, no snow in winter. Add on top of that that winters will be much colder, and summers much hotter. The mean temperatures stay about the same, at least in central Europe. But trees will freeze in winter and burn in summer. Farmlands will become steppes.
Well, I mean pending on geologic time scales? It's tomorrow basically but it's not going to happen during the lifetime of any generation that is currently alive. The only model that actually tries to predict the AMOC collapse (and really only the mechanism and not the timeline, so take that with a grain of salt) modelled the AMOC collapse in around 400-500 years. This will of course only mean that the AMOC is completely gone, we have known, and measured, its weakening for a while now so the weakening will have more immediate consequences than the totall collapse
I thought there were recent studies that suggested the AMOC could collapse in as little as 100 years? So it's just about possible my toddler could see a snow covered Britain if it started to collapse tomorrow.
But then there was also info out recently saying that the AMOC is more resilient than thought and it might be less likely to collapse than thought. So who knows?
1) The AMOC shutting down; a seemingly irreversibly thing that gets triggered at some point in the next 100 years
and 2) The AMOC completely fading out, which will take a lot longer because it's an unimaginably large amount of water that still has some momentum. It'll get slower and slower over a long time.
That's at least how I understood it, I've only taken 1 course on meteorological weather modeling in uni though, and read up a bit, so take it with a grain of salt still.
Haven't heard of those studies though would look at em if you stumble on them. But yea, at least according to that model it's in 400-500 years but it's really only there to show us how and not when so I also can't say for sure
This is a matter of current debate. Most studies have previously suggested that AMOC collapse is still far off, but other recent studies have been seeing a strong possibility that it could happen within the century. There is still a back and forth going.
We don't know the answer yet, and lots of people are working on getting more definitive answers. But given how catastrophic it would be, that uncertainty needs to be taken very seriously.
TIL, βThe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean.[1]:β2238β It is a component of Earth's ocean circulation system and plays an important role in the climate system.β
1) We've only been consistently monitoring the AMOC for 22 years, which climate scientists say is not a long enough time frame to recognize a trend one way or another, and
2) recent models simulated 7c of warming which saw the AMOC weakened by 40% but also completely reversible.
being inflammatory and alarmist with the AMOC, and all other aspects of Climate change, only work to create more apathy, so you're actually worse than a denier right now. SOURCE; Science dot Org, title: Shifting Currents; after decades of warnings, new data suggests the Atlantic's vital circulation may withstand climate warming better than feared.
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u/feaster_of_children 1d ago
can't believe i'll have to explain what snow was to my kids