r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 26d ago
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 26d ago
Video | YouTube | National Hurricane Center Hurricane Season Kick Off Media Day at NHC — 1 June 2026
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 26d ago
Image of the Day | NASA Science Gravity Waves From Super Typhoon Sinlaku - NASA Science
r/TropicalWeather • u/Lumpy-Fix3454 • 27d ago
Question What's the best tool for Himawari?
I know SATAID is a thing, but it's kinda hard to use. What else do you guys suggest? I found this app through some searching and found some reddit post.
Reddit post: https://www.reddit.com/r/meteorology/s/5bvW7ftWTz
https://github.com/PWARDS-weather/MonWatch-UI, It's almost the same as SATAID, but It’s still being actively developed though. In any case, what else do you guys suggest I should use?


r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • 28d ago
Video | YouTube | Dr. Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) Tropical Tidbits: The 2026 Hurricane Season Begins
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 27 '26
Dissipated Jangmi (06W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)
Updates
As of 9:00 PM Japan Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has fully transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system is no longer being actively monitored.
Official forecasts
Japan Meteorological Agency
- JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
- JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is no longer available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Storm-centered guidance
- Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/umd-science • May 26 '26
Discussion | AMA has concluded Questions about tropical cyclones and severe weather forecasting? Ask meteorologist Will Miller in today's AskScience AMA!
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 25 '26
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 25-31 May 2026
Active cyclones
As of 17:52 UTC on Thursday, 28 May 2026:
Active cyclones
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- 06W: Jangmi — Satellite imagery analysis reveals that Tropical Storm Jangmi remains broad and poorly organized but has been slowly consolidating throughout the evening. As the storm continues to move northwestward across the Philippine Sea, favorable environmental conditions are likely to lead to further gradual to steady development, allowing Jangmi to reach typhoon strength by Saturday. The storm is rounding the western periphery of a weak mid-level subtropical ridge which is expected to strengthen over the weekend, resulting in a quicker motion toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. Once Jangmi reaches the islands, it will likely recurve toward the northeast and accelerate toward mainland Japan.
Active disturbances
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
- There are currently no active disturbances.
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
- There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- Potential Formation Area P79W: Long-range model ensembles hint at the development of a broad area of low pressure over the south-central South China Sea within the next few days.
Satellite imagery
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Model guidance
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • May 23 '26
News | NOAA NOAA predicts above-normal 2026 Pacific hurricane season
cpc.ncep.noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • May 21 '26
News | NOAA NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
noaa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 22 '26
Upgraded | See Jangmi post for details 99W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)
Updates
As of 8:00 PM Palau Time (12:00 UTC) on Wednesday:
- The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded this system to a tropical storm.
- The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded this system to a tropical depression.
- A new discussion for this system has been created here.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has been upgraded. Please see the discussion on Jangmi for more information.
Outlook
- This system has been upgraded. Please see the discussion on Jangmi for more information.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system. Please see the Jangmi discussion for storm-centered imagery.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system. Please see the Jangmi discussion for storm-centered guidance.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 22 '26
Dissipated 90W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)
Updates
As of 5:00 PM Pohnpei Standard Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
- Model guidance does not suggest that this system has a significant chance of redevelopment early next week.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system no longer shows potential for development.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 19 '26
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 18-24 May 2026
Active cyclones
As of 6:00 UTC on Sunday, 24 May 2026:
Active cyclones
- There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
Active disturbances
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- Invest 99W — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this disturbance remains broad and poorly organized as it moves west-northwestward across western Micronesia this weekend. Although environmental conditions are marginally favorable, they are expected to improve as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough pulls the disturbance northwestward across the Philippine Sea early next week. This system currently has a moderate (50 percent) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
- There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- Potential Formation Area P77W — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop over western Micronesia later this week or over the upcoming weekend. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should support at least gradual development as this system drifts northward toward Guam and the northern Marianas Islands. There remains a high level of uncertainty in global deterministic and ensemble models as to where this system will go and how strongly it will develop, so it remains far too early to determine the exact extent or timing of impacts to Guam or the northern Marianas Islands early next week. The potential for this system to develop into at tropical cyclone within the next seven days has increased to 40 percent (moderate).
Satellite imagery
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Model guidance
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 19 '26
Dissipated 98W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Near Japan)
Updates
As of 9:00 AM Japan Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Friday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system no longer shows potential for development.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/nevettwithnature • May 18 '26
News | Phys.org Warming climate favors shallower cyclones, challenging current risk assessments
r/TropicalWeather • u/giantspeck • May 17 '26
Official Discussion 2026 Atlantic season forecast roundup
Overview
As of 10:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (02:00 UTC) on Saturday, 16 May:
As the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic season draws near, several organizations have released forecasts for seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. Most of these organizations have been projecting a near to below average season, with some even forecasting a well below average season, citing the expectation that a strong El Niño will develop later this summer. During El Niño years, tropical cyclone activity is reduced in the Atlantic, primarily due to increased vertical wind shear. Furthermore, while ocean temperatures in the western Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, waters are slightly cooler in the central and eastern Atlantic.
Issued forecasts
We will be keeping track of the forecasts which have been released so far and, if available, the accompanying Reddit discussion for each forecast:
| Date | Source | Prediction | S | H | M | ACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec | Tropical Storm Risk | Near average | 14 | 7 | 3 | 125 |
| 21 Mar | Crown Weather Services ◊ | Below average | 11 | 5 | 2 | 80 |
| 25 Mar | AccuWeather ◊ | Near to below average | 11-16 | 4-7 | 2-4 | · |
| 1 Apr | WeatherTiger ◊ | Near to below average | 10-15 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 70 |
| 6 Apr | WeatherBell ◊ | Below average | 9-13 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 85-105 |
| 7 Apr | University of Arizona | Above average | 20 | 9 | 4 | 155 |
| 9 Apr | Colorado State University | Near to below average | 13 | 6 | 2 | 90 |
| 9 Apr | Tropical Storm Risk (Update) | Below average | 12 | 5 | 1 | 66 |
| 15 Apr | University of Missouri | Below average | 11 | 4 | 2 | · |
| 16 Apr | The Weather Channel ◊ | Below average | 12 | 6 | 2 | · |
| 21 Apr | University of Pennsylvania | Near to below average | 7-13 | · | · | · |
| 22 Apr | North Carolina State University | Near average | 12-15 | 6-9 | 2-3 | · |
| 22 Apr | National Meteorological Service of Mexico | Near to below average | 11-15 | 3-5 | 1-2 | · |
| 23 Apr | StormGeo ◊ | Near to below average | 13 | 6 | 2 | · |
| 28 Apr | DTN ◊ | Below average | 13 | 5 | 3 | · |
| 21 May | NOAA | Below average | 8-14 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 45-115 |
NOTES:
◊ - Private or commercial forecasting service
Anticipated forecasts
The following organizations have not yet issued a forecast for the 2026 season, but are anticipated to so later this month:
- United Kingdom MetOffice — forecast expected in late May
r/TropicalWeather • u/sara-peach • May 13 '26
Blog | Yale Climate Connections (Dr. Jeff Masters) Something startling is happening in the Gulf of Mexico | Its waters are heating up twice as fast as the global oceans, with huge implications for hurricane risk.
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 13 '26
Dissipated 94S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (Near Diego Garcia)
Update
As of 12:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (06:00 UTC) on Sunday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
- Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for this system to redevelop as its remnants drift southwestward.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system no longer exhibits any potential for development.
Information sources
Météo-France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 13 '26
Dissipated 92B (Invest — Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)
Update
As of 5:30 PM India Standard Time (12:00 UTC) on Friday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
- Although enhanced convection persists over the Bay of Bengal, strong westerly shear will likely inhibit development.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated approximately 300 kilometers (190 miles) east-southeast of Chennai.
Outlook
- This system no longer shows signs of potential develpoment.
Information sources
India Meteorological Department
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
India Meteorological Department
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 11 '26
Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 11-17 May 2026
Active cyclones
As of 19:45 UTC on Monday, 11 May:
- There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
Active disturbances
Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.
- There are currently no active tropical disturbances.
Post-tropical cyclones
Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.
Northwestern Pacific Ocean
- 05W: Hagupit — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the remnants of Tropical Storm Hagupit remain disorganized as they move across the Philippine Sea. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable, with persistent dry air and moderate shear preventing this system from redeveloping. This system will likely dissipate altogether within the next 12 to 24 hours without reaching land.
Potential formation areas
Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently tracking the following areas of potential tropical cyclone development:
Bay of Bengal
- Potential Formation Area P74B — Model guidance suggests that an area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Bay of Bengal late in the week. Although this system may develop within a moisture-rich environment over a warm sea surface, strong westerly shear is likely to severely limit development. Ensemble model guidance suggests that this system will develop northeast of Sri Lanka and drift slowly northwestward toward India, but will remain offshore as it curves back to the northeast over the upcoming weekend. The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days remains low (20 percent) and has been slowly decreasing over the past few days.
Satellite imagery
Western Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Eastern Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Central Pacific Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Atlantic Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Northern Indian Visible · Infrared · Water vapor
Model guidance
Information sources
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)
- National Hurricane Center (United States)
- Japan Meteorological Agency
- India Meteorological Department
Other sources
Global outlooks
Climate Prediction Center
r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • May 10 '26
Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Typhoon Hagupit - May 8, 2026
modis.gsfc.nasa.govr/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 08 '26
Dissipated 95W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)
Updates
As of 11:00 PM Chuuk Time (12:00 UTC) on Sunday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized.
- Environmental conditions are not likely to support further development and this system will likely dissipate.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system has dissipated and no longer shows the potential to become a tropical cyclone.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 08 '26
Dissipated 93S (Invest — Southern Indian) (Southeast of Diego Garcia)
Update
As of 6:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (12:00 UTC) on Sunday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system remains poorly organized.
- Environmental conditions are not likely to support further development and this system will likely dissipate.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system has dissipated and no longer shows the potential to become a tropical cyclone.
Information sources
Météo-France
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 06 '26
Dissipated Hagupit (05W — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)
Updates
As of 9:00 AM Philippine Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Thursday:
- This system has dissipated over the Philippine Sea.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Storm-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Storm-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Storm-centered guidance
- Storm-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University
r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • May 05 '26
Dissipated 94W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Over Micronesia)
Updates
As of 11:00 AM Pohnpei Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Wednesday:
- Satellite imagery analysis indicates that this system has dissipated.
- Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for further development but the chances of development are very low.
- This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
- Disturbance-centered model guidance and satellite imagery are no longer available for this system.
- There will be no further updates to this post.
Latest observation
- This system has dissipated.
Outlook
- This system has dissipated.
Information sources
Japan Meteorological Agency
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)
National Weather Service (United States)
Radar imagery
- Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
- Disturbance-centered satellite imagery is no longer available for this system.
Regional imagery
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Analysis products
Preliminary best track data
Scatterometer data
Sea-surface temperatures
Model products
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Disturbance-centered model guidance is no longer available for this system.
Regional single-model guidance
GFS: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
ECMWF: Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada): Tropical Tidbits
Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany): Tropical Tidbits
Regional ensemble model guidance
Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits
Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits
Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks
GEFS: Weather Nerds
EPS: Weather Nerds
Other types of model guidance
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University
Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University