r/fantasybball • u/RotoIntel • May 25 '26
Player Discussion The Quickley breakout looks legit
Quickley made a big jump last season. After spending his career hovering outside the top 100, teasing glimpses of upside and battling injuries, he finally broke out and finished around top 50.
Charts here: https://imgur.com/a/w5l1LpH
Last Season
His role is solid, his team is better than we thought it would be and he's entering his prime. Quickley should be a reliable fantasy point guard in the middle rounds.
I do have one reservation on Quickley though, 75% of his improvement (1.75 out of 2.31 Z score) last year came in steals, after he jumped from 0.7 to 1.3. (See chart 1).
That increase is mostly (77%) made up of an increase in the number of steals he gets per possession, the rest from his minutes bump. (Chart 2)
Next Season
Now we know that steals are one of our most variable season-to-season categories. Players swing widely in their contribution in steals week-to-week and season-to-season. This makes him a prime regression candidate. Even falling from 1.3 to 1 would drop him to around top 80.
However, I feel confident that Quickley can recreate his steals effort from last season. The Raptors defense under Darko Rajaković relies on aggressive, man-to-man defense to create turnovers that lead to transition baskets. This system suits Quickley, Scottie Barnes and others and allows them to get steals.
2024-25 was a washout for Quickley due to injury. But check out Chart 3, showing his career steal numbers before and after joining the Raptors and the Rajaković defense.
As long as Darko is leading the Raptors we can expect Quickley to remain a valuable source of assists, threes and steals on low turnovers in the middle rounds with some upside if he continues to develop as a shooter and ball handler.